Photo Source: AFP
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in
NIAS AFRICA STUDIES
Ethiopia and Sudan: Governance in deadlock
Anu Maria Joseph
|
Ethiopia and Sudan: Governance in deadlock
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia and Sudan have been in the spotlight this year. In November 2022, Ethiopia signed a peace deal with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), giving hope that the ethnic conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region would end. However, the peace agreement had several loopholes that led to ethnic conflicts across the neighbouring regions of Afar, Amhara and Oromia. The skirmishes began after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed demanded that all ethnic militias, including Amhara’s Fano militia, Tigray’s TPLF and Oromo’s Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) be integrated into the Ethiopian federal force.
In Sudan, the transitional military government was supposed to lead to civilian rule in 2024. However, Sudan is in a bigger crisis with an ongoing civil war between two military heads- Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Hamdan Dagalo of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict, which started as a power struggle, has evolved into a larger conflict spreading across the capital, Khartoum, and the cities of Omdurman, Bahri, Wad Madani and Port Sudan. The conflict has also evolved into ethnic conflict across West Darfur, South Darfur, Central Darfur, Nile and Kordofan. Besides, the paramilitary group has begun targeting the states of North Darfur and Al Jazira. In between, the Arab and non-Arab clashes are escalating, reminding of the Darfur conflict in 2003. Several ceasefires failed due to a lack of commitment and compliance. The RSF has gained significant ground in the capital, Khartoum, as well as other regions. While the conflict is intensifying and spreading, SAF and RSF aim to gain legitimacy by establishing parallel governments in Port Sudan and Khartoum, respectively.
Sudan and Ethiopia, two major actors in the Horn of Africa, have become the conflict hotspots of the African continent in 2023. The Sudanese Revolution 2019, which ended 30 years of Omar al Bashir’s rule, was a bigger achievement for Sudan in reaching a civilian government. Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel Peace Prize for resolving the conflict with Eritrea was a focal point for the international community, analysing how Ethiopia would evolve as a better democracy. However, in 2023, both countries have taken a steep downturn.
Major Issues in 2023
First, the ethnic differences. In Ethiopia, deep ethno-nationalist sentiments are the drivers behind the inter-ethnic clashes. From 1991 to 2018, the minority TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics, fueling ethnic animosity from the Afar, Somali, Oromia and Amhara communities. When Abiy Ahmed came to power, ending the decades-long Tigray dominance, other ethnic groups believed the new government was an opportunity to address years-long ethnic marginalisation. Instead, