In the news 
On 31 May, US President Joe Biden proposed a new deal with three phases relating to releasing hostages and a ceasefire. Phase one would involve a ceasefire, hostage-prisoner swap, inflow of aid, and negotiations between Israel and Hamas. In phase two, Hamas would release all hostages, and Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza. Phase three would involve a reconstruction plan for Gaza. Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages. Biden stated: "As long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, the temporary ceasefire would become permanent." 

On 1 June, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that there would be no permanent ceasefire in Gaza until Israel's war aims were unfulfilled. He said: "Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel." He added: "The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter."

On 4 June, Hamas stated that the group would not agree to any proposal that does not assure a "permanent ceasefire." Previously, on 31 May, Hamas said that the group viewed the proposal "positively and constructively". 

On 4 June, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Egypt urged Hamas to accept Biden's proposal. 

Issues at large 
First, a brief background to previous ceasefires. The US brokered the first and only successful ceasefire in November 2023. It was in place from 24 to 30 November 2023, during which Hamas released 105 hostages. Israel allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and freed Palestinian prisoners. Ever since, there have been multiple proposals and efforts. In January 2024, the US, Qatar and Egypt proposed a deal which included a ceasefire and rule of the Palestinian Authority over Gaza. In February, the US suggested "humanitarian pauses" in Gaza for aid inflow. Israel rejected both these deals. On 6 May 2024, Hamas accepted a Qatar-and-Egypt-backed proposal that included a three-stage truce ending in a permanent ceasefire. However, Netanyahu rejected the deals again and began the land offensive in Rafah.

Second, conflicting endgames of Hamas and Israel. Hamas wants a complete and permanent ceasefire and subsequently return to the status quo. For that, it rejects any phased withdrawal or temporary cessation of hostilities. However, Israel has two war aims- destroying Hamas and bringing back hostages. Israel prefers a temporary ceasefire until all hostages are released. However, it seeks to continue fighting Hamas until its capabilities are destroyed.

Third, Israel's internal political divide on ceasefires and endgames. For Netanyahu and two far-right parties, Israel should reject Biden's ceasefire proposal and retain control of Gaza after the war. The parties say that they will topple Netanyahu's coalition government if he accepts Biden's deal. For Netanyahu's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and War Cabinet Benny Gantz, Israel should accept Biden's proposal and hand over Gaza's civilian affairs to the Palestinians (Gallant) or an international coalition (Gantz). The two ministers are threatening to resign if Netanyahu insists on Israeli control of Gaza as an endgame.

In perspective
First, Hamas' surprise attack and the disproportionate Israeli response have revitalized the former's support base. The group's public support in Gaza was declining before 7 October. However, the loss of civilian lives and the destruction of infrastructure as a result of Israel's military strikes has radicalized ordinary Gazans and increased their support for Hamas. After reaping these benefits, the group wants to re-establish the status quo ante. 

Second, Hamas wants a permanent end to Israel's military strikes. Israel is willing to take a temporary pause until all hostages are released but continue the military strikes until Hamas' capabilities are destroyed. 

Third, Biden's proposal is unlikely to succeed. The terms are similar to the 6 May proposal that Israel had rejected. Biden has marked Hamas as the only obstacle to peace, absolving Israel of responsibility to cooperate. Historically, the US rarely imposes costs on Israel for being a poor actor. Netanyahu knows from experience that he will face no costs if he backs down from the deal. For instance, in May 2024, Biden's administration said it would withhold arms from Israel for crossing the US' red lines on Rafah. Washington had to resume the shipments because of pro-Israeli sentiment from Congress. The US has historically given Israel a carte blanche. This time is no different.