In the news
On 27 July, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated that Hezbollah rockets struck a football field in Majdal Shams, a village inhabited by Israel’s Druze community in the Golan Heights. The attack killed 40 civilians, including ten children. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack and claimed that an Israeli Iron Dome missile had hit the football field. 

On the same day, the IDF launched artillery shells into Hezbollah’s Shebaa village launch site. Additionally, The Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck Hezbollah bases in Lebanon’s Tyre, Bekaa Valley, and southern regions. Separately, the IDF stated that Israel’s Navy intercepted a Hezbollah drone heading towards Israel’s Karish gas fields.

On 28 July, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated it found debris from the Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket in Majdal Shams and claimed that only Hezbollah uses the Falaq-1. The IDF released a map of the rocket’s flight path from Lebanon and added that it did not fire any Iron Dome missiles during the attack. Israel’s Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, stated: “We will ensure Hezbollah, the proxy of Iran, pays a price” for the attack. 

On 30 July, the IDF stated that it killed the Hezbollah “commander responsible for” the Majdal Shams attack, Mushin Shukr, in a targeted airstrike in Beirut. Gallant said: “We have shown that the blood of our people has a price and that there is no place out of reach for our forces to this end.” According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, the strike killed three people and injured 74.

On the same day, Israeli officials stated that “the ball was in Hezbollah’s court,” and subsequent Israeli attacks would depend on Hezbollah’s response. Separately, Hezbollah said that it was mobilising its precision-guided missiles but did not want a war with Israel.

Issues at large
First, a brief note on the Golan Heights, Israel and Hezbollah. When Israel was formed in 1948, the Golan Heights region belonged to Syria. However, Israel captured two-thirds of the Golan Heights during the Six-Day War of 1967, sent settlers into the region and annexed it in 1981. The region is home to around 40,000 people, including around 25,000 Jewish settlers and around 23,000 Druze Arabs, who follow an offshoot of Islam. The Golani Druze are concentrated in four villages, including Majdal Shams. Although the International community rejected Israel’s annexation, the US accepted Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights because of the region’s strategic importance for Israel. However, Hezbollah considers Israeli control of the strategic Heights as an illegal occupation and cooperates with the Syrian government to return the region to the latter’s control. 

Second, large-scale displacement from border towns. The ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict displaced over 96,000 people from Israel’s northern border and over 95,000 from southern Lebanon. On the Lebanese side, most of those displaced are Shia Muslims who constitute the majority in the country’s bombarded southern regions. In northern Israel, most of the displaced people are Jewish civilians. According to the BBC and Al Jazeera, Israelis displaced from their homes expressed dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s government for failing to prevent the attacks and create secure conditions for their return.

Third, the Iran-Hezbollah links. Hezbollah’s present arsenal of around 120,000 to 200,000 rockets is imported or co-developed with Iran. Iran also assisted the armed group in reverse-engineering Israeli equipment. According to the IDF, Iran ordered Hezbollah to attack Israel after 7 October. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran supplied rockets, precision-guided missiles, and drones to Hezbollah after the Hamas attack, missiles including Almas (range: eight kilometres) and Scud-C (range: 600 kilometres), Fateh-110 (range: 250-300 kilometres) which can reach beyond Israel’s border areas and strike Israel’s economic and population centres and nuclear facilities.

Fourth, Iran’s “Ring of Fire” strategy and Hezbollah. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), Iran’s support for Hezbollah is part of its “Ring of Fire Strategy” implemented by the former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Qassim Soleimani. Iran aims to encircle Israel with IRGC-backed armed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen, and Shia groups in Iraq and Syria. According to FDD, Iran aims to gradually weaken Israel through protracted wars on the latter’s borders and eventually destroy Israel. Furthermore, Iran aims to maintain pressure on Israel to secure its nuclear programme and roll back Israel’s influence in Syria and Iraq.   

In perspective
Hezbollah’s attack on the Golan Heights and the Israeli counterattack marks a continuation of the ongoing controlled escalation in the region. While Israel has assassinated multiple Hezbollah leaders, it has refrained from a ground invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah has expanded the reach of its rockets but avoided targeting Israel’s critical economic and population centres. Both groups are likely to continue tit-for-tat attacks in the future but enjoy an unspoken consensus not to escalate.