In the news
On 29 July, Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) announced President Nicolás Maduro’s victory in the presidential elections. With 88 per cent of the votes counted by the CNE, Maduro secured 51 per cent while opposition candidate Edmundo González secured 44 per cent. The opposition dismissed the results and claimed that González won 70 per cent of the vote. They denounced the CNE as a supporter of Maduro. Subsequently, protests erupted across the country calling for electoral transparency. 

On 30 July, protestors marched in major cities after barred opposition leader Maria Corina Machado asked people to fight against “fraud by the regime.” The human rights group, Foro Penal, reported 11 deaths in the violent protests. The country’s Attorney General, Tarek William Saab, said that 749 protesters were arrested. 

The same day, Maduro responded that “an attempt is being made to impose a coup d’etat in Venezuela.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will” of the Venezuelan people. The Organisation of American States commented: “The events of election night confirm a coordinated strategy, unfolding over recent months, to undermine the integrity of the electoral process.”
 
Issues at large
First, a background to the elections. The elections were Maduro’s biggest threat to popularity as voters expressed their intention to end the 25-year rule of the United Socialist Party. Maduro warned of a “bloodbath” in case he lost. This is not the first time electoral transparency has been questioned. In 2018, several countries rejected the elections, where Maduro was re-elected. As per a poll, 26 per cent of voters were confident in the legitimacy of the 2023 elections, down from 59 per cent in 2012. There were fears of Maduro refusing to step down even if he lost, as he hinted at a “civil war” on 17 July.

Second, state suppression of the opposition. Opposition figures were suppressed during the election process. Machado was the coalition’s first choice; however, the government banned her and her first replacement, Corina Yoris, from running. In January 2024, the Supreme Court decided to ban Machado from holding public office for 15 years, alleging that she was planning to overthrow Maduro and had supported US sanctions against Venezuela. Dozens of opposition members were arrested in December and criminal investigations were opened against Machado’s supporters. Maduro controls the parliament and judiciary. The opposition claimed that the CNE acted on Maduro’s behalf.

Third, deteriorating socio-economic situation. After Maduro came to power in 2013, inflation surged to 130,000 per cent, oil prices plummeted, the US imposed economic sanctions, and there was a widespread shortage of essentials. In the 1990s, 3.6 million barrels of oil daily generated 95 per cent of export revenues; however, sanctions and mismanagement have left production below one million barrels per day. Although sanctions were temporarily lifted in 2023 after Maduro vowed to hold transparent elections, they were re-imposed after the ban on Machado in January. In 2022, the IMF described the situation as “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in half a century.” Wages remained low and food insecurity persisted, even after inflation cooled to 50 per cent. The economic situation resulted in more than 7.7 million Venezuelans leaving the country since 2014, predominantly to Colombia and the US. 

Fourth, stark divide in international responses. The US and UK called for swift and transparent publication of results. EU’s Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell, asserted that the “will” of the Venezuelans “must be respected.” Brazil called for the “impartial verification” of results, Chile said it would “not recognise” unverified results, and Argentina claimed it would “not recognise another fraud.” On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that Maduro would “continue to contribute to their progressive development,” China expressed readiness to enrich the “all-weather strategic partnership,” and Cuba’s president said Maduro’s victory “cleanly and unequivocally defeated the pro-imperialist opposition.” Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras also congratulated Maduro.
 
In perspective
First, the rise of the opposition. For many years, there were internal divides among opposition parties; however, this election saw them rallying together to defeat Maduro. Despite continuing obstacles, the opposition maintained its momentum, and the large voter turnout reflected public belief in the opposition coalition to bring a change in the country. 

Second, changing regional dynamics. After multiple Latin American countries criticised the elections, Venezuela announced the withdrawal of all diplomatic personnel from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Panama, and Uruguay. This indicates the potential for a shift in the regional dynamics and could lead to Venezuela largely being isolated in the region.