In the news
On 19 March, in a significant development on the ground, Israel’s military moved into Gaza along the Netzarim Corridor, with an objective to “create a partial buffer between the north and south of the Strip.” In February, Israel withdrew its military from this corridor, allowing the movement of aid, people and vehicles between the two sides.

On 18 March, Israel launched aerial attacks in Gaza, killing more than 400 people and effectively ending the ceasefire that came into place on 19 January. On the same day, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “This is just the beginning…We will keep fighting to achieve all of the war’s objectives.” Israel’s foreign minister said: “This is not a one-day operation…We will pursue military action in the days to come. We found ourselves in a dead end, with no hostages released and no military action. This situation cannot continue.”

Issues at large
First, recapturing the ceasefire roadmap and its first phase. Following hectic and complex discussions supported by the US and the Arab countries, Israel and Hamas agreed to a three-phase ceasefire on 19 January 2025. The first phase, despite a few hiccups, was largely successful; during this phase, Hamas released 25 hostages and handed over eight dead bodies to Israel. In return, Israel released 1900 plus Palestinian prisoners from its prisons. During this phase, Israel also allowed the return of aid to move in Gaza.

Second, the failure to start the ceasefire’s second phase. According to the original agreement, Israel and Hamas agreed to start the second phase of the ceasefire in the first week of March. This phase should have completed the release of all hostages by Hamas; Israel was to release a specified number of prisoners and withdraw its forces from Gaza. Israel demanded an extension of the first phase; it wanted to get the hostages released before any withdrawal of its troops. Trump sided with Israel on this demand and threatened Hamas that hell would break if the latter would not release the hostages.

Third, the emphasis on “release of all hostages” and “complete withdrawal.” After agreeing to implement a ceasefire in three phases, Israel and Hamas went back to their original position. For Israel, it was the release of all hostages, and for Hamas, it was the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Israel is apprehensive that the release of hostages may not help it to achieve the other main war objective – neutralizing the Hamas. On the other hand, Hamas is apprehensive that once the hostages are released, Israel will return to its original mission. Both sides want to maximize their position during the post-ceasefire period, endangering the present.
 
In perspective
First, the return of war. The six weeks of ceasefire that was in place since 19 January not only witnessed the release of hostages by Hamas and the Palestinian prisoners by Israel but also the movement of humanitarian aid into Gaza. More importantly, the first phase of the ceasefire witnessed the halting of military actions, aerial bombing and missile attacks. These actions meant some breathing space for the civilians in Gaza and comfort for the families in Israel whose members were kidnapped on 7 October. The failure to move into the second phase impacts both.

Second, the difficulties in continuing a ceasefire in conflict theatres. While it is easy to break a ceasefire, enforcing and extending it is a complicated task. This always requires a strategic intervention by the leadership and strong support to achieve it by those who are supporting the negotiation process from outside. In Gaza, as could be seen from the breakdown of the ceasefire, both are absent. Hamas and Netanyahu look at tactical gains, while the US and Arab states are unwilling or unable to pressurize the two primary actors in the conflict. This means the war would continue.