CWA # 1955

The World This Week

End of the New START I India–US interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmer’s China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

342-343, 08 February 2026

Global Politics Team 8 February 2026

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End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START):
Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

Lekshmi MK

What happened?
On 04 February, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) between the United States and Russia expired after 15 years. Trump stated that "If it expires, it expires,” and that “We'll just do a better agreement." Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, responded that “This is a new moment, a new reality – we are ready for it.”

On 05 February, Reuters reported that Russia expressed regret over the expiry of the New START treaty. Russian officials said the end of the treaty removed long-standing constraints, but Moscow would continue to act responsibly in matters related to strategic stability.

On 06 February, Reuters reported that at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, the US accused China of conducting a secret nuclear test in 2020 and called for negotiation of a broader arms control agreement that would include Beijing along with Russia. At the Geneva forum, the UK called for a new phase of nuclear arms control involving China, Russia, and the US, expressing concerns over Beijing’s rapid nuclear expansion. France argued that an agreement among the largest nuclear powers was essential, given the unprecedented decline in nuclear norms.

What is the background?
First, the suspension of the START amidst the deterioration of US-Russia relations after the Ukraine war. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) process began during the Cold War as a series of agreements between the United States and the Soviet Union, later Russia, to reduce and limit nuclear weapons. These treaties established numerical caps, verification mechanisms, and regular inspections to ensure transparency and strategic stability. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, became the latest and most comprehensive framework in this arms control tradition. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 altered US-Russia relations. Sanctions, military support to Kyiv, and diplomatic hostility eroded the minimal trust required for arms control engagement. Russia suspended participation in New START’s inspection and data-sharing mechanisms, arguing that normal cooperation was impossible amid Western pressure. Although the treaty remained legally valid, its core verification provisions became ineffective. The breakdown of communication and confidence removed the political space needed for dialogue on renewal.

Second, China and the START. Trump has been arguing that extending the existing bilateral treaty was inadequate for current nuclear realities. For him, any credible arms control agreement must include China, citing its expanding nuclear capabilities. However, Beijing has firmly rejected this proposal. For China, joining trilateral arms control talks with the United States and Russia is “neither reasonable nor realistic” given the large disparity in nuclear forces and strategic environments. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said China’s arsenal is of a “totally different scale” and emphasised that Beijing pursues a self-defence strategy and will not participate in US-Russia disarmament negotiations at this stage.

Third, the gradual decline of the arms control treaties. Over the past two decades, the erosion of key agreements such as the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty  and Open Skies Treaty weakened the overall framework of US-Russia strategic engagement. These treaties once sustained regular dialogue, transparency, and mutual confidence on nuclear stability. As they collapsed, the institutional culture of arms control cooperation declined. New START was left as a standalone agreement without the support of a wider network of confidence-building measures.

What does it mean?
First, renewed fears of a nuclear arms race without legal limits. With New START expiring, there are no legally binding caps on US and Russian strategic nuclear weapons for the first time in decades. The removal of numerical limits and verification mechanisms is likely to increase mistrust, thereby raising concerns about a renewed nuclear arms race and deployment.

Second, the efforts to bring China in. Trump’s insistence on including China signals a redefinition of the arms control framework. Arms control is no longer viewed as a bilateral responsibility between Washington and Moscow but as a broader strategic issue involving Beijing, reflecting the new US concerns over China’s expanding arsenal.

Third, rising international concern over China’s nuclear expansion. Calls by the US, UK, and France to include China in future arms control reflect growing global anxiety over Beijing’s nuclear trajectory. China’s expanding capabilities are increasingly seen as central to strategic stability, even as Beijing resists joining formal limits. This places China at the heart of future nuclear diplomacy. It also complicates the prospects for a quick replacement to New START. The broader concern is that without China’s participation, any new framework may struggle to achieve legitimacy or effectiveness.

The India–US interim trade framework:
Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment
R Preetha

What happened?
On 06 February, India and the US issued a joint statement announcing a framework for an Interim Agreement and their work towards a more comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).

On the same day, President Trump issued an executive order lifting the additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods after New Delhi committed to halting direct and indirect imports of Russian oil.  

What is the background?
First, a brief note on India–US trade relations. The bilateral trade relations have expanded over the past decade, despite recurring disputes over tariffs, market access, and regulatory standards. In 2024, India was the US’s 10th-largest goods trade partner, while the US was India’s largest. US goods exports to India stood at USD 41.5 billion and were concentrated in energy, manufacturing, and aerospace products. US imports from India were led by pharmaceuticals, manufactured goods, IT equipment, apparel, and textile furnishings. The US services exports to India were driven largely by travel, while imports were concentrated in business and IT services. Overall, bilateral goods and services trade totalled USD 212.3 billion in 2024, an increase of 8.3 per cent from 2023. Convergence, especially on supply chains and technology, increased, but the absence of a comprehensive trade agreement limited the scope of economic cooperation.

Second, Trump tariffs and the recent tensions. Following a 90-day pause on Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, most Indian exports faced cumulative duties of 50 per cent, comprising a 25 per cent punitive tariff on Russian oil imports and a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff. These levies were the highest applied to any US trading partner and were reportedly among the lowest points in US–India relations in nearly 25 years. Despite announcements by Trump and Modi in February 2025 to negotiate, negotiations stalled as tariff tensions increased, with Trump repeatedly remarking on mediating the India–Pakistan conflict. In this backdrop, India pivoted to improving its engagement with China and struck a landmark trade deal with the European Union.

