The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy

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The World This Week

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy

The World This Week #341, Vol 8, No 03, 25 January 2026

Global Politics Team
25 January 2026

The Davos Summit 2026:
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
R Preetha

On 19–23 January 2026, the World Economic Forum’s 56th Annual Meeting was held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue.” Nearly 3,000 participants from over 130 countries attended, including more than 60 heads of state and government, around 830 CEOs, and senior representatives from international organisations, academia, and civil society.

The Forum framed the meeting around five core questions: how to cooperate in a more contested world; unlock new sources of growth; invest in people; deploy innovation responsibly at scale; and build prosperity within planetary boundaries. Against a backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation, economic uncertainty, and technological shifts, Davos 2026 reflected what some view as shifting -and others as rupturing- global order, while making an effort to preserve dialogue.

The following are the five major takeaways from the summit.

1. The domination of geopolitical shifts and security concerns
Geopolitics dominated Davos 2026, with the focus on transatlantic strains over Greenland, tariff threats, Middle East stability, and broader security concerns. President Trump’s assertion of US claims over Greenland crossed a fundamental red line with Europe. Although Trump later stepped back in his address, European officials suggested that trust in Washington was significantly shaken. Ukraine initially received limited attention, but re-gained focus after Trump announced a Greenland framework deal and as President Zelenskiy arrived in Davos, followed by the trilateral talks (US-Ukraine-Russia) in Abu Dhabi. Overall, Trump's unpredictability once again stood as a key point of attention.

The summit also saw a larger debate over whether the global order is rupturing or changing. While PM Carney noted that the rules-based system had faded, global finance leaders from the European Central Bank, the WTO, and the IMF held the view that global order is changing rather than rupturing and stressed on countries to invest in resilience. These concerns were reflected in the findings of the Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026.

2. The reassertion of “Spirit of Davos” emphasising dialogue and cooperation
Despite geopolitical tensions, the Forum repeatedly highlighted dialogue as indispensable; it framed the gathering as reflecting the “spirit of Davos,” meaning openness and cooperation that have defined the Forum since its inception over 50 years ago. The WEF noted that Davos did not provide solutions but created space for engagement among highly polarized actors. Forum President Børge Brende called the meeting as one where dialogue was “not a luxury, but a necessity.” The scale of participation itself was framed as meaningful. For Middle powers, as can be observed in PM Carney’s speech, Davos created the space to assert relevance and reinforce the importance of dialogue.

3. New deals, tariffs, public debt and the call for “stability, predictability, and the rule of law”
At Davos 2026, economic discussions highlighted strong demand for predictability. According to news reports, President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe over Greenland raised questions among CEOs over the reliability of the US. "When you talk to CEOs today, what do they want? Stability, predictability, and the rule of law. I would say it's in short supply," said Canada’s finance minister. Such discussions added to arguments calling for countries to diversify away from an increasingly protectionist US.

At the same time, deal-making continued. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU and India were “on the cusp” of a historic free trade agreement. The UK also secured over USD 2 billion in private investment commitments. Public Debt and development aid came about as fault lines.

4. The rise of AI and Emerging technologies as important but double-edged growth spaces
AI discussions were a significant part of the Davos summit, both as a growth space and societal challenge, with Tech leaders such as Elon Musk and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang making appearances. Executives showed greater confidence than in late 2025, stating that while AI will disrupt jobs, it will also create new ones. The IMF Managing Director noted that AI could affect 40 per cent of global jobs and 60 per cent in advanced economies either through elimination or transformation. Whereas, union leaders expressed concerns over inequality and demanded regulatory measures.

5. Focus on Energy security, Comeback for big oil and concerns over planetary boundaries
Davos 2026 highlighted two realities: short-term energy security priorities and long-term environmental concerns. Big Oil companies felt a comeback at Davos following a year of President Trump’s policies, which paused wind energy projects and directed US firms to expand oil drilling at home and abroad. A shift welcomed by many oil executives. This was reinforced at Davos with the US Energy Secretary stating that global oil production must more than double to meet rising demand, criticising heavy spending on green energy by Europe and California. In contrast, planetary boundaries also remained a critical agenda point at Davos. A 2024 publication by the forum warned that seven of nine planetary boundaries (critical Earth systems such as climate stability and freshwater availability) have already been breached.

The World Economic Forum at Davos: Who said what
R Preetha
On Greenland
President Trump: He stated the US and NATO had “formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland” and that tariffs scheduled for February would not be imposed. He also ruled out the use of force, stating: “I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.” On the framework deal on Greenland, he stated: “It’s a deal that everybody’s very happy with." “It puts everybody in a really good position, especially as it pertains to security and to minerals.”

On the Transatlantic strain
Gita Gopinath, Professor of Economics, Harvard: We might be just at the beginning of a "once-in-century" breakdown of the global order. “The US-Europe alliance was a critical part of the global economic order - and the fact that it is being ruptured is very consequential.”

