In the news
On 1 January, Russia launched drones in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, killing one person and injuring four others. On the same day, the Russian forces carried out a drone attack in Kyiv, killing two people and injuring several others.

On 31 December, Ukraine launched a drone attack, targeting the Yartsevskaya oil depot in western Russia’s Smolensk region. 

On 30 December, Russia and Ukraine exchanged over 300 prisoners of war, under the mediation of the UAE. According to BBC, this marked the 59th prisoner exchange since the beginning of the war in 2022. Russia's Ministry of Defence informed that around 150 Ukrainian prisoners were exchanged. 

On the same day, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that 189 Ukrainians including two civilians were transferred as part of the exchange. He said: "We are working to free everyone from Russian captivity. The return of our people from Russian captivity is always very good news for each of us." He further thanked the UAE and the team who worked for the success of the exchange.

Issues at large
First, drone attacks by Russia and Ukraine. The air forces of both countries have escalated attacks by launching drones. Russia has targeted the capital city of Kyiv and eastern Ukraine. Ukraine tried to damage Russia’s energy facilities and naval power. There were also extensive drone attacks on the Donetsk region by Russia, targeting Chasiv Yar and Zaporizhzhia towns, resulting in casualties and the destruction of infrastructure. The primary aim of these advances is to take over Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub of Ukraine that supplements the frontline military. Ukrainian soldiers use its railways and roads for transportation, movement of military supplies and evacuation. 

Second, the role of the UAE in mediating prisoner exchanges. The UAE has become a major mediator of prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. The country has mediated up to ten exchanges since the beginning of the war. The number of captives released under the mediation of the UAE is 2,484. It had previously managed to conduct a successful prisoner swap between the US and Russia in 2022. 

Third, the West’s military assistance to Ukraine. Since 2022, the US, the UK and the EU along with NATO have contributed military and financial assistance to Ukraine. The countries mostly work through the Ukraine Defence Contact Group led by the US which has 57 member states including the 32 NATO countries. The US has so far provided more than USD 61.4 billion as military assistance. Recently, the US Department of Treasury allocated around USD six billion as security assistance which included “High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), optically guided missiles, anti-tank weapons systems and air-to-ground munitions.” It additionally allocated USD 50 billion as part of the G7 assistance initiative. Besides the US, the UK proposed five principles for its support to Ukraine, offering training programs and defence systems. 
 
In perspective
First, Russia has been constantly advancing toward the cities of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region. The town termed as the "gateway to Donetsk" by Russia is crucial to gain the entire eastern Ukraine. It would also allow Russian troops to have an upper hand in capturing primary defensive positions and thus secure a commanding position over the surrounding areas, especially Chasiv Yar and Zaporizhzhia. 

Second, the limited role of mediators. The UAE showcases a neutral stance to the war while emphasising achieving a peaceful solution and de-escalation of the conflict. It has also become a platform of negotiation for both Russian and Ukrainian diplomats. The prospects of reaching a ceasefire between the warring parties could only be facilitated through mediators. Although countries like Slovakia, Turkey and the UAE are offering a platform for negotiation, none of the countries have taken a step in this regard. The mediator’s role seems limited as they have only been able to commission prisoner exchanges so far.

Third, continuing war despite peace efforts. Efforts like prisoner exchanges seem to have little or no impact on the war. The war has seen no improvement towards any peace initiatives even after 59 rounds of exchanges. There was a drone attack in Kyiv just one day after the exchange. Russia is continuing its advances in eastern Ukraine every day.