Photo Source: EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in
The World This Year
Ethiopia and Sudan in 2023: Governance in deadlock
Anu Maria Joseph
Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
|
Ethiopia and Sudan have been in the spotlight this year. In November 2022, Ethiopia signed a peace deal with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), giving hope that the ethnic conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region would end. However, the peace agreement had several loopholes that led to ethnic conflicts across the neighbouring regions of Afar, Amhara and Oromia. The skirmishes began after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed demanded that all ethnic militias, including Amhara’s Fano militia, Tigray’s TPLF and Oromo’s Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) be integrated into the Ethiopian federal force.
In Sudan, the transitional military government was supposed to lead to civilian rule in 2024. However, Sudan is in a bigger crisis with an ongoing civil war between two military heads- Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Hamdan Dagalo of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict, which started as a power struggle, has evolved into a larger conflict spreading across the capital, Khartoum, and the cities of Omdurman, Bahri, Wad Madani and Port Sudan. The conflict has also evolved into ethnic conflict across West Darfur, South Darfur, Central Darfur, Nile and Kordofan. Besides, the paramilitary group has begun targeting the states of North Darfur and Al Jazira. In between, the Arab and non-Arab clashes are escalating, reminding of the Darfur conflict in 2003. Several ceasefires failed due to a lack of commitment and compliance. The RSF has gained significant ground in the capital, Khartoum, as well as other regions. While the conflict is intensifying and spreading, SAF and RSF aim to gain legitimacy by establishing parallel governments in Port Sudan and Khartoum, respectively.
Sudan and Ethiopia, two major actors in the Horn of Africa, have become the conflict hotspots of the African continent in 2023. The Sudanese Revolution 2019, which ended 30 years of Omar al Bashir’s rule, was a bigger achievement for Sudan in reaching a civilian government. Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel Peace Prize for resolving the conflict with Eritrea was a focal point for the international community, analysing how Ethiopia would evolve as a better democracy. However, in 2023, both countries have taken a steep downturn.
Major Issues in 2023
First, the ethnic differences. In Ethiopia, deep ethno-nationalist sentiments are the drivers behind the inter-ethnic clashes. From 1991 to 2018, the minority TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics, fueling ethnic animosity from the Afar, Somali, Oromia and Amhara communities. When Abiy Ahmed came to power, ending the decades-long Tigray dominance, other ethnic groups believed the new government was an opportunity to address years-long ethnic marginalisation. Instead, Abiy’s policies escalated the ethnic tensions. Abiy’s aggressive measures to unify Ethiopia were not welcome by any of the ethnic groups. Deep-printed ethno-nationalist sentiments and socio-economic insecurities of each ethnic community forced them to defend each other using their regional ethnic militias.
In Sudan, for the past twenty years, ethnic conflict has been prevalent in the Darfur region. Besides Darfur, the Nile and Kordofan regions are also affected by conflict between Arab and non-Arab ethnic groups. The tensions are over land, water and resources. The civil war has put the governance in these ethnically fragile regions in jeopardy. Besides, RSF and SAF taking sides with Arab and non-Arab militias would lead the civil war to a larger ethnic tragedy.
Second, a fragile state. State fragility, state failure and state collapse are common in African countries that have followed an alien model of governance and nation-building introduced by their colonial masters. Consequently, these countries have faced several governance challenges including interethnic conflicts, massive displacement, multiple massacres, humanitarian crises and proliferation of militant groups.
In Ethiopia, TPLF’s rule for decades was majoritarian, where the Tigray ethnic group handled the power hierarchy for years. Although Ethiopia enjoyed relative peace during the TPLF regime, decades-long ethnic grievances were suppressed under their control. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed initially had a better vision of inclusive centralised Ethiopia. However, the aggressive policies that he opted for subsequently backfired. A sudden change to a federal society divided under ethnic identity was rejected. Abiy’s aggressive policies on a progressive vision failed with the outbreak of several ethnic conflicts. The inability of the state to address the underlying issues has increased the tendency of ethnic groups to rely on their means of security. Ethiopia has become fragile and is slowly descending into a state of failure.
Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has been on a rollercoaster in its search for inclusive and sustainable governance. However, governments and institutions have failed so far. Political elites and military leaders who came to power in Sudan adopted political violence, ethnic upper hand and inequitable means of wealth distribution to serve their interests. The country had to go through two civil wars and the separation of South Sudan. The military elites ignore challenges posed by unresolved ethnic and regional grievances and identity politics. Thus, the lack of political will for conflict resolution and a civilian transition has delayed all aspects of inclusive governance in Sudan. Sudan as a state has failed and is collapsing.
Third, escalation in conflicts. The conflict in Ethiopia has increased in number this year with a spread to Amhara, Oromia, Afar and Somali regions. Additionally, the conflict is intensifying with limited efforts addressing the root causes. Abiy’s government has failed to gain public legitimacy. Regional efforts, including the African Union’s, are minimal due to Abiy’s influence in the organisation and international support to Aby’s government.
In Sudan, the conflict is escalating in terms of geography and intensity. What started in Khartoum has spread to Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan and the peripheral states of Darfur, Kordofan, Al Jazira and Nile. Regional efforts to end the conflict in Sudan are being ignored. Although the external actors can bring the warring parties to the negotiating table, implementing those efforts remains challenging. They have failed to propose a ceasefire that matches the conflict context.