On the global order
Canada’s PM Mark Carney: “the rules based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: "I'm not exactly on the same page as Mark." She added that: "I'm not sure that we should be talking about rupture. We should be identifying…the weaknesses, the sore points, the dependencies, the autonomy." Director-General of WTO Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: "If I was running a country, I would be trying to strengthen myself and my region and build resilience.”

On the Middle Powers
Canada’s PM Mark Carney: “The middle powers must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.”

On Tariffs
China’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng: "Tariffs and trade wars have no winners."

On geopolitical shifts and security concerns
China’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng: “Making the pie bigger together is more important than fighting for the pie and solving problems together is more effective than blaming each other.”

The Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy:
Four major takeaways
Brighta Ann Sarah

On 23 January, the Pentagon released the 2026 National Defence Strategy, a first since 2022. The 34-page document aligns closely with the US National Security Strategy and the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine released in 2025. The NDS outlines a pragmatic, “America First” approach to national security, emphasizing “peace through strength” by prioritizing the defence of the US homeland and Western Hemisphere. The document is also severely critical of Washington's European allies and the past administrations for the former's dependence on US defence guarantees.

The following are the key takeaways from the report.

1. Reinforcing a ‘realist,’ America-first strategy and selective interventionism
The NDS reiterates the administration’s emphasis on national interest and is highly critical of the pursuits of previous administrations that engaged with problems across the world through “interventionism, endless wars, regime change, and nation building.” The report rebukes Washington's former priorities of the rule-based international order as “cloud-castle abstractions,” indicating a sharp turn in rejecting the multilateral order. The NDS echoes the National Security Strategy in prioritising the immediate neighbourhood and US interests in the hemisphere, pitching access to critical territories like Greenland, the Gulf of America, and the Panama Canal as vital to its national interest and security priorities.

It further centres the Western Hemisphere as the primary geographic focus of American power projection, invoking the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. The document also clarifies that non-interventionism will not be isolationism, but rather selective engagement in enterprises most beneficial to Washington, through “flexible, practical realism.”

2. Allied burden-sharing with Europe and Israel as the model ally
The NDS adopts a stern tone toward allies, particularly Europe and NATO, due to their reliance on US security guarantees and underinvestment that have "weakened our alliances and left us more vulnerable." It also criticises past US policies for enabling allies to act as "dependents rather than partners," and commits to ending one-way security guarantees. The NDS identifies Russia as a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern member, but also highlights that “Moscow is in no position to make a bid for European hegemony.” Highlighting their economic and military edge, it urges Europe to take primary responsibility in countering Russia, including in defence of Ukraine while Washington’s support will remain critical, but limited. South Korea is also expected to bear defence responsibility in proportion to the threat it faces from North Korea.

Simultaneously, Israel is positioned as a “model ally,” that is willing and able to defend itself with critical but limited support from the US, particularly against Iran. The NDS criticises the previous administrations for limiting their support for Tel Aviv and highlights the need to further empower Israel’s defence capabilities as bulwark against Tehran and to advance eUS interest in the Middle East.

3. Deterring rather than confronting China and Washington’s economic interest in the Indo-Pacific
Aligning with the NSS, the NDS also diminishes the idea of China as an existential threat, and also acknowledges Beijing as an ascending power. It advances the possibility of countering China through “strength” not "confrontation," where the Indo-Pacific emerges as the theatre of contention. It places growing emphasis on the Indo-Pacific as the “world’s economic centre of gravity,” highlighting China’s dominance in the region’s trade flows, resource access, and dynamic markets as carrying major implications for American security, freedom, and prosperity. The strategic objective is to maintain a stable “balance of power” in the region, primarily through sustained military denial capabilities along the First Island Chain and close collaboration with regional allies. It also prioritises diplomatic engagement with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) across a wider range of formats aimed at promoting strategic stability, facilitating deconfliction, and enabling broader de-escalation mechanisms.

It suggests that the US has little interest in direct military confrontations with China provided Washington’s core economic interests, open trade routes, and fair commercial access remain unthreatened.

4. Revival of the Defence Industrial Base
The 2026 National Defence Strategy places heavy emphasis on supercharging the US defence industrial base (DIB) as a means of deterrence through strength. It frames it as a foundational element to rebuild and sustain the world's most lethal military while integrating into President Trump's broader “once-in-a-century revival of American industry.” The strategy calls for re-shoring strategic production, incentivizing innovation, slashing regulatory barriers, and dramatically scaling manufacturing capacity, aiming to “produce not only for ourselves but also for our allies and partners at scale, rapidly, and at the highest levels of quality.” It also calls for the reinvigoration of military culture, and restoring the “warrior ethos,” that is claimed to have been lost due to the decentring of the military and efforts at regime change and nation-building across the world.

