GP Short Notes # 912, 29 May 2024
On 23 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. The main focus was Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons exercises. In the press conference that followed, Lukashenko stated that: “Belarus intends to further develop its nuclear industry relying on Russian technology…There are no irreconcilable differences between our countries... We must honestly admit that we have resolved all issues.” The two leaders together drafted a common industrial policy of the Union State by first removing the protective measures and restrictions on trade. This would facilitate in conducting a single macro-economic and monetary policy. In a joint statement, Putin said: “We cooperate in three major areas: power generation, oil and gas, and nuclear energy. We have made decisions in each of these areas, and those decisions are working well.”
In a joint press conference between Lukashenko and Putin,
Lukashenko said: "We are aimed at further development of the nuclear industry in Belarus based on Russian technologies. We examined in detail the issues of industrial cooperation, the development of mechanical engineering and machine tools..."
On the economic investment Putin said: "Russia has invested over five billion dollars in the Belarusian economy. Two and a half thousand Russian companies operate in the republic; joint projects are being implemented in strategically important industries, such as the production of automobiles and machine tools, agricultural machinery, microelectronics, and civil aviation. The priority sector of bilateral cooperation is energy."
On cultural and humanitarian, Putin said: "Russian-Belarusian cultural and humanitarian cooperation is multifaceted, scientific and educational exchanges are carried out, joint programs for the patriotic education of youth and the preservation of common historical memory are being implemented, much is being done to create the most favorable conditions for mutual trips of citizens, to develop their contacts and direct communication with each other."
Belarus and Russia: A brief history
Belarus was among the founding forces of the Soviet Union with a shared eastern Slavic cultural ancestry. Belarus’s location between the Baltic States and Ukraine on the north-south axis and Russia and Poland on the east-west axis served as a major defensive stronghold and a forward base for Moscow’s power projection. In 1991, Presidents Boris Yeltsin of Russia, Kravchuk of Ukraine, and Shushkevich of Belarus signed the Belovezha Accords in 1991, which recognized each other's independence and established the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in place of the Soviet Union.
During the Cold War, Belarus hosted Soviet nuclear weapons. After the disintegration, Russia joined hands with Belarus to create an integrated Eastern European Union to counter the Western advances in the Baltic. Belarus was Russia’s first ally; it joined Russia’s multilateral defence and economic projects: the Collective Security Treaty Organization, created in 1993, and the Eurasian Economic Community, formed in 2000.
In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea, Belarus maintained its independence from Russia and tried to position itself as a neutral ground for diplomacy between Russia, Ukraine, and Western European powers. However, there was a phase of intensified ties between the two countries in 2020, when the Belarusian ruler Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s presidential power was on the verge of falling. Several anti-government protests within the country forced him to turn to Russia for political, economic, and security assurances.
Relations after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
With the onset of the war in 2022, Belarus offered its territory and its military, transport, and logistical infrastructure to the Russian army. However, the Belarusian military was not taking part in the hostilities. Belarus allowed Russia to stage its assault on Kyiv from within the territory and has served Russia as a logistic hub for the repair of damaged aircraft, war machinery, and ammunition. Additionally, Belarus provided medical and hospital support for the Russian Armed Forces during the war.
In October 2023, Russia stationed its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus As early as spring 2022 they began to build defensive lines along Ukraine’s border with Belarus by Engineering structures and fortifications (such as anti-tank ditches) to prevent a possible offensive. However, the Ukrainian General Staff believes that the risk of Belarussian involvement in the war is slim since it will only put its national sovereignty and internal stability at risk. Minsk’s restrained response to the incident when an S-300-type missile launched from Ukraine landed on Belarusian territory on 29 December 2022 is further corroboration of Lukashenka’s reluctance to get involved in any such scenario. Furthermore, The Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus continued to work in Minsk indicating that Ukraine wants to maintain the diplomatic channel of cooperation so that Belarus is not involved in full-scale participation.
References
“Putin in Belarus to discuss security, tactical nuclear weapon exercises,” Reuters, 24 May 2024
“News conference following Russian-Belarusian talks,” President of Russia, 24 May 2024
“Russia, Belarus need additional measures to ensure security: Russian defence chief,” Anadolu Agency, 24 May 2024
“The Belarus-Russia Alliance: An Axis of Autocracy in Eastern Europe,” Council on Foreign Relations, 27 September 2023
“The role of Belarus in Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Chatham House, 25 October 2023
“Russia’s war on Ukraine has strengthened Lukashenka but undermined Belarus,” Chatham House, 04 December 2023
Kamil Kłysiński and Piotr Żochowski,” The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine,” Centre for Eastern Studies, 10 February 2023