Third, negotiations and the interim trade framework. The framework announced on 6 February 2026 forms a key step towards the broader BTA negotiations launched in 2025. These talks have addressed long-standing and sensitive issues, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals, digital trade, non-tariff barriers, and industrial tariffs. Under the framework, the US reduced tariffs on most Indian exports to 18 per cent, while eliminating the additional 25 per cent duty tied to India's Russian oil purchases. In exchange, India agreed to eliminate or substantially reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and to grant expanded market access for select US agricultural and food products, while protecting sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy. India is also committed to purchasing USD 500 billion worth of US goods over five years, across energy, aviation, precious metals, and advanced technology. Binding timelines were set for resolving non-tariff barriers, even as full BTA discussions continue in parallel. Though not a complete free trade agreement, this represents the most significant progress in India–US trade relations in over a decade.

What does it mean?
First, sectoral and bilateral trade implications. The tariff relief is expected to benefit Indian exporters in textiles, apparel, leather, footwear, chemicals, home décor, artisanal products, and selected machinery, improving competitiveness broadly in line with regional peers. Reduced duties on aircraft, aircraft parts, and quota access for auto components will help India’s integration into the US aerospace and automotive supply chains. For the US, India's tariff cuts on industrial goods, plus greater access for agricultural products, open new opportunities. Non-tariff barriers in agriculture, medical devices, and communications equipment are to be addressed within six months by accepting US or international standards. However, certain points remain in question, such as the outcomes for pharmaceuticals, which depend on US investigations. While the government highlights safeguards for vulnerable sectors, critics argue the framework was largely concluded on US terms, questioning the overall balance of concessions.

Second, implications for India–US relations. The interim framework reflects a stabilisation of bilateral ties after a period of acute tension over tariffs and disagreements on energy and market access. The rollback of the additional 25 per cent tariff has softened immediate friction; however, Washington retains an upper hand by monitoring India’s future energy sourcing. On the other hand, India withstanding broad agricultural opening and the protection of sensitive sectors highlight New Delhi’s emphasis on maintaining autonomy over sensitive areas. The framework showcases willingness on both sides and moves towards cooperation in areas of common interests such as supply chains, technology, and China.

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways
The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

Akshath K

On 27 January 2026, in New Delhi, India and the European Union (EU) announced the completion of a free trade agreement covering multiple sectors. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, hailed it as the “mother of all deals,” while Indian PM Narendra Modi called it the “biggest free trade deal in history.” It comes following nearly 20 years of negotiations between India and the EU. The formal signing and ratification of the deal by all 27 EU members is expected to happen later this year. While a broad deal has been agreed to, both parties said that specific details are still being worked on.

The following are four major takeaways from the free-trade agreement.

1. The long and tough road to the bilateral FTA, and the recent geopolitical nudge
Trade talks between the two began in 2007 but hit several hurdles along the way, particularly regarding the sale of cars and agricultural and dairy products. Talks restarted in 2022 but picked up pace in 2025 due to global economic uncertainties following the United States’ decision to impose higher tariffs on its trading partners. The trade deal reflects the EU and India’s desire to diversify their trade partners, especially in light of the US's aggressive trade tactics.

2. Major reductions in tariff rates
The trade agreement eliminates a wide range of tariffs on products originating from both sides. Tariffs on 96.6 per cent of EU products exported to India will be eliminated or reduced, and tariffs on 99.5 per cent of goods from India will be eliminated or reduced. EU tariffs on Indian marine products, such as shrimp, leather goods, handicrafts, plastics, gems and jewellery, and toys, will be reduced to nearly zero.

The EU traders stand to save EUR 4 billion annually with this deal. Tariffs on European cars, for example, will be reduced from the current 110 per cent to as little as 10 per cent. Additionally, India will almost entirely eliminate duties on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Wine will also see a rate cut from 150 per cent to 20-30 per cent, while tariffs on spirits will be reduced from 150 per cent to 40 per cent. However, the EU tariffs on beef, chicken, dairy, rice and sugar will remain the same.

3. Focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals
The bilateral deal promotes collaborative research in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, advanced semiconductors and clean tech. It aims to deepen cooperation in space technology through the EU-India Space Dialogue. They also agreed to cooperate to develop “resilient, secure and diversified critical minerals supply chains.” This comes amid increased restrictions on China's critical mineral exports.

Beyond tariff liberalisation, the agreement also reflects growing strategic trust between the EU and India, allowing economic cooperation to extend into sensitive areas such as advanced technology and defence, especially through the EU-India Security and Defence Partnership (SDP). While this is still a modest expansion of defence ties, it comes amid the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, which calls for greater defence autonomy for European countries. It is also in India’s interest to explore alternative avenues for defence cooperation, as the US shows growing reluctance to act as a predictable partner and ally.

4. The impact of US trade pressure in accelerating the bilateral negotiations between India and the EU
The return of Trump as US President in 2025 increased uncertainty in international trade. On 02 April, the Trump Administration announced tariff increases on over 80 countries, with the EU and India facing 20 per cent and 26 per cent increases, respectively. India was subsequently singled out for steeper measures, with tariffs increased to 50 per cent.

Aggressive trade tactics by the US and the economic uncertainty they created encouraged the EU and India to seek alternative markets. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the increased tariffs reduced India’s GDP by 1.6 per cent, giving the country new impetus to diversify its trade portfolio. The EU’s intention to seek new partners is evident in von der Leyen’s February 2025 visit to India, during which she committed to concluding the trade deal by the end of the year.

5. Reducing reliance on China and backing open trade
Increased US tariffs have encouraged China to divert its products to other markets. This has increased the number of Chinese goods entering European and Indian markets, fueling concerns of product dumping. This has pushed Europe to pursue its de-risking plan with China. Supply chain dependence and restrictions on the export of critical minerals have also driven the EU to advance its de-risking strategy.