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Aksath Kaimal, Aishwarya D Pai, Aparna A Nair, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, Nirmiti Mhatre, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Sunidhi Sampige, Tanvi Harendra, Tonica Sharon C, Yesasvi Koganti

CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Japan: Takaichi calls a snap poll to test support for tax cuts and higher defence spending
On 19 January, Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, announced a snap lower house election on 08 February, dissolving parliament ahead of schedule. This is Takaichi’s first electoral test since becoming Japan’s first female PM. Takaichi said at a press conference on Monday that she was staking her political future on the election. She also mentioned that the public should decide whether to entrust her with governing the country. Major economic promises made by her include a two-year halt to the 8 per cent consumption tax on food, and new spending plans that would lead to job creation and boost household spending.

China: US control of Venezuelan oil revenues poses challenges for debt restructuring, reports Reuters
On 23 January, Reuters reported that US control over Venezuela’s oil export revenues, now redirected to a Qatar-based account under Washington’s oversight, has disrupted oil shipments used to repay Chinese loans. Roughly 10 per cent of Venezuela’s estimated USD 150 billion foreign debt is owed to China and was being repaid through oil cargoes, which are now blocked. Beijing condemned the decision, saying its legitimate interests must be protected, while US officials reportedly stated that China could continue buying Venezuelan oil at fair market prices, but not as repayment for debt.

China: Top Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli face serious violations inquiry
On 24 January, Reuters reported that China's Ministry of National Defense announced an investigation into two top military officials namely, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, on suspicions of serious violations of discipline and the law. This marks a sharp escalation in Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign within the PLA, launched in 2012 and intensified in 2023 amid graft concerns in units such as the Rocket Force. Zhang had maintained close ties to President Xi Jinping and had played a central role in the PLA’s modernisation and development, reports Reuters.

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Vietnam: To Lam re-elected as the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam; Xi lauds “shared future”
On 23 January, To Lam was re-elected for five years by all 180 members of the Communist Party's central committee at the end of a once every five-year Party congress aimed at setting priorities of leadership and policy. Considered a reformist, Lam vowed deeper economic and institutional reforms, including within the party, and promised annual economic growth above ten per cent through the decade, a target analysts have described as ambitious. The World Bank forecasts an average growth rate of 6.5 per cent in the near term. Reuters reported that China's President Xi Jinping congratulated To Lam, and said that the two communist neighbours formed a “community with a shared future of strategic importance.” In his message, President Xi praised the “remarkable results” of socialist construction and reform in Vietnam and stressed its growing international status and influence. He expressed his readiness to strengthen strategic communication, continue traditional friendship, and promote the common cause of socialism while contributing to regional and global stability.

Nepal: US deports 553 Nepalis in 2025
On 22 January, as reported by The Kathmandu Post, The Trump administration has been deporting illegal immigrants, including Nepalis, with 553 deportees already sent back in 2025, and 80 others last week on a chartered plane. Most of the deportees did not have legal documentation or broke terms of their visa. The Human Trafficking Investigation Bureau of the Nepal Police is currently processing the deportees, while those without travel documents are being supported by the Nepali Embassy there. The Trump administration's tough stance on immigration has been directed at ensuring that those receiving benefits from the US treasury significantly reduce, as 34 per cent of Nepalis living in the US fall into this group. Additionally, the Trump administration has halted reviewing immigrant visas of individuals from 75 countries, including Nepali nationals, who apply for visas while paying a bond. This is because there has been a rise in the deportations of Nepalis since the early part of 2025, despite the halt of illegal crossings from Nepal. About 5,000 Nepalis are living in the US on temporary protected status, pending court action.

Bhutan: Nganglam Dry Port to begin operations in July
On 21 January, Kuensel reported that the Nganglam Dry Port at Pelzomthang is nearing completion and is scheduled to begin operations in July 2026, with about 90 per cent of construction already finished under the Nu 530 million, India-funded project launched in 2022. Strategically located near the Indo-Bhutan border, the 7.34-acre facility will include import and export warehouses, cold storage, a weighbridge, customs clearing offices and transshipment yards, and is expected to significantly enhance cross-border trade with India and Bangladesh. Officials and local stakeholders said the dry port would streamline cargo handling, reduce transport costs, support agricultural storage, and generate economic benefits across eastern Bhutan, particularly for exporters, importers and farmers in six dzongkhags.

Bangladesh: Yunus urges ‘Yes’ vote in referendum to open door to new Bangladesh
On 19 January, Dhaka Tribune reported that Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus called on voters to stamp “Yes” in the referendum scheduled for 12 February, saying it would open the path to building a “new Bangladesh.” In a video message to the nation, Yunus described the July mass uprising as an “extraordinary achievement” that created an opportunity for democracy, justice, and human rights, and said the July Charter, formulated with consensus among political parties, required public consent for implementation. He said a “Yes” vote would introduce wide-ranging reforms, including limits on prime ministerial tenure, an independent judiciary, stronger opposition roles in parliament, enhanced protection of fundamental rights, increased women’s representation, recognition of ethnic languages, and the establishment of an upper chamber to balance power.

