GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 612, 5 February 2022

Escalation and de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

What happened?
On 03 February, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was stated to have discussed the importance of strategic balance in Europe to maintain order and guarantee security and the need to "accelerate" the peace process in Eastern Ukraine. According to a Kremlin statement: "The substantive dialogue on the situation around Ukraine and issues related to the Russian initiative to develop long-term legally binding security guarantees for the Russian Federation was continued. The leaders exchanged views on the current state of affairs, including in the context of recent contacts with several international partners and France's Presidency at the EU Council. Vladimir Putin again emphasized the provocative statements and actions of the Kiev leadership, which run counter to the Minsk agreements."

On the same day, the Pentagon's press secretary, in a press briefing, mentioned: "Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, which again, is right out of their playbook. One option is the Russian government…is planning to stage a fake attack by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces against Russian sovereign territory or against Russian-speaking people the - to therefore justify their action. As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations."

On 2 February, the Pentagon Press secretary said in a briefing: "Our commitment to NATO Article 5 and collective defense remains ironclad. As part of this commitment and to be prepared for a range of contingencies, the United States will soon move additional forces to Romania, Poland and Germany." 

Earlier, on 01 February, in a press conference in Moscow, Putin accused the US of ignoring the Russian proposals put forward by Moscow. He was not satisfied with the US' response to Russian demands on NATO's troops and infrastructure removal from Eastern Europe and barred Ukraine from entering NATO. Putin mentioned how: "It's already clear … that Russia's principal concerns were ignored." There was also a call by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for governments to adhere to the 1999 agreement, the violation of which was the basis of the Ukraine crisis.

On 31 January, at the UNSC council meeting, the US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said: "The threats of aggression on the border of Ukraine ... is provocative. Our recognition of the facts on the ground is not provocative." The UNSC experienced a spillover of the tensions at the Ukrainian border as the countries accused each other of being provocative. She further stated how: "The provocation's from Russia, not from us or other members of this council." Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia responded: "Our Western colleagues are talking about the need for de-escalation. However, first and foremost, they themselves are whipping up tensions and rhetoric and are provoking escalation." Nebenzia also disputed the number of troops stationed at the border.
 

What is the background?
First, returning to the Normandy format. The return of the Normandy format talks can be seen as the last attempt after the failure of talks at the US-Russia talks, NATO-Russia Council (NRC) meet, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) special plenary meeting, and the recent Geneva talks that were held between US and Russia. The Normandy format seems hopeful in de-escalating the tensions and bringing progress to the situation in Ukraine.

Second, the failure of the Geneva talks. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on 21 January. The talks were called helpful and agreed to maintain dialogue to resolve the crisis. However, there were no positive responses from either side. After the negotiations, the US did not respond to the Russian proposal; in retrospect, it appears the Blinken-Lavrov talks in Geneva failed to make a breakthrough.

Third, the military escalation. The US announced its redeployment of 1,000 troops and an additional 2,000 troops to Poland, Germany, and Romania had instigated Moscow as they called it a "destructive" step, which heightened tension and reduced the scope for a political solution. Moreover, even NATO has scheduled to extend its Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) units in Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, further increasing its military escalation in the region. Furthermore, the US embassy in Kyiv, Washington, had also sent "close to 200,000 pounds of lethal aid, including ammunition for the front line defenders of Ukraine".

What does it mean?
With the revival of the Normandy format talks, one could also revisit the Minsk Protocol, a set of agreements signed in 2014 and 2015. Last week witnessed both escalation and de-escalation; the revival of the Normandy format is essential in this context. 

