GP Short Notes # 914, 21 June 2024
In the news
On 16 June, the EU member states and the US along with Ghana, Kenya, Argentina, Columbia, the Philippines, Qatar and Guatemala signed a joint communique. It stated: “We reaffirm our commitment to refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine.”
On 15 June, 90-plus countries attended the Summit on Peace in Ukraine hosted by Switzerland in Bürgenstock. China and Russia were absent; the former having boycotted the event and the latter not being invited. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “I believe that we will witness history being made here at the summit. May a just peace be established as soon as possible.”
On 14 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a peace plan if Ukraine withdrew its troops from the four annexed regions, agreed with Russia’s territorial gains, gave up on its NATO ambitions and confirmed its neutral status.
Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s peace efforts. In October 2022, Zelensky began the idea of “peace for Ukraine.” The idea of a peace plan has encouraged other actors including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China to initiate negotiations. Although no progress has been recorded between the key actors, Ukraine and Russia, Zelensky continued to gather support through a series of diplomatic meetings across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, which aided in accumulating support during the peace summit. Some other key peace efforts were the 10 February Normandy talks led by France and Germany, and the Minsk agreement talks led by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Except for these, there has been no landmark peace talks mediated by the West.
Second, Russia’s criticism and response. Moscow criticised the summit describing it as a campaign by leaders of the EU members to garner votes during the EU elections. Russia’s proposed peace plan included demands for Ukraine to give up plans to join NATO and concede territories in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Third, the international responses. India, South Africa and Mexico abstained from voting despite attending the summit. Countries including Turkey and Saudi Arabia shared China’s view toward the summit being an echo chamber and that Russia’s involvement is required for any peace process to be successful.
Issues at large
In March 2022, at the UN General Assembly, 141 members called Russian troops to leave Ukraine. However, during the peace summit, Ukraine gathered the support of only 78 countries. Besides, Jordan, Iraq and Rwanda backed out of the communique days after the Summit. This implies signs of war fatigue, and a preference to maintain relations with Russia, its ally China and the Western powers that support Ukraine. Further, the lack of initiative to include Russia in its peace talks imply that the summit was aimed not to end the war but to put forth Ukraine’s perspective and its conditions for peace.
Meanwhile, Russia’s dismissal of Ukraine’s peace plan implies that Russia does not want peace without victory. Putin has indicated that Ukraine’s sovereignty belongs to Russia and that any settlement without Ukraine in Russia’s control is unacceptable.