GP Short Notes # 959, 3 January 2025
In the news
On 28 December, Syria's new Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government launched a security campaign across the country against what it termed as "remnants" of previous President Bashar al-Assad's regime. SANA, the national Syrian news agency, claimed that police were conducting "a large-scale sweep operation" near the city of Latakia on Syria's north-western coast.
On 29 December, Syria's de-facto leader Ahmad al Sharra said that drafting a constitution would take three years and elections would take another four years after a comprehensive census of the Syrian population.
On 29 December, Syria's new authorities detained about 300 individuals, including informants, pro-regime militants and former military, as part of a crackdown on Assad loyalists.
On 2 January, following the visit of Syria's new foreign minister and defence minister to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia announced a humanitarian air bridge to Syria, delivering food, shelter, and medical supplies.
On 2 January, the UNHCR reported that more than 115,000 individuals returned to Syria from countries including Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon after the fall of the Assad government on 8 December. Turkey’s Minister of Interior, Ali Yerlikaya, stated that 35,113 Syrians had willingly returned home.
Issues at large
First, a brief note on the HTS government. The Syrian government under the HTS and Ahmad al Sharra has promised democratic institutions safeguarding the rights of women and religious and ethnic minorities. The current prime minister is Mohammad al Bashir, and Ahmad al Sharra acts as the country's de facto leader.
Second, foreign interests in Syria. Turkey had backed the Syrian rebels in the overthrowing of the Assad government. Although Turkey has officially denied supporting the rebel forces, following the fall of Assad, the Turkish embassy was reopened in Damascus and there were visits from high-level Turkish ministers. Ukraine and Saudi Arabia have had meetings and provided aid. The US has commuted a USD ten million bounty on Ahmad al Sharra. Israel has permanently occupied Golan Heights and is continuing its military presence. Israel argues that the 1974 border agreement became void when the HTS took control of the government. Although Israel has moved a few points past the buffer zone, its authorities claim of not moving toward Damascus.
Third, the remaining Assad forces. Ahmad al Sharra has announced that the individuals who carried out torture and detention with the Assad government will be prosecuted. Although Assad's regional strongholds, including the Alawite community, have acknowledged the new government, violent resistance is breaking out throughout the country with arrests of Assad loyalists.
In perspective
First, the Syrian government seems liberal, but the situation is unpredictable. The country's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is a former al Qaeda militant, although he claims to have renounced terrorism. HTS is a designated terrorist organization by the US. There are fears that unresolved tensions between Syria's ethnic and religious groups could impede al-Sharaa's efforts to unify the country and consolidate his rule. In 2017, Ahmad al Sharra ousted many of the organization's foreign fighters to embrace a Syrian national agenda. However, the reports of foreign fighters in the newly formed cabinet call this into question. The timeline set for the elections as four years leaves things unpredictable. The leadership has also called for a constitution before the elections. Ensuring the Syrian population’s say in the drafting of this constitution is also an important metric.
Second, foreign intervention. Turkey has denied supporting HTS. Meanwhile, the fighting in Syria's north continues. At the same time as HTS started its assault, the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey, launched a second assault on the Kurdish-Syrian Democratic Front-held territories. The US now maintains roughly 2000 troops in Syria, primarily in the northeast. The US, under Trump, has the opportunity to withdraw its presence from Syria and give the HTS government a chance. However, its needs guarantee that al-Sharaa and HTS have the power and desire to keep ISIS at bay and ensure the safety and inclusion of Syria's Kurds, even if it means breaking away from Ankara.