Bangladesh: US Ambassador Brent Christensen meets BNP chief Tarique Rahman
On 19 January, Dhaka Tribune reported that newly appointed US Ambassador to Bangladesh Brent T. Christensen paid a courtesy call on BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman at the party chief’s Gulshan office in Dhaka. The meeting, which began at 4:00 pm, was attended by BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Standing Committee member Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, Joint Secretary General Humayun Kabir, Advisory Council member Mahdi Amin, press secretary Saleh Shibly, and several officials from the US Embassy in Dhaka. Earlier the same day, Canadian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Ajit Singh also met Tarique Rahman in Dhaka.

Maldives: Tourist arrivals rise 10 per cent in first 18 days of 2026
On 19 January, Sun Online reported that Maldivian tourism statistics showed that the country recorded 129,201 tourist arrivals in the first 18 days of 2026, marking a 10 per cent increase compared to 117,532 arrivals during the same period last year. Russia emerged as the largest source market with 19,945 visitors, followed by Italy (14,722) and the United Kingdom (11,065), while China ranked fourth with 8,725 arrivals after leading in 2025. The data indicated that nearly 70 per cent of tourists, around 88,900 visitors, stayed at resorts. The Maldives received 2.25 million tourists in 2025, narrowly missing the government’s target of 2.3 million, and authorities have projected 2.4 million arrivals for 2026.

Maldives: Government condemns Israeli demolition of UNRWA compound in East Jerusalem
On 21 January, Sun Online reported that the Maldives government strongly condemned Israeli forces for demolishing buildings inside the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) headquarters in Sheikh Jarrah, occupied East Jerusalem. In a statement, the Maldivian Foreign Ministry said the demolition constituted a clear violation of international law, undermined the work of the United Nations and humanitarian agencies, and worsened the already severe humanitarian situation facing Palestinians. The ministry noted that the action contravened rulings of the International Court of Justice and reiterated Maldives’ firm support for UNRWA and its humanitarian mandate. The government also urged the international community to take meaningful steps to hold Israel accountable for persistent violations of international law, recalling recent Israeli legislative measures aimed at restricting or banning UNRWA operations in East Jerusalem despite UN assurances of the agency’s neutrality.

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
The War in Gaza: European states reconsider participation in the US-led Gaza Civil Military Coordination Center; Trump’s Board of Peace signals expansion beyond Gaza ceasefire
On 20 January, Reuters reported that several European states were reconsidering their participation in the US-led Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) for Gaza, citing a lack of progress and developments in the facilitation of humanitarian aid, post-war governance in Gaza, and monitoring of the Israel-Hamas equation as reasons. Similarly, diplomats cite growing frustration with the stagnant state, due to the reported absence of various European officials recently. Trump plans to enter a second phase of coordination with the proposed “Board of Peace.”

On 21 January, according to media reports, the Foreign Minister Fidan will represent Turkey’s president at the leaders-level “Board of Peace”. President Erdogan confirmed in parliament that the Foreign Minister will represent him in the initiative. This initiative was initially aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza, but President Trump has said that it would also resolve conflicts around the world. President Trump will preside over a ceremony marking the establishment of the Board of Peace on Thursday at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos. The Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that Foreign Minister Fidan will attend the signing ceremony on Thursday. The US had earlier announced that Foreign Minister Fidan was a member of the “Gaza Executive Board”, along with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

On 22 January, US President Donald Trump announced the establishment of the Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The creation of the board was endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution linked to Trump’s Gaza peace plan, though the UN said its engagement would be limited to that context. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the board’s immediate focus would be on ensuring the Gaza ceasefire is implemented. “Once this board is completely formed, we can do pretty much whatever we want to do. And we'll do it in conjunction with the United Nations," Trump said. He denied that the board was meant to replace the UN, saying it would work in coordination with the UN and that the organisation's potential had not been fully utilised. Trump will chair the board; he has invited several world leaders to join the Board and stated that permanent members would be required to contribute USD one billion each. Thirty-five countries, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Argentina, Indonesia, and Hungary, have accepted the invitation. France declined the invitation, while the UK said it was not participating at present.

On 23 January, President Trump revoked the invitation to Canada to join the Board of Peace in response to Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "Please let this Letter serve to represent that the Board of Peace is withdrawing its invitation to you regarding Canada’s joining, what will be, the most prestigious Board of Leaders ever assembled, at any time," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. In his speech, Carney had criticised powerful countries for wielding “economic integration as coercion.” He had urged countries to accept the end of a rules-based global order, warning that “we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” He asserted that "middle powers" must act together to prevent being victims of “American hegemony,” stating that “[middle powers] are not at the table, we are the menu.” Trump had sharply retorted Carney’s observations, claiming that Canada "lives because of the United States," and that Carney should be grateful for Washington's generosity.

