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Padmashree Anandhan
31 December 2025 |
What happened?
On 14 and 16 February, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2025 was held in Munich, Germany. The conference focused on global security challenges including improving international governance, Ukraine’s defence, boosting Europe’s defence capability, illegal migration, and protecting the democratic values of Europe. It also focussed on the shifting US foreign policy, increasing cyber threats and the need for more regional cooperation, especially over security and defence.
On 14 February, US Vice-President JD Vance stirred the conference with his critical stance on Europe and Germany. He spoke on a wide range of issues relating to the state of democracy, free speech, and the values that hold the EU and the US together. He argued Europe’s threat to be within or not outside highlighted the concerns over democracy, the right to express, and growing censorship. He cited examples of Romania, the UK, and Sweden where individuals faced legal penalties for expressing controversial views and cancellation of elections. He also criticised Europe’s migration policy and stressed its leaders to respect the voices of their citizens to counter the challenges.
On 14 February, in her speech, European Commission’s President Ursula Von Der Leyen formulated a strategic vision for Europe in the changing global dynamics. She called Europe to adapt to the emerging threats from Russian aggression and intense economic tussle between the US and China. She proposed an “escape clause” to boost investment in defence with more fiscal elasticity for a coordinated approach. She also highlighted Europe’s support to Ukraine to be EUR 134 billion largest aid of all and stressed Europe’s “peace through strength” principle. Ukraine’s membership in the EU was seen as crucial, especially continuing support. She strongly objected to trade wars and called for mutual prosperity but she mentioned that the EU would not tolerate unfair tariffs.
On the same day, NATO’s Secretary General, Mark Rutte said: “This is not about the peace deal. Some think it has to be part of a peace deal, but it’s not part of the outcome. We have to take it step by step, and make sure the deal ensures Putin will not try again.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Let's be clear, we cannot rule out the possibility that America may refuse to cooperate with Europe on issues that threaten it. Ukraine will never accept deals behind our backs without our involvement, and the same rule should apply to all of Europe.”
What is the background?
First, a brief history of the MSC. Founded in 1963 by Ewald von Kleist, initially as a part of the Cold War, the MSC focused majorly on security, defence looking at NATO’s posture and the EU-US relations. The participants in the conference were military officials, politicians, and diplomats to strategize against the Soviet Union. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the MSC started discussing security challenges including the Balkan wars, NATO expansion, and international terrorism. It expanded further to include global security, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the increasing role of China and India, and now into new challenges such as cyber threats, AI, 5G, climate change, Russian aggression in Ukraine, Syria, and the larger multipolar world order. NATO and transatlantic relations remain the center of discussions and at present there is an urgency to boost Europe’s defence capabilities.
Second, a brief background to the 2025 MSC. It took place just ahead of Germany elections with the far-right AFD party gaining support with debates on Germany’s approach to NATO, its military commitments and its stance on Ukraine. This year’s MSC also took place with the return of Trump in the US, and his foreign policy postures towards Russia, Ukraine and the Gaza conflict in Israel.
Third, the growing divide between the US and Europe. The MSC which has been the core to navigate NATO and the EU-US relations has become the stage for refute in 2025. This comes as the EU and the US go through political shifts. This divide has become more evident over approaching the war in Ukraine, where the US plans for direct negotiations with Russia, excluding Ukraine and Europe. The inward-looking approach of the Trump administration has created a leadership gap in addressing global problems and the conference has become the showcase of challenges in transatlantic relations struggling to adapt to new multipolar problems.
What does this mean?
First, the discord in the transatlantic. The 2024 European elections became the first stark image laying the path for a further divided Europe. The consequences of the US not supporting Ukraine in the negotiations and high tariffs on the EU and countermeasures would further the complexities.
Second, MSC against new challenges. The MSC was formed initially to strategize against the Soviet Union. This later broadened to look at Russia and the rise of China and newer domains such as cyber security and AI. At present with the geopolitical challenges stepping into new complexities along with drastic political changes, the problems have begun to emerge from within.
About of author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS, Bengaluru.
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