2024: Looking Ahead
Ethiopia and Sudan will be in the spotlight in 2024 as well. Unless Abiy’s approach to the ethnic tensions is pragmatic, addressing the underlying issues, a peaceful Ethiopia is Utopian. An escalation of conflict can be witnessed in 2024. The fragile state will likely evolve into a failed state.
In Sudan, resolving the conflict and the power struggle remains elusive, with both sides trying to legitimise their leadership. Similar is the trajectory of a civilian transition. The revolution is dead, and the state has failed. The humanitarian crisis would likely increase in both countries with high casualties, ethnic violence, human rights atrocities, war crimes, poverty and displacement.
About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Bookmark |
GP Team
75 Years of NATO
GP Team
Elections in Senegal
GP Team
Taiwan Election 2024
Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.
Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
Richa Chandola | Richa Chandola is an independent scholar.
Peru in 2023: Political Tensions, Civil Unrest, and Governance Issues
Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.
Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
Shreya Pandey | Shreya Pandey is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Xavier’s College, Ranchi. Her research interests include EU-India relations, and current trends in international relations.
Russian Invasion on Ukraine: An assessment of its impact upon unity, economy and enlargement of the EU
Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.
The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
Rishika Yadav | Rishika Yadav is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Finland in 2023: Challenges at Russia's border
Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.
Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Ethiopia and Sudan in 2023: Governance in deadlock
Nuha Aamina | Nuha Aamina is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy, St Joseph's University.
Thailand: Economic stability despite political instability
Alka Bala | Alka Bala is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy, St Joseph's University.
Myanmar in 2023: Extended Emergency, Political Instability and State-led violence
Sayani Rana | Sayani Rana is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace, and Public Policy, St Joseph's University, Bangalore.
Australia in 2023: Challenges of Economy, Employment and Immigration
Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.
China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.
China and East Asia
Femy Francis | Femy Francis is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies.
China in 2023: Cracks in the Great Wall
Amit Gupta | Dr Amit Gupta is an international security and economics analyst based in the USA
The US: The Year of Living Dangerously?
Kuri Sravan Kumar | Kuri Sravan Kumar is a PhD scholar at the Department of East Asian Studies, University of Delhi.
North Korea in 2023: Military buildups and Close Connections with Russia
Yogeshwari S | Yogeswari S is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.
South Korea in 2023: Addressing Climate Change and the Global Supply Chains
Abhishek Ranjan | Abhishek Ranjan is a PhD student at the Korean Studies, Centre for East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
East Asia in 2023: Big Power Politics and New Defence Strategies
GP Team
Henry Kissinger: A profile
GP Team
UK’s AI Summit
Avishka Ashok
China: A complicated economic recovery
Padmashree Anandhan
Europe: An impending energy crisis and its economic fallouts
Ankit Singh
Defence: Towards a new cold war
Riya Itisha Ekka
Brazil: Managing Bolsonaro’s legacy
Apoorva Sudhakar
Africa: Despite the elections, democratic backslide will continue
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan in 2023: Between elections, economic turmoil and climate crisis
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Sri Lanka in 2023: A troubling economy and an unstable polity
Avishka Ashok
Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Newsmakers: From Putin to Rushdie
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Rest in Peace; Queen Elizabeth. Mikhail Gorbachev, Pelé...
Ankit Singh
Global economy in 2022: The year of cooling down
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Digital world: Elon Musk and the Twitter Chaos
Madhura Mahesh
The FTX Collapse: Depleting cryptocurrencies
Harini Madhusudan
The Space race: Scaling new technological feats
Avishka Ashok
G20: More challenges
Akriti Sharma
COP27: Hits and Misses
Padmashree Anandhan
The Ukraine War
Poulomi Mondal
French Exit from Mali: More questions than answers
Mohaimeen Khan
Yemen, Syria, and Sudan: Continuing humanitarian crises
Padmashree Anandhan
NATO and the Madrid Summit: Expanding defence frontiers
Padmashree Anandhan
Elections in France, Sweden, and Italy: The rise of the right
Janardhan G
North Korea: Missile Tests Galore
Avishka Ashok
The Taiwan Strait: Political and military assertions
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia: Uncertainties despite ceasefire
Apoorva Sudhakar
Tunisia: The end of the Jasmine Revolution
Rashmi BR
Iraq: Deadlock and breakthrough
Kaviyadharshini A
Iran: Anti-government protests
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Sri Lanka: Political and Economic Crises
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: The coup and after
Vignesh Ram
Anwar Ibrahim: Malaysia's new Prime Minister
GP Team
Floods and Emergency in Pakistan
GP Team
Regional round-ups
GP Team
New US assistance for Ukraine
GP Team
Russia's gas ultimatum to Europe
GP Team
The Complete Compendium for 2021
GP Team
The Americas in 2021
GP Team
Europe in 2021
GP Team
Middle East and Africa in 2021
GP Team
South Asia in 2021
GP Team
Europe's Energy Crisis
GP Team
The New Afghanistan
GP Team
US, South Korea and Thailand
GP Team