GP Short Notes # 914, 18 April 2025
In the news
On 14 April, as a part of the ongoing protests during the last few weeks, several high school students protested against replacing their teachers. The protestors claimed the teachers were suspended for supporting the opposition, while the government denied. During the protest, one of the students said: “We’re here to take a stand against the removal of our teachers without any valid reason.”
On 13 April, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Alain Berset, said that the group was concerned about human rights violations in Turkey after hundreds of students and protesters were arrested for demonstrating against Turkey’s President Erdogan’s decision to arrest Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption charges.
Issues at large
First, the current protets and political turmoil. The protests began after the arrest of the Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and a candidate for the next presidential election. The day previous to his arrest, Istanbul University invalidated his degree, making him ineligible for the presidential election. It was not his first arrest. Imamoglu received a two-year sentence and a ban from politics in December 2022 for insulting members of the Supreme Election Board. An appeal halted his sentence and political ban. His latest arrest is seen as a repression of democracy by the demonstrators and journalists. Imamoglu outperformed Erdogan in public opinion polls. Mass societal protests, their speed and scale, and the momentum of support for democratisation are seen to be of a surprising scale to the ruling government. These were Turkey’s biggest demonstrations in the last decade.
Second, Erdogan’s authoritarian leadership. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been in power for 22 years. In 2017, he introduced constitutional reforms, removing many checks on his authority, giving him control over courts, media, and national security. Turkey was seen as a textbook case for a competitive authoritarian regime by political experts, where the multiparty democracy was flawed but existed at least at the local level. The arrests of March 2025 seem to challenge this notion.
Third, the economic challenges. The stock market volatility and a sharp decline of the Turkish lira have led to foreign investors withdrawing funds, straining the economy. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the economy contracted 0.2 per cent in the second and third quarters of 2025, confirming a recession. Annual inflation remains high at 48.6 per cent, forcing the central bank to keep the key interest rate at 50 per cent for eight months.
Fourth, growing discontent among the youth. The current anti-Erdogan protests can be seen as the culmination of youth activists' discontent against the President for several issues. The young activists are flooding social media, boycotting companies they view as linked to the government, boycotting exams and organising roadside demonstrations expressing concerns over democracy and human rights. The Erdoğan government's actions, including bans on LGBTQ+ events and suppression of civil liberties, have drawn criticism from international human rights organisations as well.
Fifth, regional response. Following the protests and arrests in Turkey, the EU, along with Germany and France, raised concerns over the erosion of democratic norms. They claimed such acts as constraining economic and political ties with the EU. Whereas, NATO issued only generic statements on democratic values and expressed concern over the undermining of domestic stability. It has remained so since Turkey has been credible in negotiating deals in the Black Sea over the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Greece and Cyprus highlighted the authoritarian shift in Turkey. Overall, the response at the regional level has been mixed on democratic concerns.
In perspective
First, domestic instability. Turkey's present path under Erdoğan emphasises the difficulties of striking a balance between international diplomacy, economic resilience, and domestic stability. The president is taking a big political risk that may have several consequences. One of the consequences is making Imamoglu a popular political name, a hero or a martyr. FRANCE 24 has reported that fifteen million people participated in Turkey’s opposition CHP primary on March 23 for a show of support to ousted Imamoglu. Domestically, the government's attitude toward dissent and civil rights will decide how many democratic values can be maintained. The evolving events in Turkey are a vital case study of the interaction between an authoritarian government, economic difficulties, and foreign relations.
Second, international pressure. Turkey's future could very much be shaped by the reaction of the international community, especially from the EU. Their pressure to uphold democratic values and human rights may influence Turkey’s decision. It is also intriguing to note the significant absence of pressure from the US, which labelled it as an ‘internal decision-making matter’ of Turkey.