In the news
On 20 November, Bloomberg reported on Ukraine using the UK’s Storm Shadow long-range missiles into Russia. The missiles have the capacity to travel 250 kilometres. 
On 19 November, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said that Ukraine’s use of long-range ATACMS missiles would be a “new phase of the Western war.” The move was seen as a clear signal of conflict escalation and added that without US assistance, Ukraine would not have access to high-tech missiles.

On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin modified the nuclear doctrine. Peskov added that lowering the threshold for the nuclear strike will be observed closely; however, Russia will try to avoid a nuclear war outbreak and use nuclear weapons to the maximum extent.

On 18 November, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Blows are not inflicted with words,” indirectly mentioning that the missiles “will speak for themselves.” According to a US official, the move will “send a message” to North Korea, which has deployed 11,000 troops on behalf of Russia.

On 18 November, RT quoted Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova on the US lifting the ban on long-range weapons. She said: “Kyiv’s use of long-range missiles to attack our territory will mean the direct participation of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia.”

Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s apprehension and Biden’s reluctance. Since the war, Ukraine's military objectives have been to strengthen its defence and secure more advanced weaponry. This became more insistent when Ukraine failed in its spring counteroffensive in November 2023 and the demands for more air defence rose when Ukraine lost Bakhmut and Avdiivka oblasts. The total aid given by the US to Ukraine accounts for USD 106 billion and out of this close to USD 70 billion has been exclusively for weapons and military support. However, comparing the phase of the tactical weapons or advanced systems delivered or permissions to use has always been measured. The main reason has been the hesitance to send the latest advanced systems and fear of escalation. Two years later, advanced air defence systems and very recently F-16 fighter jets have been supplied to Ukraine. Despite the recent increased participation from North Korea and Iran, the recent decision comes more like a parting move by Biden as Trump warned to stop funding the war.

Second, recent Russian advances. In recent months, Russia was succesfull in its offensives launching the heaviest air bombardments across Ukraine and also targeting the communication and energy grid of Ukraine. Along with Iran’s Shahed drones, the direct engagement of North Korean troops has garnered larger criticism stoking fear among the West to improve their weapon support to Ukraine. Overall, the expansion of the battlefield into Kursk and the intervention of new actors have become the basis for the escalation of the war.

Third, the threat of nuclear weapons. Since 2022, any time the US or European countries announced the sending of advanced missile systems or larger military assistance, Russia has responded through a test or upgrade of its nuclear programme. On 25 September, Putin announced changes to the nuclear doctrine stating it would be used not just under attack but when faced with a “critical threat.” This came when the US-made ballistic missiles were used by Ukraine in the Kursk invasion. Similarly in May, when the UK announced to send armour-piercing shells containing depleted Uranium, Russia as a counter, sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. This was a strategic move to target Ukraine from the Belarusian border side and extend attacks into eastern and central Europe if threatened. This has helped in keeping NATO’s deeper engagement with Ukraine away. 
 
In perspective
First, the Russian offensive to aggravate. The announcements on nuclear doctrine upgrade could be a signal for a larger offensive by Russia. As the US Presidency is up for transition, Russia would attempt to fully secure the Donbas region. The deeper strikes into Kyiv, Ukraine’s energy grids and communications lines could reduce Ukrainian attacks into Russia and Donbas. This can be resonated with the ongoing battles in Pokrovsk and Toretsk in the Donetsk Oblast.

Second, Ukrain’s difficult road ahead. The supply and permit to use long-range missiles by the US and the UK give a limited scope for the Ukrainian military to strengthen its position on the ground. However, looking at the future trajectory of Ukraine against Russia, with no continued support from the US and Europe’s challenge in replenishing its defences, it is bleak for Ukraine. In less than two months of Donald Trump’s presidency, he has promised to end the war. On the ground, Ukraine can attempt to not lose more territory to Russia and strike deeper to place itself better at the negotiation table. Politically, echoing the recent statements of Zelenskyy, Ukraine has to find common ground for a compromise.