21 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 746
Sudan: Intense Fighting between the warring sides
20 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 734
On Climate Change, where is Pakistan currently?
19 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 733
Justice Isa: Beginning of a New Era?
18 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 753
Justice Isa takes oath as the Chief Justice of Pakistan
18 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 731
Justice Isa takes oath as the Chief Justice of Pakistan
15 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 752
Anticipated return of Nawaz Sharif

14 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 746
Morocco: Devastating earthquake kills thousands
14 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 745
Libya: Destructive floods kill more than ten thousand
14 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 743
EU's Digital Services Act: Three Implications

11 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 751
A nationwide effort to crack down on electricity pilferage
8 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 750
259th Corps Commander Meeting
8 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 749
Pakistan and Afghanistan: The Problem in Torkham
7 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 735
Gabon: Post-coup tensions

1 September 2023 | GP Short Notes # 747
The second hike. Now on Petrol, Diesel, Sugar and Pulses
31 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 730
Colombia: One year of “total peace” plan
26 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 742
The Mediterranean: Continuing migrant boat disasters
26 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 728
Niger: Continuing standoff
20 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 727
Ethiopia: Another conflict in Amhara
20 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 726
Moscow conference on international security

18 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 741
Latvia’s Prime Minister Resigns: Three Questions
17 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 724
Hawaii: The wildfires
17 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 723
Ecuador: Increasing political violence

13 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 722
Amazon Summit: A united front for saving the rainforest
13 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 721
Japan-Australia's Reciprocal Access Agreement
10 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 719
The War in Ukraine: Escalation after drone attacks
10 August 2023 | GP Short Notes # 718
Niger: Standoff after the coup
27 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 717
Protests over Judicial Reforms in Israel
27 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 716
Kenya: Anti-government protests turn violent

27 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 715
Niger: Another Coup 
25 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 739
Third EU-CELAC Summit: Three Takeaways
20 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 713
Syria: Stalemate over Aid extension

6 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 737
Protests over Quran-burning in Sweden: A Profile
6 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 709
Israel: Violence in Jenin
6 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 708
Mali: Termination of the UN Mission - MINUSMA
3 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 735
The French Summit for a New Global Financing Pact
2 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 706
Pakistan: Finally, a deal with the IMF
2 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 705
France: Summit for a New Global Financing Pact 

2 July 2023 | GP Short Notes # 704
New High Seas Treaty: Beyond National Jurisdiction 
29 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 703
Sudan: Nine Ceasefires, No Solution in Sight
29 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 702
Russia: Rise and Fall of the Wagner Revolt
25 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 701
Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts

22 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 699
Greece: Migrant boat disaster and humanitarian crisis
22 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 698
Uganda: Resurging insurgency
11 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 696
The Debt crisis in Pakistan
11 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 695
Domestic instability in Colombia
11 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 694
Political Crises in Maldives
8 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 693
Canada: Raging Wildfires and its fallouts

5 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 692
The US: Debt Ceiling Notches up higher
5 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 691
Turkey's Election: Erdogan's reign to continue
5 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 690
North Korea: Nuclear, Missile and now Space
1 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 687
Violence in Kosovo: Dangers of Escalation
1 June 2023 | GP Short Notes # 686
Russia and Ukraine: A New Drone Warfare
28 May 2023 | GP Short Notes # 684
G7 Summit: Unity, Polarization and Challenges

28 May 2023 | GP Short Notes # 683
Thailand elections: Victory of democracy
25 May 2023 | GP Short Notes # 681
Ukraine: Russia claims victory in Bakhmut
25 May 2023 | GP Short Notes # 680
Sudan: A Seventh Ceasefire

25 May 2023 | GP Short Notes # 679
Arab League: The Return of Syria
16 April 2023 | GP Short Notes # 673
France: Contended pension reform bill becomes law
9 April 2023 | GP Short Notes # 671
OPEC: Reducing crude oil production
9 April 2023 | GP Short Notes # 670
Space: NASA announces crew for the Artemis II mission
9 April 2023 | GP Short Notes # 698
France and China: The Macron-Xi meeting

2 April 2023 | GP Short Notes # 697
NATO: Turkey greenlights Finland’s membership
2 April 2023 | GP Short Notes # 696
Expanding Russia-South Africa relations
19 March 2023 | GP Short Notes # 694
AUKUS Submarine Deal

19 March 2023 | GP Short Notes # 693
Saudi Arabia: Resumption of diplomatic ties with Iran
8 March 2023 | GP Short Notes # 692
Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways

Click below links for year wise archive
2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018

Click here for old Short Notes