Both the EU and India have also struck trade deals with other countries over the last few months. The EU signed a deal with Mercosur, a South American trade bloc, in early January, and with Indonesia in September last year. India, on the other hand, signed agreements with New Zealand, Oman and the UK, although the deal with the EU is considerably bigger than all three. The EU-India trade agreement allows both countries to diversify their supply chains while also getting behind multilateral trade deals amid a highly politicised economic environment.
 

UK and China:
PM Keir Starmer’s visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

Yesasvi Koganti

What happened?
On 28 January, UK PM Keir Starmer arrived in Beijing. His visit aimed to urge UK firms to seize economic opportunities while remaining alert to security risks.

On 29 January, Starmer called for a “more sophisticated” partnership, suggesting a reset of strained relations between the UK and China. The talks delivered visa-free travel, lower whisky tariffs and a USD 15 billion AstraZeneca investment.

On 30 January, China lifted travel restrictions on British lawmakers despite ongoing concerns about human rights. PM Starmer rejected US warnings, saying Britain must engage China while maintaining close ties with Washington.

What is the background?
Firstly, economic necessity and growth targets. China, through trade and investment, supports about 370,000 UK jobs, making it the UK's third-largest trading partner. China also provides the UK with vast opportunities for goods and services, especially in high-value sectors such as financial services, life sciences, and advanced manufacturing, as it is one of the world's largest consumer markets. Securing this bilateral relationship will also give the UK opportunities to participate in joint ventures such as those concerning clean energy, EVs, and digital technologies.

Second, the UK-China rapprochement after years of strained relations. During PM David Cameron’s 2015 “Golden Age,” UK policy emphasised attracting large-scale Chinese investments into critical infrastructure such as nuclear power. However, this approach later gave way to serious security concerns and growing US pressure, leading the UK to restrict and eventually ban Huawei from its 5G network. Relations further deteriorated during the subsequent “Ice Age,” marked by mutual distrust and sanctions, particularly after China sanctioned UK MPs in 2021 in response to the UK’s criticism of Beijing’s National Security Law in Hong Kong and human rights issues in Xinjiang. Against this backdrop, PM Starmer’s visit signals an attempt to reset ties with China.

Third, the “Trump Factor” and the return to strategic hedging. The return of Trump’s protectionist trade policies has disrupted the UK’s earlier strategy of closely aligning with Washington. In 2025, President Trump announced the “Liberation Day” trade policy, imposing a 10 per cent baseline tariff on imports from several countries, including the UK, under a “reciprocal” trade formula. This move created an uncertain and restrictive trade environment even for close allies. At the same time, European unease over US positions on issues such as Greenland and the increasing use of economic coercion signalled a shift in transatlantic dynamics. In this context, the UK appears compelled to adopt a hedging strategy by restoring and strengthening bilateral relations with China to diversify its economic and diplomatic options.

Fourth, addressing domestic crises through cooperation. The visit established critical law enforcement collaboration aimed at tackling pressing domestic challenges, particularly illegal immigration, the small boat crisis, and public health threats. In 2025, over 41,000 migrants crossed the English Channel via small boats, with UK intelligence revealing that 60 per cent of the outboard motors used by smuggling gangs were manufactured in China. Smugglers have also begun deploying Chinese-made “super dinghies” capable of carrying up to 100 people, significantly raising security risks. Simultaneously, the UK is grappling with a growing synthetic opioid crisis. These potent chemicals are largely sourced from China’s chemical and pharmaceutical sector. As heroin supplies declined under Taliban rule, the UK fears a surge in Chinese-made synthetic opioids, highlighting the urgency of bilateral cooperation to address these domestic threats at their source.

What does it mean?
First, a pragmatic shift from decoupling to de-risking. While the UK shields sensitive infrastructure like 5G, it also aims to expand trade in non-strategic sectors such as finance and employment. The visit marks the formal end of the "Ice Age." It means the UK can now distinguish between "safe" economic growth and "sensitive" security risks, allowing the government to protect its borders while simultaneously opening doors for its businesses.

Second, asserting strategic autonomy. By engaging with Beijing despite criticism from President Trump’s administration, PM Starmer is signalling that the UK will prioritise its own economic survival. By securing trade wins such as the 30-day visa waiver and whisky tariff cuts despite President Trump’s warnings, PM Starmer is also indicating the UK's position as a balancing factor in the UK-China rivalry.

Third, multidimensional foreign policy in action. The UK maintains deep security and democratic ties with India while pursuing a stable, transactional, and economically focused relationship with China. This visit transforms foreign policy into a direct tool for solving UK domestic crises.

About the authors

Akshath K is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.
Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.
R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.
Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Adwitiyo Das, Aksath Kaimal, Aishwarya D Pai, Aparna A Nair, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, R Preetha, Sakshi Yadav, Santhiya M, Tanvi Harendra, Tonica Sharon C, Yesasvi Koganti

CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Japan: Tokyo announces first successful retrieval of rare-earth-rich seabed mud in a test mission
On 02 February, Japan announced the first successful retrieval of rare-earth-rich seabed mud from depths of around six kilometres during a test mission near Minamitori Island, about 1,900 km southeast of Tokyo. The scientific drill vessel Chikyu, operated by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, departed on 12 January and began recovery on 30 January, confirming the successful retrieval of rare-earth mud, as per the Cabinet Office's national platform for innovative ocean development. Operations were completed at three sites, and samples will be analysed after the vessel returns to Shimizu on 15 February. The mud is said to contain dysprosium, neodymium, gadolinium, and terbium, essential for electric motors and advanced technologies. Officials stated that, barring setbacks, a full-scale mining trial is planned for February 2027. The mission supports Tokyo’s efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies of critical minerals; this comes in the backdrop of recent export restrictions by Beijing, which is affecting Japanese manufacturers.