Syria: Turkey’s President Erdogan urges the SDF to disband and integrate into the state forces to avoid “bloodshed;” Government forces consolidate control after the SDF withdrawal from northern and eastern territory
On 19 January, reports stated that the Syrian government forces tightened their grip on northern and eastern territory abandoned by the Syrian Democratic Forces, consolidating President Sharaa’s rule. The SDF withdrew from two Arab-majority provinces, including oil fields, marking the biggest shift in Damascus’s control map since President Assad’s government was toppled in 2024. This agreement between President Sharaa and the SDF was welcomed by Turkey, hoping that it would bring stability and security. Reuters journalists saw the deployment of Syrian troops in Raqqa and in the al-Omar oil field and the Conoco gas field in Deir al-Zor, which were previously held by US-backed SDF forces. The US has established close ties with President Sharaa under President Trump and is involved in mediation between both parties. SDF Commander Abdi confirmed the withdrawal of the SDF forces in accordance with the 14-point deal, and he is set to meet President Sharaa in Damascus. He also said that the SDF is committed to protecting the achievements of the Kurdish region in the northeast and reiterated that this war was imposed on them. The SDF retains the northeastern province of Hasaka, which includes the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli, the main camps and prisons holding Islamic State fighters. The deal specifies that those sites, along with all border crossings and oil and gas fields, are to be returned to government control with no mention of the specific timing of the handover of prisons and camps. Under the deal, SDF fighters are to be integrated into central defence and interior ministries as individuals rather than as whole units expelling all non-Syrian figures affiliated to Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

On 21 January, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan stated that Kurdish forces in northern Syria must “lay down weapons and disband” now to avoid further bloodshed, and that any provocation would be a "suicide attempt." The statement follows the ceasefire agreement between Syria's government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast. The SDF had also agreed to integrate into the state forces backed by Turkey. Erdogan also stated that Ankara welcomed the ceasefire agreement and hoped that "full integration" would usher in a new era in Syria. Washington, which had been the SDF’s major ally, also urged the group to integrate into the central apparatus.

On 22 January, Syria's government accused the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of drone strikes that killed 11 soldiers. This is the first alleged violation since the four-day ceasefire between the government forces and the SDF was announced. The attack is reported to have occurred while the troops were securing a captured military base containing explosives. The SDF denied the accusations.

Protests in Iran: Judiciary considers execution under 'Mohareb' charge; The government considers restoring internet access in the wake of state television's intrusion
On 18 January, an Iranian official stated that approximately 5,000 people died, including 500 security personnel, accusing “terrorists and armed rioters” of being allegedly backed by foreign states such as the US, Israel, and Kurdish separatist groups. The Iranian judiciary announced the execution of a few protesters under the charge of Mohareb (waging war against God), which carries the death penalty under the Iranian Law, despite US President Donald Trump’s threats of intervention if executions proceed. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned against impunity while rejecting claims that Iran would be pushed into war. According to Reuters, various rights groups reported that thousands were killed, with over 24,000 being arrested, and intense violence was witnessed in the Kurdish areas. Further, severe blackouts imposed on the Internet obstructed information gathering.

On 19 January, Reuters reported that Iran is considering restoring internet access in the coming days, according to a senior parliament member. While various officials and social media posts indicated the return to calm, the state television was briefly hacked on Sunday, airing speeches of US President Donald Trump, and the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, Reza Pahlavi, portraying otherwise. As arrests continue in regions including Tehran, Kerman, and Semnan, the state media alleges involvement of agents belonging to Israeli “terrorist groups” among the detainees. The extent of the violence surpasses that of the previous crackdowns in 2009 and 2022, which evoked threats of intervention from the US and prompted Gulf states to advocate for de-escalation. Internet access remains restricted as Iran experiments with a strictly regulated system, with the full restoration of services contingent on security evaluations.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: Putin held talks with US envoys as Trump signals deal is reasonably close; The trilateral peace talks end in Abu Dhabi without breakthrough as Russia strikes Kyiv
On 22 January, Reuters reported that President Vladimir Putin is set to discuss a possible peace plan for Ukraine with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow, following President Donald Trump's statement that a deal to end the war was "reasonably close." Addressing the Russian Security Council, Putin also reportedly confirmed that discussions with the US envoys would focus on Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace,” and the possible use of frozen Russian assets. While the US engages separately with Russia, Kyiv, and European leaders on draft frameworks to end the conflict, a deal is yet to be reached, despite Trump’s repeated promises. The negotiations focused on ending the deadliest European conflict since World War II, Ukraine’s political and territorial future, assessing the durability of US-led peace, and the risk of Europe being sidelined. While Trump has expressed confidence that a deal is close, he has blamed both Putin and Zelenskiy for any failure and told Reuters last week that Zelenskiy is a key obstacle to reaching an agreement.

