GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 874, 10 April 2024

Global Politics Explainer South Korean Elections 2024: A “mid-term referendum” on President Yoon’s
Femy Francis


On 10 April, the South Korean citizens will vote for their new National Assembly. South Korea’s unicameral legislature follows a Semi-Mixed Proportional system adopted in 2020. There are 300 seats in the National Assembly out of which 254 will be filled through direct voting and the remaining 46 will be allotted according to the votes cast for the parties. People are expected to cast two sets of votes, one for the direct district-level politician and one for the party. This measure aims to provide increased space and representation to smaller parties. In the 2024 elections, 699 candidates registered for 254 seats while 253 candidates registered for 46 proportional representation seats. The elections are called a “mid-term referendum” on President Yoon-Suk-Yeol’s administration as his win or loss would reflect his popularity as the president. The elections are also called “gladiator politics,” as two major political parties People Power Party (PPP) and the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) go head-to-head to gain more power. The elections are expected to further polarize South Korea as it is no more about who will win but, “This election is about who you want to punish, Yoon Suk Yeol or Lee Jae-Myung,” as pointed out by election analyst at Zeitgeist Institute, Eom Kyeong-young.

What are the Stakes?
The stakes of the elections are very high as it would set the momentum for the coming four years. When the PPP won the elections in 2022 the party won with a very small margin of 0.73 per cent against the DPP. President Yoon and their party though won the elections they had lacked votes in the National Assembly where they were toppled by the Democratic People’s Party. With the opposition-led parliament, it has been hard for Yoon’s party to push his policies in the last two years. This also means the election results would also decide how the remaining term will be for President Yoon, and set a momentum for the coming four years. The outcome will also affect the foreign policy of South Korea, where the general closeness with the US is accepted the closeness with Japan in light of being pushed by the US might see some problems due to a lack of consensus between the public and the opposition party. Yoon’s term also saw a more direct and openly aggressive approach to China rather than a balanced approach followed in the term before him under the liberal DPP. These results will though not directly affect these diplomatic stances but they can set a precedent for the 2027 South Korean Presidential election and what would become of the South Korean postulate in the global arena.

Who are the contesting parties?
People Power Party (PPP)- The party is currently headed by Han Dong-hoon who was a former Justice Minister. The PPP is a conservative party and under Han’s leadership, it aims to form a majority in the National Assembly. Under PPP’s administration, South Korea has become exponentially close to not only the US but reluctantly with Japan. Where it agreed to get compensation for the forced labourers and comfort women during WWII. It also proposed to remove the Gender Equality Ministry. The party leader and current President Yoon-Suk-Yeol faces heavy criticism for being out of touch and being more pro-rich, with his policies being more rich-friendly. Yoon’s career is mired in scandals and corruption that have significantly impacted his popularity.

Democratic People’s Party (DPP)- This is a liberal party that is currently led by Lee-Jai-Myung who lost the Presidential elections of 2022 by a slim margin. The party has been a vocal critic of Yoon’s policy. The party during this National Assembly election has been using the “Green Onion meme,” gone viral after a video of Yoon touting the prices (Green Onion) to be less while in reality is on the contrary, his party was accused of staging the event. The party leader is also marred with several scandals and was accused of bribery while he was the mayor of Seongnam.

Rebuilding Korea Party- This is the newest player in the bloc and the potential Kingmaker, the youngest party was founded in 2024 by the former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk. Though new the party has gained impressive support as it staged itself as an alternative to the two major parties. It has been highly critical of the Yoon administration's “prosecutorial dictatorship.” Cho has been vocal against the priorities of the two major parties. Where he believes the two major parties focus too much on international politics and ignore domestic concerns plaguing their society from within.

What are the concerns?
South Korean society’s development has seen some of the most impressive fleets. But the people are now increasingly getting worried about the slowly declining economy, unrealistic re-estate prices, and the inflationary prices of goods. The demography of South Korea is also slowly dwindling as the increasing number of the population refuses to marry owing to economic and societal constraints. While it is one of the fastest-growing economies it also has the largest pay gap between men and women, showing low gender parity when compared to other OECD countries. The recent doctor's strike would also directly affect the elections as many of the trainee doctors resigned over Yoon’s proposal to increase medical school seats. Other than the above, the political leader's images have been tainted by innumerable scandals involving them and their close ones, posing a conundrum for the voters as they remain unhappy with the choices given.  

References
Choe Sang-Hun, “South Korean Parliamentary Election to Set Tone for Rest of Leader’s Term,” The New York Times, 09 April 2024
Kaitlyn King and Natalia Slavney,  “South Korea’s 2024 Legislative Election Primer, ” Stimson, 04 April 2024
Raphael Rashid, “From the frying pan to the fire: green onions ignite voter anger in South Korea’s elections,” The Guardian, 09 April 2024
Sam Kim and Soo-Hyang Choi, “South Korea Election Hinges on Urban Voters and Inflation Worries,” Bloomberg, 08 April 2024

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