China and Panama: Beijing warns of ‘heavy prices’ after court cancels CK Hutchison port contract
On 04 February, Reuters reported that China warned Panama of profound political and economic consequences after Panama’s Supreme Court annulled a long-standing contract held by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison to operate two key ports at the Panama Canal. China’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office criticised the ruling as unfair and accused Panama of undermining the legitimate interests of Chinese companies. The court decision cancelled a contract in place since the 1990s, citing constitutional and public-interest concerns. The ruling has also complicated CK Hutchison’s proposed 23-billion-dollar global port sale, which included the Panama Canal terminals. The move was welcomed by US officials and is being viewed as part of the broader US-China rivalry over strategic trade routes. While Panama has not formally responded to China’s warning, the episode highlights growing geopolitical pressure on smaller states caught between major powers competing for influence over global infrastructure.

SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
The Philippines: Lawmakers consider moving forward with impeachment complaints against the President
On 03 February, Reuters reported that Philippine lawmakers met to consider whether to move forward with two impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. He has been serving a six-year sentence and has denied all accusations. The complaints, filed by a lawyer and concerned activists, accuse President Marcos of betraying public trust, corruption, and violating the constitution. The allegations include allowing former president Rodrigo Duterte’s “kidnapping” and transfer to the Hague to face possible International Criminal Court charges over killings in his war on drugs. They also cite alleged misuse of public funds in a flood?control project and unresolved drug?use accusations, which President Marcos denies. The House justice committee has already ruled the complaints sufficient in form and is now assessing whether they are sufficient in substance before sending any recommendation to the full lower house. The lower house is dominated by President Marcos's allies, which makes it difficult to get the one-third support needed to impeach the president and trigger a Senate Trial.

Myanmar: Russia signs a new military alliance
On 04 February, Mizzima reported that Moscow said on Tuesday that Myanmar and Russia have signed a five-year military cooperation pact, which analysts say has been crucial to the junta’s grip on power. Myanmar’s military snatched power in a 2021 coup, triggering a civil war, and has relied on backing from Russia as well as neighbouring China to keep its forces stocked. Air strikes by Russian-made jets have kept surging rebel factions at bay, while also frequently targeting civilians in attacks, some conflict monitors say, which amount to war crimes. Russia’s defence ministry announced the new pact lasting until 2030 after a Monday visit to Myanmar by the Kremlin’s top security official, Sergei Shoigu. Shoigu stated, “Russia fully supports the Myanmar leadership’s course to protect territorial integrity and strengthen national sovereignty and security.”

SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Nepal and India: New Delhi allocates NPR 12.8 billion in aid
On 01 February, The Kathmandu Post reported that the Indian government has announced a grant of NPR 12.8 billion for the fiscal year 2026-2027, an increase of NPR 1.6 billion from last year. On Sunday, the Finance Minister of India, Nirmala Sitharaman, presented the Union Budget in Parliament, stating that Nepal would receive NPR 12.8 billion, equivalent to INR 8 billion. In the current fiscal year, India has revised its assistance to Nepal to NPR 13.28 billion, which is up from the initially announced NPR 11.2 billion. Among neighbouring countries, Bhutan remains the largest recipient, with NPR 36.61 billion allocated for 2026-27, which is up from NPR 31.2 billion in the ongoing fiscal year. Other allocations include NPR 8.8 billion for the Maldives, NPR 6.4 billion for Sri Lanka, NPR 4.8 billion for Myanmar, NPR 2.4 billion for Afghanistan, NPR 960 million for Bangladesh, NPR 3.6 billion for African countries, and NPR 400 million for Mongolia.

Nepal and the UAE: The government thanks the UAE for granting pardon to 267 Nepali prisoners
On 01 February, The Himalayan reported that the Government of Nepal expressed gratitude to the Government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for granting pardons to 267 Nepali inmates on the occasion of the UAE's 54th National Day (Eid Al Etihad). In a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it was said that the decision reflects a gesture of friendship, goodwill, and humanitarian consideration and underscores the cordial bilateral relations between the two countries. According to the ministry, the pardons were granted following repeated requests made by the Embassy of Nepal in Abu Dhabi, in line with directives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ministry stated that the pardoned Nepali nationals will be eligible to return to Nepal after completing the required legal procedures, provided they have no other pending cases or legal restrictions under UAE law.

Nepal: Interim government withdraws contentious Social Media Bill 2025
On 04 February, The Himalayan reported that the interim government has decided to withdraw one of the most contentious bills proposed by the previous KP Sharma Oli administration, the Social Media Act Bill 2025, which was drafted to make provisions regarding the operation, use and regulation of social media, from the Upper House of the Federal Parliament. According to Government Spokesperson and Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal, the Council of Ministers has approved the withdrawal of the SMB 2025. The SMB in the Upper House had sparked outrage for including several ambiguous sections, including those with severe penalties ranging from NPR 50,000 to NPR 10 million.

Bangladesh: Exports grow 11.22 per cent in January
On 02 February, The Daily Star reported that, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), Bangladesh's merchandise exports in January rose 11.22 per cent year-on-year to USD 4.41 billion, driven mainly by stronger garment shipments. The readymade garment sector maintained its dominant position, earning USD 22.98 billion during the period and posting year-on-year growth of 11.77 per cent, the EPB said in a statement.

Bangladesh: BNP Chairman instructs to resist attempts to delay vote counting
On 02 February, The Daily Star reported that the BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman has instructed all to resist any attempts to delay vote counting in the 13th parliamentary election. He stated at a rally in Jashore: "If anyone tries to take advantage by making excuses that vote counting will take longer, you must resist it.” He further added by stating, “We are hearing new stories these days. We are hearing that this time vote counting will take much longer. The people of this country may not have been able to vote for the last decade, but it is not that they have no experience of voting. They voted in 1991. They voted in 1996. They voted in 2001. The people of this country know how long vote counting takes.”