On 23 January, media reported that Russia's President Vladimir Putin held talks with three US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow ahead of planned trilateral peace talks involving the United States, Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi. The Kremlin said the discussions were “substantive, constructive and very frank,” and agreed that security talks will be held in the UAE. It also emphasised that a lasting peace settlement is unlikely without resolving territorial issues first, notably Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede control of parts of eastern Donetsk. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov reiterated that Russia views territorial concessions as a core requirement for a long-term settlement. Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky also said the territorial issue, especially the fate of Donbas, would be discussed at the US-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. President Zelensky noted that the question of Donbas is “key” to negotiations, and stressed Kyiv’s continued refusal to surrender territory Kyiv still holds. The Abu Dhabi talks represent the first trilateral meeting involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

On 24 January, Ukraine, Russia and the United States were holding peace talks in Abu Dhabi after previous negotiations in Moscow and Berlin. The meeting is part of an ongoing effort to find a way to end the ongoing war. The peace talks focused on reaching a ceasefire, agreeing on security guarantees, and discussing territorial issues such as control of parts of eastern Ukraine. President Zelensky noted that the war cannot be resolved without addressing territorial issues. Russia’s demand to withdraw Kyiv's forces from the Donbas remains a major sticking point, which Kyiv firmly rejects. There has been no sign of compromise on the territorial dispute. At the same time as the talks continued, Russian forces carried out air strikes on Kyiv and other areas. Ukraine’s air defence systems were activated to stop incoming missiles and drones. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Russia launched attacks on Ukraine during the talks, calling the timing “cynical.” He said this showed that Russia was ignoring diplomatic efforts.

Greenland: Trump says he no longer feels obliged to “think purely of Peace” and "No going back;" The EU is considering retaliatory measures and European Commission President refers building a “new independent Europe”
On 18 January, President Donald Trump’s threat to impose escalating tariffs on several European countries over the Greenland dispute triggered strong reactions and calls for coordinated European counter-measures. President Trump has vowed to levy increasing tariffs on goods from countries including Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, the United Kingdom, and Norway until the United States is allowed to pursue its goal of acquiring Greenland.

In response, European Union leaders and lawmakers are considering activating the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a powerful and rarely used economic tool designed to counter foreign trade coercion. The EU’s ambassadors were summoned to an emergency meeting in Brussels to discuss a unified response, which could include restrictions on US access to EU public tenders or services markets. Reactions across Europe have varied. French and German officials have supported potential counter-measures, while some diplomats urge caution to avoid escalating tensions. British officials have stressed the importance of cooperation rather than confrontation, and Italy described the tariff threat as a mistake.

On 19 January, Reuters reported that EU leaders are set to review response options at an emergency summit in Brussels on 22 January in the backdrop of escalating tensions with the US over Greenland. An option under consideration is the reactivation of tariffs on US imports worth 93 billion euros (USD 108 billion). Another possibility is the use of the EU’s “Anti-Coercion Instrument” (ACI), a tool that has not yet been used, which could restrict US access to public procurement, investment opportunities, banking activity, or trade in services, a space where the US holds a surplus with the bloc. While the EU has stated that it continues to engage Washington “at all levels,” it has also made clear that recourse to the ACI remains an option. Efforts to prioritise dialogue are expected to feature prominently at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where President Trump is scheduled to deliver a keynote address on 21 January, marking his first appearance at the forum in six years.

Meanwhile, President Trump linked his renewed push to take control of Greenland to his failure to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, saying he no longer felt the need to think “purely of Peace.” This development follows Trump's increased pressure on Denmark, wherein he threatened additional 10 per cent import tariffs on goods from Denmark and several European countries, including Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, effective 01 February. News reports note that the recent tensions have alarmed European leaders, who fear a strain on NATO cohesion, already challenged by the war in Ukraine and US demands for higher defence spending. It has also unsettled EU–US trade relations, which only stabilised last year after negotiations to ease earlier tariffs. In a written message to Norway’s PM, Trump stated: “Considering your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace.”

On 20 January, the US President Donald Trump reiterated that there is “no going back” on his goal to control Greenland. Trump framed Greenland as “imperative for national and world security" after speaking to Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General. Trump also shared an AI-generated image portraying Greenland as a part of the United States. Trump’s stance has threatened NATO unity, as both Denmark and the United States are alliance members. Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, warned that “the worst may still lie ahead.” According to Reuters, in response, the European Union is considering retaliatory trade measures against the United States, which include tariffs on 93 billion euros worth of US imports, which will automatically fall into effect on 6 February after a suspension. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at Davos, insisted on building a “new independent Europe.” Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, questioned Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland and called Greenland’s status a result of colonial conquest rather than a natural part of Denmark. Trump’s tariff threats revived talk of the "Sell America’ trade,” global markets fell, and gold prices reached record highs.

