In the news
On 19 May, Ukrainian forces reported on Russian shelling on civilians in Kharkiv. According to the report, civilians were injured in Vovchansk. The town is located five kilometres from Russian border and 70 kilometres from north-east of Kharkiv. Whereas the TASS cited the failure of Ukraine armed forces to defend Russian offensive in Kharkiv was due to less resources. According to the report, Russia witnessed a huge advantage in terms of artillery shells leading to depletion of Ukrainian defences. It had exposed the exhaustion in the Ukrainian troops and “sloppily constructed” defence fortifications. 

On 18 May, Ukrainian army claimed the situation to be “under control” along with defending the assault in parts of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claimed on the possibility of Russian assault starting a wider offensive. He warned on the renewed offensive of Russia as “first wave” to a larger Russian campaign to capture Kharkiv oblast. On the same day, report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicated the Russian forces to have occupied 278 square kilometres between 09 and 15 May. 

On 10 May, White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby stated on the US expectations on Russia to make advances in the coming weeks but stressed that it sees no breakthrough. He added that the gap will be filled by US assistance enabling Ukraine to defend the over the months in 2024. 

Issues at large
First, ethnic and strategic importance of Kharkiv. In the Kharkiv oblast, Kharkiv city is Ukraine’s second-largest city. It was known for Russian speaking population and under the soviet period (1919-1934), the city became the centre for transport, industry and science with many industrial clusters, research centres and universities. Located 40 kilometres south of Russian border functions as an intersection to key highways. One of which links Russia’s Rostov-on Don to Crimea. The region is also home to several military facilities and defence brigades of Ukraine used for monitoring Russian military activities. The speed with which Russian troops advanced from one settlement to another in the north of Kharkiv has been possible due to its strategic advantage to target from Russia.

Second, Russia’s breach of Kharkiv border. Russia began to launch massive drone attacks on Kharkiv in response to the increased border attacks in Belgorod in December 2023. While Russian defence ministry continued to use long-range precision weapons to strike at the military complex of Ukraine in January. Zelenskyy demanded for more air defence such as “Patriot, IRIS-T, and NASAMS” as US Congress prolonged its decision in granting military aid to Ukraine. These attacks continued through February, March and April with exchanges between Ukraine and Russia over Kharkiv and Belgorod. Russia began to make quick and short advances in May through usage of ballistic missiles (S-300 and S-400) and guided bombs. Russian forces attempted to breach through the Kharkiv border using armoured vehicles and heavy shelling through new wave of counteroffensive and succeeded in progressing by 10 May. By end of May, Russia advanced 10 kilometres and encircling partially in the north of Kharkiv oblast, capturing Vovchansk town (located 74km (45 miles) from Kharkiv), Starytsia and Lyptsi villages in the north and north-east.

Third, challenges to Ukrainian forces. The US aid package containing military equipment, funding to purchase weapons and munition from US stockpile and enhancement of Ukraine’s defence industrial base. Additionally, the Ukrainian forces were prohibited from using US aided weapons to strike Russia till approval. This delay by the US Congress until April left Ukrainian forces in a weaker defence position. Apart from this, Ukraine government’s limitation for quicker mobilisation also added to the military personnel shortage resulting in some areas in frontline critical. Compared to the 2022, Ukraine counteroffensive, Russian forces were also observed to be technologically advanced while Ukraine struggled to prevent losing of villages in the north and north-east of Kharkiv. 

In perspective
First, challenge in capturing Kharkiv city. Observing the trends from the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, which prolonged for months costed Ukraine and Russia an exhaustive count of military personnel and weapons. Given Kharkiv’s expanse of 350 kilometres, Russia would need more than a year, massive troops and enormous aerial systems to continue its air attacks. The speedy advance of Russian forces can be to capture the Kharkiv city which is only 40 kilometres from the border. One of the objectives to break into Kharkiv could be to destroy the military depots, communication hub and brigades responsible for launching attacks into Russia’s Belgorod region. This will be determined in the coming months depending on Ukrainian defence capabilities and delivery of US air defence systems.   

Second, geographic advantage of Kharkiv. The southern Ukraine has been the focus in the past six months and it has been easier for Russia to maintain its position in the southern and eastern Ukraine due to the proximity. Unlike Bakhmut and Avdiivka located in the centre of Ukraine, Kharkiv region forms part of Russia’s soviet and ethnic history flourishing with a larger Russian speaking population and serving as industrial hub for Ukraine. Geographical and cultural proximity along with Ukraine’s military hubs makes it an attractive target for Russia to destroy and extradite people.