Pakistan and Afghanistan: “Exponential rise” in cross-border terrorism becoming “intolerable for Pakistan,” says representative to the UN
On 01 February, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, stated that the “exponential rise” in cross-border terrorist attacks originating from Afghanistan has made the situation “intolerable for Pakistan.” His remarks come amid a string of coordinated attacks in Balochistan. The military has accused Fitna al-Hindustan of the attacks, and Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti said 145 militants had been killed within 40 hours. Speaking to Dawn, Ambassador Ahmad reiterated Pakistan’s accusation that the Afghan Taliban are sheltering militant groups targeting Pakistan, and alleged India's support for proxy elements operating from Afghan soil. Ambassador Ahmed stated that “There is broad recognition of the danger posed by terrorism emanating from Afghanistan,” adding that the country “unfortunately remains a terrorism hub under the Taliban.” He noted that the UN secretary-general had recently stressed the international community’s expectation that Afghan territory not be used for cross-border terrorism, an obligation central to the 2020 Doha Agreement, remains unfulfilled.

Pakistan: World Bank sanctions loan to advance Pakistan’s grid upgrade
On 01 February, Dawn reported that the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) has approved a USD 378.9 million loan for a major power transmission overhaul in Pakistan, focused on improving grid stability, energy security, and the integration of variable renewable energy. The report said the project will fund reactive power management devices and provide technical assistance for institutional reforms at the national transmission and dispatch company, alongside co-financing of USD 92.5 million from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and USD 92.7 million from the Islamic Development Bank, taking total expected financing to about USD 698.75 million. The program will seek to address transmission problems that are preventing affordable power distribution by using its 2026 to 2035 schedule to implement LNG-based generation at high cost.

Pakistan and Bangladesh: Islamabad and Dhaka express interest in cooperation in human resource development and overseas labour management
On 02 February, Dawn reported that Pakistan and Bangladesh expressed interest in learning from each other’s best practices in human resource development and overseas labour management during discussions held on 01 February in Dubai. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the ‘Abu Dhabi Dialogue 2026’ between Pakistan’s Minister for Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development, Chaudhry Salik Hussain, and Bangladesh’s Adviser to the Ministry of Expatriates’ Welfare and Overseas Employment, Dr Asif Nazrul. Both sides discussed common challenges faced by their migrant workforces and shared views on recruitment processes, skills training, and reintegration mechanisms for returning workers. Pakistan officials spoke about the role of the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission, while the Bangladeshi side highlighted the functioning of its Technical Training Centres. The chairman of Pakistan’s Employees’ Old-Age Benefits Institution briefed on social protection measures for workers. The two sides also discussed the potential for expanding bilateral cooperation in labour and skills development.

Pakistan: Kazakhstan's President arrives for a two-day visit
On 03 February, Dawn reported that Kazakhstan's President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, had arrived in Pakistan on Tuesday for a two-day visit. This comes as both countries aim to strengthen bilateral ties, with Kazakhstan being Pakistan’s top export destination among Central Asian countries. President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Deputy PM Ishaq Dar received President Tokayev in Rawalpindi. “The Pakistan-Kazakhstan friendship is a time-tested partnership that continues to bring our peoples closer together. This visit marks a new milestone in our glorious journey,” PM Sharif posted on X. President Tokayev is being accompanied by senior cabinet ministers and other high-level ranking officials. According to the FO, he is expected to hold meetings with President Zardari and PM Sharif, as well as the Pakistan-Kazakhstan Business Forum. It added that the two countries will discuss new areas of cooperation, particularly in trade, logistics, regional connectivity and people-to-people contacts. This followed the signing of eight MoUs between the higher education institutions of the two countries on Monday.

Pakistan and Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan’s President and high-level delegation set to arrive in Islamabad for a two-day visit
On 04 February, as reported by Dawn, Pakistan’s Foreign Office stated that Uzbekistan's President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, would arrive in Pakistan on 05 February for a two-day official visit. A high-level delegation of cabinet ministers and business leaders will accompany President Mirziyoyev on his second visit to the country. FO added that the visiting dignitary will meet President Asif Ali Zardari, hold delegation-level talks with PM Shehbaz and address the Pakistan-Uzbekistan Business Forum. “Discussions will focus on reviewing the entire gamut of bilateral relations and identifying new avenues to further deepen cooperation in diverse sectors including trade, energy, defence, education, people-to-people exchange and regional connectivity,” it stated. The FO also stated that the visit signifies “the upward trajectory in Pakistan-Uzbekistan bilateral relations and the brotherly ties between the two brotherly countries, rooted in common history, faith and common aspirations for peace and prosperity in Central and South Asia.” In January, Islamabad and Tashkent agreed to expand bilateral trade to USD 2 billion during a meeting between PM Shehbaz and President Mirziyoyev.

Sri Lanka: Colombo unveils a five-year national action plan to strengthen anti-human trafficking efforts
On 02 February, The Island reported that on 28 January 2026, the National Anti-Human Trafficking Task Force (NAHTTF) had officially launched the National Strategic Action Plan to Monitor and Combat Human Trafficking (2026–2030), reaffirming Sri Lanka’s strong commitment to eliminating all forms of human trafficking and strengthening coordinated national responses. The launch was held under the patronage of Prime Minister Dr Harini Amarasuriya. She stated: “Caring for trafficking survivors in Sri Lanka requires a holistic, gender-sensitive, and survivor-centred approach that addresses both immediate protection and long-term recovery. This includes safe shelter, medical care, and trauma-informed psychological support, with particular attention to women and girls who experience more severe and gendered forms of violence, alongside legal assistance, economic empowerment, and skills development to prevent re-trafficking.” Developed with technical support from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), the National Strategic Action Plan 2026-2030 establishes a unified national framework to prevent human trafficking, protect and assist victims, strengthen law enforcement responses, and enhance accountability.

