In the news
On 25 June, US Defence Secretary Llyod Austin met his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant. Austin warned that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah may spark a regional confrontation. He sought a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. 

On 24 June, US Air Force General Charles Q Brown said that Iran “would be more inclined to support Hezbollah” than Hamas if it felt Hezbollah was “significantly threatened.”

On 23 June, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin and Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant said that the IDF would lower its intensity of fighting Hamas and shift its focus to the northern border with Lebanon. 
 
On 18 June, Hezbollah released footage of Israel’s sea and airports being captured using surveillance drones. The same day, Israel’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, said that the country was finalising operational plans for a Lebanon war, in which “Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely beaten.” 

Issues at large
First, a brief note on Hezbollah and Lebanon. The Hezbollah was formed after the 1982 Israel-Lebanon war. On 6 June 1982, the IDF invaded southern Lebanon to eliminate the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) units sheltering there. Israel’s military laid siege to Beirut and occupied territories in Southern Lebanon. The Hezbollah (meaning “Allah’s party”) was formed the same year to remove Israeli forces from Lebanon and resist Western influence in the Middle East. Iran has militarily and financially supported Hezbollah since its inception, using its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It enjoyed support among Lebanon’s Shias, who resided in the country's southern, Beirut and Dahiya regions, which were the worst affected by Israel’s attacks and occupation. In 1985, Hezbollah released a manifesto, defining itself as a political party and a resistance group, and identified the destruction of Israel as one of its primary goals. 

Second, a brief overview of Hezbollah-Israel relations since the beginning of the Gaza War. On 8 October, Hezbollah expressed solidarity with Hamas' attack on Israel and launched rockets into Israel. Since then, the armed group regularly carried out numerous missile attacks on northern Israel. In June 2024, it began using drones to attack Israeli military positions. Israel carried out airstrikes, artillery shelling, air defence systems, IDF raids, and radar-jamming systems to counter Hezbollah. According to the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, both sides have attacked each other around 4400 times.

Third, Lebanon and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Lebanon does not recognise the state of Israel. The two have been at war since 1948. However, Lebanon recognises the state of Palestine. For both Lebanon and Hezbollah, Israel should end all operations on the Lebanon border and return the disputed Shebaa farms region, which Israel annexed in 1981. For Israel, these regions are legitimate Israeli territory post-annexation. For Lebanon, Hezbollah shall be disarmed and continue as a political organization. For Israel, they shall be defeated militarily. However, Hezbollah's influence over Lebanon’s political system complicates relations between Lebanon and Israel. 

Issues at large
First, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict might expand into the larger region with Iran and the US backing Hezbollah and Israel, respectively. Such a conflict would intensify the US presence in the Middle East. With its focus shifting towards China, the US wants to avoid further escalation and expansion of the conflict. Iran could use any intensified conflict on its Lebanon border as a justification to declare its nuclear status.

Second, Israel’s capabilities to wage a two-front war. In the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973, Israel fought on multiple fronts and emerged victorious. However, in those wars, it faced the organised militaries of the Arab countries. Today, its threats are non-state actors. Hamas and Hezbollah use guerilla tactics, tunnel networks and hide among civilians. In case of a sustained conflict on both fronts, Israel would face greater challenges to winning a two-front war.