The Davos Summit: President Trump takes a softer approach to Greenland in his address; NATO chief says allies must strengthen Arctic security under the deal with US; PM Carney calls for “middle powers” to act together
On 21 January, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, US President Donald Trump faced a restrained reception after reiterating his intention to acquire Greenland. Trump argued that control over Greenland is critical for US national security and would enhance NATO’s strategic posture, citing its location and military relevance in the Arctic. However, his remarks were met with scepticism from European leaders, reflecting broader concerns within the alliance over sovereignty, territorial integrity, and adherence to international law. The Greenland issue surfaced on the sidelines of a summit focused on economic governance, climate challenges, and technological change. Several European officials avoided endorsing Trump’s position, instead emphasising collective decision-making within NATO.

On 22 January, speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, President Trump made a shift in his approach to Greenland, stepping back from earlier tariff threats against European countries. He said the US and NATO had “formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland” and stated that tariffs scheduled for February would not be imposed. President Trump also ruled out the use of force, stating: “I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.” The change in tone helped reduce market concerns and led to a rally in US stocks, reported Reuters. Following the meeting with NATO Secretary General, Trump said: “It’s a deal that everybody’s very happy with." According to media reports, European diplomats said Trump’s softer tone did not immediately resolve the concerns but helped defuse tensions and create space for private negotiations to continue. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General said allies would need to strengthen their presence in the Arctic under the upcoming framework with the US.

Europe on Arctic Security: European Commission prepares package to support Arctic security amid Greenland tensions with the US
On 20 January, European Commission President von der Leyen said that the European Union’s executive arm was working on a security package to support Arctic security and warned that the tariffs proposed by US President Trump on Greenland are a mistake, especially given the long-standing alliance between the two countries. She reiterated that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and Greenland are non-negotiable and that the EU would work with the US and other partners on wider Arctic security, as it can only be achieved together. She warned that the EU-US trade deal must be respected, cautioning that any escalation would only aid adversaries and said that the EU’s response would be united and proportional after President Trump intensified his push to wrest sovereignty over Greenland. The EU is also planning a “massive European investment surge in Greenland” to support the local economy, infrastructure, the European icebreaker capability and other equipment vital to Arctic security.

The UK and the Chagos Island Deal on Sovereignty: London defends it, as Trump calls it an act of “Great Stupidity”
On 20 January, the UK government defended its agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius after US President Donald Trump criticised the deal, calling it “an act of GREAT STUPIDITY.” Although the Trump administration had earlier backed the UK-Mauritius deal, calling it a “monumental achievement," President Trump has now criticised it. He linked the handover of sovereignty over Diego Garcia to broader concerns about Western allies handing over strategically important territories. His remarks come amid his renewed pressure over Greenland.

Downing Street said the deal was necessary because court rulings had weakened the UK’s legal position, placing the base “under threat.” The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson said the US continues to support the agreement and noted that all Five Eyes allies back it. Trump, however, wrote on Truth Social that the UK was giving away Diego Garcia “for no reason whatsoever.” His comments contrast with earlier US support, when Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the deal as a “monumental achievement.”

The UK: Government approves establishment of a new Chinese super-embassy in London
On 20 January, the BBC reported that the UK government approved the establishment of a new Chinese super-embassy on a 20,000-square-metre site at Royal Mint Court. While critics warned of a potential threat to national security, the government stated that the intelligence agencies have taken extensive risk-mitigation measures, with their constant involvement. As opposition parties criticise this move, with Conservatives calling it an “act of cowardice” and Liberal Democrats labelling it, several campaign groups reportedly warned the embassy could be used for espionage and surveillance, posing risks to dissidents and UK security. Residents have also expressed concern about displacement, loss of homes, and lack of compensation.

The EU-Mercosur free trade agreement: European Parliament votes to challenge the deal in the EU Court of Justice over environmental and food safety concerns
On 21 January, lawmakers in the European Parliament voted to challenge the newly signed free trade agreement with Mercosur in the EU’s top court, a move that could delay or possibly derail the deal. The agreement with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay was signed on 17 January but still requires full ratification. A group of 144 lawmakers requested an opinion from the EU Court of Justice on whether the agreement can be provisionally applied before all member states ratify it, and whether its provisions limit the EU’s ability to set environmental and public health standards. The motion passed narrowly, with 334 votes in favour and 324 against.