Bhutan: The trade deficit more than doubles in 2025
On 04 February, Kuensel reported that according to the latest trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance, Bhutan's trade balance deteriorated sharply in 2025, with the overall trade deficit more than doubling from the previous year. Including electricity, the country's trade deficit widened to BTN 120.8 billion in 2025 from BTN 58.7 billion in 2024, an increase of about 106 per cent. Exports rose to BTN 69.3 billion in 2025, up by about 11 per cent from BTN 62.5 billion in 2024. This is the highest deficit in the last 10 years. The deficit also overshot the government's effort to keep it below five per cent of GDP.

Bhutan: Asia’s model forest summit in progress
On 04 February, Kuensel reported that Bhutan is hosting the Regional Model Forest Network-Asia (RMFN-Asia) 2026 Annual Advisory Committee Meeting (AACM) from 2 February to 7 February in Paro. This marks an important step in the country's preparations to establish its first model forest, with the Punakha-Wangdue landscape as a key focus. The meeting brings together representatives of model forests, forestry agencies, and strategic partners from across Asia to review progress, share experiences, and guide the future direction of the model forest approach in the region. Bhutan's selection as host reflects both regional interest in its forest management and its growing engagement with the International Model Forest Network (IMFN), a forestry official said. Bhutan and Vietnam are among the countries considering establishing model forests and joining the network.

Maldives: “This is money printing; it could raise inflation,” says Ahmad Saruvash Adam
On 04 February, Sun Online reported that the MVR 2.4 billion transaction planned by the Maldives Pension Administration Office (MPAO) will release excess Rufiyaa into circulation and raise inflation, says Ahmed Saruvash Adam, who resigned from the MPAO’s board in protest of the proposal last year, as he also called out the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) for failing to properly explain why such a move is necessary at such a critical time for the Maldivian economy. According to MPAO, the Finance Ministry proposed investing in an MVR 2.4 billion treasury bond with dual currency, the MVR and USD returns. The MPAO says that, based on the liquidity of the pension fund, the proposed method of securing funding for the investment is by raising money by selling in the secondary market, MVR 2.4 billion in treasury bonds invested in by the Maldives Retirement Pension Scheme. Saruvash said that when the MMA releases Rufiyaa into circulation, it increases the supply of Rufiyaa, and is therefore taken as money printing.

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
The US-Iran Confrontation: Nuclear talks resume in Oman amid tensions; Iran rejects demand for zero domestic enrichment but open to further discussions
On 02 February, Reuters reported that Iran warned of a wider regional conflict if the United States were to attack it, amid heightened tensions following a US naval build-up in the Middle East. Iran also announced retaliatory measures against the European Union after it designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation, with Tehran responding by labelling the EU armies as terrorist groups. The warning came as Washington increased its military presence in the region and President Donald Trump reiterated pressure on Tehran over nuclear negotiations and domestic unrest. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran would respond forcefully to any attack but denied seeking confrontation. Despite the rhetoric, both sides have signalled openness to diplomacy.

On 03 February, at a World Government Summit panel in Dubai, the UAE's diplomatic adviser to the president stated that the Middle East does not need another confrontation between Iran and the US, urging Tehran to reach a nuclear deal with Washington. As a parallel effort, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi are set to meet in Istanbul on 06 February, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt also participating.

On 04 February, Reuters reported that, according to officials, the US and Iran are due to hold nuclear talks in Oman on 06 February amid heightened tensions, after Tehran requested a change of venue from Turkey and a bilateral format limiting the negotiations to its nuclear program. US President Donald Trump cautioned that "bad things" could arise without an agreement, as he deploys more military forces to the Middle East.

On 06 February, Reuters reported that Iran and the United States held indirect talks in Oman, mediated by Omani officials, amid heightened tensions and fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran conveyed that the discussions should focus strictly on nuclear issues. At the same time, the US has sought to broaden the agenda to include Iran’s ballistic missile programme, regional activities, and human rights concerns. Iranian officials reiterated that its missile programme remains non-negotiable and warned that expanding the scope of talks could undermine the process.

On 07 February, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned that it would not be possible to launch strikes on American soil, but Tehran will strike the US bases in the region if Washington attacks, and insisted that it should not be seen as an attack on the countries hosting them. “We will not attack neighbouring countries; rather, we will target U.S. bases stationed in them. Araqchi also stated that Tehran and Washington pledged to continue indirect nuclear talks following what both sides described as positive discussions in Oman. "We and Washington believe it should be held soon,” he informed. Following the talks, Iran rejected Washington’s demand for zero domestic enrichment, a diplomat said Tehran was open to talks on enrichment levels and purity, or alternative arrangements such as a regional consortium. In return, Iran is seeking immediate sanctions relief, including in banking and oil, and a reduction of US military deployments near Iran. Despite the ongoing talks, Trump signed an executive order that could impose a 25 per cent tariff on countries trading with Iran.

The War in Gaza: The Rafah crossing opens under limited movement and surveillance; US plans the first leaders ‘Board of Peace’ meeting in Washington on 19 February
On 02 February, Israel reopened the Rafah Crossing between Gaza and Egypt with conditions of limited movement and heavy surveillance. The opening of the crossing had been one of the key provisions of President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. Nearly 50 people are expected to return to Gaza on the first day of the opening, reported Reuters. Despite the reopening of Rafah, Israel continues to bar foreign journalists from entering Gaza, a restriction in place since the start of the war. Israel’s Supreme Court is reviewing a petition by the Foreign Press Association seeking access for foreign reporters.

