GP Short Notes # 964, 9 January 2025
In the news
On 3 January, India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal expressed concern about China's plan to build a hydropower project in the lower part of the Yarlung Tsangpo. Jaiswal said: “As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert-level as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory.” The USD 137 billion dam, which will be built at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, will generate 300 billion kilowatts of electricity annually.
On 6 January, Tibet was hit by a massive earthquake of 6.8 magnitude. The quake killed 126 people, injured 188, and 3,609 homes were destroyed. India, Nepal, and Bhutan also felt reverberations of the quake.
On the same day, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun affirmed that “the project will not have a negative impact on the ecological environment, geological conditions and the rights and interests related to water resources of downstream countries.”
Issues at large
First, a background to Yarlung Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra-Jamuna river basin. The river basin has different names in different countries from China to Bangladesh. The river originates in the Angsai glacier in the Himalayas. The basin is the lifeline to over 114 million people across China, India, and Bangladesh. The river stretches over 2880 kilometers, flowing from west to east on Tibet’s plateau. It takes a sharp U-turn at the Great Bend before entering India. As it enters Arunachal Pradesh in India, it is referred to as the Siang river and becomes Brahmaputra in Assam. It then merges with Jamuna as it enters Bangladesh and empties in the Bay of Bengal.
Second, China’s rationale and decision to build a dam. Elsewhere in China, its second-longest river Huang He (Yellow River) faces water scarcity due to demographic pressure, and unsustainable basin use. Yellow river is also responsible for 65 per cent of hydroelectric energy generation in China. There is also an over usage of the water (at 80 per cent). Hence, China wants to bring more water into the Huang He. The Chairman of the Beijing Shuotian Consultancy & Development Co, Guo Kai, 2005 suggested diverting some water from the Brahmaputra noting that there is “plenty of water and it won't make any difference to India,” with the objective to replenish the Huang He.
Third, geological vulnerabilities of the region. The region through which the Yarlung Tsangpo flows is part of the seismic zone, vulnerable to earthquakes. The dam's location poses engineering challenges and risk of earthquakes. Analysts believe the dam will have ecological impacts in the region. Additionally, these dams can reduce the sediment flow to the downstream waters and affect agrarian production. Not only in the Yarlung. In few other cases, there is opposition to China building dams. For example, the Kamtok dam in Tibet, where there are local protests against it. Organizations like Free Tibet demand that “Kamtok dam should be halted as it involves unacceptable risk not only in Tibet but downstream in China.”
Fourth, (lack of) agreements and objections by the lower riparian countries. Beijing has no water-sharing pacts with the lower riparian countries. In 2002, an MoU was signed to share hydrological information on the Yarlung/Brahmaputra River during the monsoon season but was halted following the Doklam standoff.
In perspective
First, the need for ecological, economic, social, and environmental risk assessment. The recent earthquake in Tibet puts forward the vulnerabilities of building dams in a seismic zone. The Tibetan Plateau is built on the tectonic plate with sizable seismic activities. The construction of the dam will have ecological impacts and the cascading destruction by earthquakes will lead to huge economic loss. Additionally, changing the natural flow of the basin will have an environmental impact posing a larger threat of climate change. A larger risk assessment and intervention is required by all stakeholders in the basin.
Second, a need for a transboundary basin-sharing agreement. The Yarlung Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra-Jamuna river basin has cascading effects on each other. Therefore, there is a need to have a transboundary agreement among the riparian states to hold shared responsibilities. This need was recognized by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) where in the 2023 Kathmandu, Nepal meeting formulated the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra Basin Network (YBBN), aiming to foster dialogue between riparian countries.