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Padmashree Anandhan
31 December 2025 |
What happened?
During 24 and 25 June, the NATO summit in e Hague concluded with the participation of the 32-member alliance. NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, focused on reinforcing deterrence amid renewed concerns over Russia. He declared: “It is simply unthinkable that Russia, with an economy 25 times smaller than NATO’s, should outproduce us. We must win this new war of production.”
Ahead of the summit, US President Donald Trump raised doubts over ambiguity around Article 5. He said: “Depends on your definition,” but added, “I’m committed to being their friends.”
The three major commitments from the Hague Declaration were increasing the defence spending to five per cent. 3.5 per cent on “core defence requirements" and 1.5 per cent towards “critical infrastructure, defend our networks, ensure our civil preparedness and resilience, unleash innovation, and strengthen our defence industrial base.” Second, the commitment to defence and deterrence. The NATO alliance recognises hybrid threats like cyberattacks and assured that the increased defence investment will help NATO to strengthen its capabilities on land, sea, air, space and cyberspace. Lastly, on Ukraine, the alliance has resolved to commit EUR 35 billion additional security aid and stresses on ensuring Ukraine’s long-term defence and boosting its capacity to prevent future aggression. The UK announced GBP 70 million in air defence aid to Ukraine, while Germany announced plans to add 10,000 troops by 2025 and double its defence budget by 2029.
What is the background?
First, regional challenge. The summit took place against the backdrop of four years of continued Russian aggression and Ukraine’s prolonged demands for military aid. This comes as Russian forces have been able to maintain pressure on the ground and negotiating table. NATO claims to share 99 per cent of all the military aid received by Ukraine till now. The war has made Europe realise the shortages in defence and major gaps in defence investments, yet a united stance to increase defence spending remains fragmented. This can be viewed in the cases of Poland, the Baltic states, and the UK, which vouch for NATO enlargement, while Hungary, Slovakia and Germany take cautious steps with fears of escalation.
Second, the threat from Trump. Continued criticism of European allies by Trump before the 2024 elections and a warning to withdraw support for Ukraine has affected the confidence of NATO members. Especially the recent warning to impose tariffs on those NATO countries that avoid increasing their defence spending makes it even more challenging for European countries in NATO to function as a transatlantic group.
Third, Article 5 and the EU’s concerns. Article 5 of the NATO Treaty is the core principle of collective defence. It states, an armed attack on one member will be considered as an attack on all. This becomes critical if triggered, mandating the allies to support the attacked member with armed force and help restore security. Since Trump’s presidency, Article 5 has become a stressful factor after his warning to withdraw support if the defence spending target is unmet by all allies. This has triggered concerns across the EU to reduce dependence on US’s defence support and heightened awareness to boost defence investments.
Fourth, reluctance over defence spending. As of the 2024 NATO defence expenditure report, the US remains one of the major contributors with EUR 800 billion out of EUR 1,173 billion in total. During 2006 and 2014, only Norway, Poland, Estonia and Albania maintained the GDP share of defence spending, while several declined their shares until the war in Ukraine. Germany and Finland have assured to boost their military expenditure; however, a large uncertainty remains if they will all meet the five per cent threshold.
What does this mean?
First, an ambitious shift to boost European defence responsibility. Considering the NATO expenditure reports and the pace of increase in defence spending by the NATO allies, the five per cent target by 2035 does seem ambitious. Trump’s push factor may help to increase the EU’s defence share in the alliance and help lay a path for the EU towards its “strategic autonomy.” However, bringing all the EU countries into NATO as a united military buildup while economic and political differences would be a big challenge.
Second, Trump is making Europe great again. The NATO summit and the higher defence target are the result of Trump’s warnings. The goal was to showcase unity while meeting Trump’s demands, which led to criticism of Rutte for “praising” Donald Trump. While the internal differences continue, Europe’s realisation to step up its defence and efforts to become independent of the US is the first step toward a strategic autonomy. How far it will be able to pursue this across the member states and how long the intensity will persist remains unknown.
About the author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS, Bengaluru.
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