On 07 February, Reuters reported that the first leaders’ meeting of US President Trump’s “Board of Peace” on Gaza is scheduled for 19 February, according to an Axios report, citing US officials and diplomats from four member countries. The meeting, which is still in its early planning stages, is set to take place at the US Institute of Peace in Washington and may focus on fundraising for the reconstruction of Gaza. The meeting is set to take place a day after Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump on 18 February, but the White House and the US State Department have refused to comment on the matter. Trump formed the board towards the end of January, saying it would help resolve global conflicts, which has raised fears of weakening the United Nations. While some of its Middle Eastern allies have agreed to participate in the plan, many of its Western allies have been wary of it.

Syria: The State forces deployed into a Kurdish-run city under a ceasefire deal
On 02 February, under a US-backed ceasefire agreement, the Syrian government security forces entered the Kurdish-controlled city of Hasakah in the northeast. The ceasefire declared on 30 January prevented further clashes between President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government and the SDF. The deal also provided for Kurdish-run regions to be merged with Damascus, reducing the risk of renewed conflict. Reuters reported that early this evening, its journalists witnessed a convoy of more than 30 Interior Ministry vehicles moving toward Hasakah, with two locals confirming that government forces would enter the city shortly. The forces are expected to be deployed in Syrian state buildings within Hasakah’s “security zone.” Its position weakened as President Donald Trump strengthened ties with Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda commander who has since restored Damascus’s authority over most of Syria.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Guinea-Bissau: The interim administration that emerged through a coup releases the former Prime Minister and pledges to develop an inclusive government
On 02 February, the administration that took power in Guinea-Bissau in a November 2025 coup pledged to include the revolutionary PAIGC party in government and to free its leader, former prime minister Domingos Simões Pereira, though he remains under house arrest. Army officers in Guinea-Bissau, calling themselves the Military High Command, ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embalo on 26 November and installed Major General Horta Inta-a as interim president the following day. The coup had disrupted both presidential and legislative elections. The moves appear aimed at easing pressure from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, which has suspended Guinea-Bissau and is demanding a swift return to civilian rule, reported Reuters. In a letter sent to ECOWAS, interim leader Horta Inta-a outlined plans for an “inclusive” transitional government, pledging to release all political prisoners. Under the proposal, three cabinet posts would be allocated to the PAIGC, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, while another three would go to the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), led by Fernando Dias, who emerged as President Embalo’s strongest challenger in the November election.

DRC Congo: The government and M23 agree on detailed ceasefire terms; UN to deploy ceasefire monitoring mission to Uvira, says Qatar
On 02 February, Qatar’s foreign ministry stated that the UN peacekeeping mission in Congo will send its first team to monitor a ceasefire between Congo’s government and the AFC/M23 rebel group in the coming days. The ministry said the team would be deployed to Uvira, a strategic city in eastern Congo that was seized by AFC/M23 fighters in December 2025. The announcement follows the Doha-mediated direct talks between Congo and the AFC/M23 rebels, and the ministry has further informed that Congo and M23 agreed on detailed terms of reference for a ceasefire monitoring mechanism established under an October agreement and reaffirmed their commitments to the broader peace framework signed in November 2025.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: In Abu Dhabi, Kyiv and Moscow begin the second round of US-brokered peace talks; US pushes for a peace deal by summer in the second round of talks in Abu Dhabi
On 04 February, Ukraine and Russia's negotiators began a second round of US-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Ukraine’s top negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said discussions are taking place both jointly and in separate working groups to address different issues in the war. The talks are designed to build on earlier diplomatic efforts to reach a settlement, including on ceasefire terms and longer-term security arrangements. Despite the diplomatic engagement, the two sides remain far apart on core questions, especially Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede territory it currently controls in the eastern Donetsk region. It is a key sticking point that has previously blocked progress.

On 05 January, the delegation agreed to exchange 314 prisoners of war, the first such swap in about five months. US special envoy Steve Witkoff called the discussions “detailed and productive.” The agreement marked a notable outcome from the latest round of diplomatic engagement, though significant work remains on broader peace terms. Ukraine’s lead negotiator said talks were ongoing in separate working groups on various issues. Russia’s envoy noted efforts to restore relations with the US even as disputes continue. Meanwhile, on the battlefield, the Ukrainian military said it struck infrastructure at a Russian missile launch site, targeting facilities linked to long-range weapons.

On 07 January, media reported that US and Ukrainian officials have discussed an ambitious goal of achieving a peace agreement as early as March 2026, potentially coupled with national elections and a referendum, though this timeline faces significant legal and logistical challenges. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky also said Washington wants both sides to agree on an end to the war by summer, with a possible next round of talks in the United States.

The New START: The last remaining agreement limiting the Russian and US nuclear arsenal expires; Washington pushes for new nuclear arms control treaty after New START expiry
On 04 February, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, expired after 15 years since its enforcement on 05 February 2011. The expiration of the treaty has sparked major concerns over the resurgence of a nuclear arms race. Alexandra Bell, the president and chief executive of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, expressed that “Nuclear risks have become more complex, more dangerous and we have seen leaders fail in their obligation to manage those risks.” Earlier, in September 2025, President Putin had proposed extending the treaty by another year. However, in his recent response, Trump indicated a shift in tone, stating that "If it expires, it expires,” and that “We'll just do a better agreement." Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, also responded that “This is a new moment, a new reality – we are ready for it.”

