GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 897, 13 February 2025

Israel: The Gaza ceasefire and the threat
Vaishak Sreekumar

In the news
On 10 February, Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades spokesperson, Abu Obeida, accused Israel of systematically violating the ceasefire agreement and announced the delay in releasing hostages.

On 11 February, US President Donald Trump warned Hamas to release the agreed hostages by 15 February or would cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and "let hell break out." He reiterated the threat of "owning" the Gaza Strip and redeveloping it by displacing the 2.2 million Palestinians in the enclave to neighbouring countries.

On 11 February, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the ceasefire will end and Israel will resume "intense fighting" in Gaza if Hamas doesn't release "our hostages" by 15 February.

On 12 February, King Abdullah of Jordan, on accepting Palestinians from Gaza, said that he would do what's "best" for Jordan. Later, he reaffirmed Jordan's stance against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

On 13 February, Hamas stated that it would release Israeli hostages as planned and would continue to implement the Gaza ceasefire deal, indicating that three more Israeli hostages would be freed on 15 February.

Issues at large
First, the ceasefire deal and its progress so far. The ceasefire began on 19 January in a three-phase plan. The first phase of 45 days is supposed to see the release of 33 hostages by Hamas and 1900 prisoners by Israel. Hamas has so far released 21 hostages—16 Israelis and five Thai nationals and Israel has released 656 Palestinian prisoners from a list of nearly 2,000. The negotiations for the second phase are to see 17 more hostages released by Hamas and a complete military withdrawal by Israel, which is yet to begin. Meanwhile, the exchange process was disrupted after Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement. Hamas announced the postponement of the scheduled hostage release on 15 February "until further notice," raising concerns about the continuation of the negotiated exchanges.

Second, Hamas’ complaints. Hamas accuses Israel of violating the ceasefire deal by targeting Palestinians with gunfire in various parts of Gaza and delaying the return of displaced people to the heavily bombarded north. The militant group accuses Israel of delaying the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies, and not allowing tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, or rubble-removing machines into Gaza. The Gaza Ministry of Health said that 92 people were killed in Israeli military operations since the ceasefire came into effect.

Third, Israel’s complaints. Israel’s Minister of Defence Israel Katz condemned Hamas' postponement of the hostage release as a complete violation of the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli agency responsible for aid to Gaza, COGAT, rejected Hamas' claims of ceasefire violations, stating that significant aid, including tents, fuel, and generators has been delivered since the deal began. Moreover, concerns over the condition of the hostages continue, with Israeli officials expressing shock at the frail appearance of those released and fear that the remaining hostages may be in even worse condition.

Fourth, Trump's intervention and threats. The US President has urged Israel to cancel the ceasefire and hostage deal if Hamas does not release all remaining captives in Gaza by 15 February. Trump criticised the phased nature of the hostage releases, insisting that all captives must be freed at once rather than "in drips and drabs." Additionally, Trump has revived his controversial proposal for the US to take control of Gaza after the conflict ends, stating that Palestinians would not have the right to return under his plan. His remarks have drawn widespread criticism, with the UN and human rights groups condemning what they see as a form of ethnic cleansing. 

Fifth, the response from the Arab countries. Egypt and Qatar are intensifying diplomatic efforts to save the Gaza ceasefire agreement. In Saudi Arabia, public figures have criticized Trump's plan, with Prince Turki Al Faisal calling it a "mad ethnic cleansing plan." In Jordan, the proposal has unified public opinion against it, sparking mass protests.
 
In perspective
First, a fragile ceasefire. The contestations between Israel and Hamas come at an unfortunate moment as the second phase of the ceasefire is about to be negotiated. Although Hamas has returned to the proposed structure, their hesitation and attempt to withdraw will bring new tensions to the negotiations. 

Second, the dangers of Trump's plan. International organizations, European countries, and neighbouring Arab countries have opposed the plan, claiming that it is directly in violation of international law. Although such a proposal seems radical, the history of this region has been defined by the occupation and displacement by foreign powers, from the Sykes-Picot agreement to the UN partition of 1947. 

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