Opposition is led by France, the EU’s largest agricultural producer, where farmers fear increased imports of cheaper beef, poultry and sugar could affect domestic producers. Environmental groups also argue the deal lacks enforceable measures and could add to deforestation in Mercosur countries. Supporters, including Germany and Spain, argue the agreement is important to offset losses from US tariffs, reduce dependence on China, and secure access to critical minerals. As per the agreement, Mercosur will remove tariffs on 91 per cent of EU exports over a 15-year period, while the EU will gradually remove duties on 92 per cent of Mercosur exports over up to 10 years. It will also introduce quotas for sensitive farm products, and recognise about 350 EU geographic indications. The European Commission says that EU food and environmental standards will not be relaxed, however, critics remain sceptical over the deal.

The UK and China: Starmer's visit to China is expected to revive the 'Golden Era’ business dialogue
On 21 January, Reuters reported that Britain and China aim to revive the “Golden Era” business dialogue during Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s expected visit to Beijing next week, with senior executives from major UK and Chinese companies expected to be invited. While negotiations had been ongoing for months, the UK’s approval of China’s plan to build its largest embassy in London cleared the way for the visit. Details, including the forum’s official English-language name, remain unresolved due to political sensitivities in the UK. Reuters reported that, as the visit has not been formally announced, it could be derailed by US President Donald Trump's threats to acquire Greenland. Starmer is seeking to reset UK-China relations after years of deterioration under Conservative governments, criticizing predecessors for falling behind European peers in engagement.

The UK and the US: PM Starmer condemns President Trump's comments on European troops in Afghanistan
On 24 January, the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned President Trump's comments about European troops staying off the front lines in Afghanistan "insulting" and "appalling." Trump had stated in an interview that the US had "never needed" the transatlantic alliance and accused allies of staying "a little off the front lines" in Afghanistan. In response to the question of demanding an apology from Trump, Starmer stated that had it been him, he would certainly apologise. Netherland's Foreign Minister David van Weel had also condemned Trump's remarks on Afghanistan, calling them untrue and disrespectful.

AMERICAS THIS WEEK
The Pentagon National Security Strategy: Rebukes allies’ dependence on US security guarantees, urges greater defence responsibility; Terms Russia as a “persistent but manageable threat”
On 23 January, the Pentagon released a critical National Defense Strategy severely criticising Washington’s allies for relying on the previous US administration to subsidise their defence. The 34-page document is the first since 2022, and calls for "a sharp shift - in approach, focus, and tone,” highlighting that allies should take more responsibility in countering threats. The document highlights China as an Indo-Pacific force that only demands deterrence, stating that the goal "is not to dominate China; nor is it to strangle or humiliate them.” It identifies Russia as a “persistent but manageable threat,” and urges South Korea to take primary responsibility in countering North Korea “with critical but more limited US support.” The report also asserts that Washington will "actively and fearlessly defend America's interests throughout the Western Hemisphere," emphasising on the Panama Canal and Greenland.

The US and the WHO: Washington set to officially withdraw from the World Health Organisation
On 22 January, Reuters reported that the US is set to officially exit the World Health Organisation. A US State Department spokesperson said that the WHO’s failure to contain, manage, and share information had cost the US trillions of dollars, adding that “the American people have paid more than enough to this organisation,” prompting the president to pause all future funding and support to the WHO. President Trump had previously announced that the US would withdraw from the WHO on the first day of his presidency in 2025. The WHO Director-General, Ghebreyesus, stated that he hopes Washington will reconsider and rejoin the WHO and reiterated that withdrawal from the WHO is a loss for both the US and the rest of the world. The US has traditionally been the UN health agency’s biggest financial backer, and its departure had sparked a budgetary crisis, leading the WHO to cut its management team in half and shed around a quarter of its staff by the middle of 2026. The agency has said it has been working with the US and sharing information over the last year, but is unsure how the collaboration would work in the future.

India-US tariff tensions: Treasury Secretary Bessent indicates possible US tariff relief for India as Russian oil imports reduce
On 24 January, Reuters reported that following the reduction in Russian oil imports by India, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the potential removal of an additional 25 per cent tariffs on India. Speaking to Politico at the World Economic Forum, Bessent stated Indian refiners had sharply reduced purchases of Russian oil, calling the outcome “a success.” He noted that the 25 per cent tariffs linked to Russian oil imports remain in place but suggested there could be a pathway to lifting them. I would imagine there is a path to take them off." On 23 January, Reuters said that in December, India imported the least Russian oil in two years, raising OPEC’s share of its crude imports to an 11-month high. Bessent’s comments come amid growing pressure from President Trump, who has warned that tariffs could be raised further if India does not further scale back its purchases of Russian oil.

About the authors
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai.
Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.
Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair and Yesasvi Koganti are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.
Tonica Sharon C and Aishwarya D Pai are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Mount Carmel College, Bengaluru.
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha is an undergraduate student double majoring in BSc Clinical Psychology and BA Political Science at the School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru.
Sunidhi Sampige is a postgraduate student in MA Diplomacy, Law and Business at OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.
Nirmiti Mhatre is an undergraduate student majoring in BA Political Science at the School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru.
Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS.

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