On 05 February, Reuters reported that Russia expressed regret over the expiry of the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Moscow and Washington. The treaty, which limited strategic nuclear warheads, missiles, and launchers, formally lapsed after more than a decade in force. President Donald Trump has stated that any future agreement should be broader and include China. Security experts have warned that the absence of a binding framework could increase mistrust and raise the risk of an arms race.

On 07 January, the United States called for a new nuclear arms control treaty involving not only Russia but also China. At a disarmament conference in Geneva, US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno said President Donald Trump has been clear that he wants a new treaty to address modern nuclear threats and include China, whose arsenal is growing rapidly. The US also accused China of secretly conducting a nuclear test in 2020, allegations Beijing denied. China has said it will not participate in such negotiations, maintaining that its nuclear forces are smaller and that it will not join disarmament talks at this.

Russia and Germany: Russia’s Foreign Ministry summons the head of the German Embassy in Moscow in a tit-for-tat response
On 05 February, Russia expelled a German diplomat in return for Berlin’s earlier removal of a Russian official. Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the head of the German Embassy in Moscow, making it a formal protest against Germany’s allegation that the expelled Russian diplomat had engaged in espionage. The ministry said the accusation was a “a low-level provocation,” adding that it reflected “spy mania” within German authorities. Reuters reported that, across Europe, security services are warned of an increasing threat from Russian intelligence operations looking to deter Western support for Ukraine. On 02 February, Britain also expelled a Russian diplomat as a reciprocal step after Moscow had earlier removed a British diplomat on allegations of undeclared espionage. Russia has denied involvement in activities that Western intelligence officials have stated as a broader sabotage campaign across the continent.

AMERICAS THIS WEEK

The India-US Trade Deal: Joint statement on interim trade framework issued; Washington lifts 25 per cent import tariffs on New Delhi, no tariff relief has been given to US agricultural and dairy imports
On 02 February, President Trump announced a trade deal with India that reduces US tariffs on Indian goods to about 18 per cent from 50 per cent in exchange for India agreeing to halt its purchases of Russian oil and lower trade barriers. The announcement, made after a call between President Trump and PM Narendra Modi, included commitments from India to increase imports of US energy, defence equipment, technology, and agricultural products. Trump stated that India would “likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO." India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated on X that the agreement "unlocks unprecedented opportunities for farmers, MSMEs, entrepreneurs, and skilled workers to Make in India for the world, Design in India for the world, and Innovate in India for the world. It will help India get technology from the U.S."
On 06 February, India and the US issued a joint statement announcing the framework for an Interim Agreement, and that they would continue working together towards a more comprehensive bilateral trade agreement. Separately, President Trump issued an executive order lifting the additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods after New Delhi committed to halt direct and indirect imports of Russian oil. However, the joint statement did not mention India’s Russian oil purchases or a formal pledge from India to confirm the move. In a press conference, India’s Minister of Commerce, Piyush Goyal, clarified that “All sensitive items have been kept out of the deal. No genetically modified items will enter India,” and that no tariff relief has been given to US agricultural and dairy imports. It was also highlighted that export duties to the US in several sectors would be cut from 50 per cent to zero under the interim framework. Key beneficiaries include gems and diamonds, pharmaceuticals and generic drugs, aircraft and machinery parts and auto components. Goyal called it a “big win” as the US agreed to supply key ICT products India requires.

The US and Colombia: President Trump and Gustavo Petro hold their first face-to-face meeting at the White House; Both leaders describe the meeting in positive terms
On 03 February, President Trump and Gustavo Petro held their first face-to-face meeting at the White House, reflecting a significant shift in their bilateral relations following months of tension. Reuters reported that analysts and advisers had questioned whether productive engagement was possible, given previous exchanges of sharp criticism and ideological differences. The roughly two-hour meeting took place behind closed doors with no media present. In subsequent statements, both leaders spoke positively about the meeting, though no specific agreements were announced. "We worked on it, and we got along very well,” stated President Trump on reaching a consensus on combating the flow from Colombia. Petro also reported discussing cooperation on drug trafficking and regional issues; he requested US support in capturing major drug traffickers outside Colombia and for mediating tensions with Ecuador. Prior to this meeting, ties between Trump and Petro were strained; in October, Trump imposed sanctions on Petro for alleged links to drug trafficking. President Petro denied those claims; he also condemned US strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats as war crimes and referred to US operations in Venezuela as “kidnapping."

The US, the UN and the ICC: President Trump's administration imposes sanctions on ICC staff and a UN official, calling their actions “illegitimate and baseless”
On 06 February, President Trump's administration expanded sanctions against international justice bodies, including the International Criminal Court (ICC) and a United Nations human rights expert. Reuters described it as part of a broader campaign to counter actions perceived as threatening US interests. The US Treasury Department sanctioned Francesca Albanese, a UN human rights expert. She got placed on US's sanctions list alongside suspects such as terrorists and drug traffickers, after she said that a future UN report might name some US companies for their possible role in human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank. The US treated this as a serious threat and put her on a sanctions list that is usually meant for terrorists and criminals. The administration also sanctioned eight ICC judges and three prosecutors, further restricting their financial and travel rights. The sanctions froze assets and barred access to financial systems, prompting concerns among legal experts and UN officials about the impact on international justice and human rights work. The US government said it acted against what it called “illegitimate and baseless” investigations, particularly those involving US companies and personnel.
 

ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Padmashree Anandan is a Project Associate at NIAS.

Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS.

Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and is currently pursuing post-graduation at Stella Maris College, Chennai.

Anu Maria Joseph was a Project Associate at NIAS.

Conflict Weekly Editorial Team: Adwitiyo Das, Abhimanyu Solanki, Akshath K, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, R Preetha, Sakshi Yadav and Yesasvi Koganti

Assistant Editors: Brighty Ann Sarah & Anu Maria Joseph

Editor: D. Suba Chandran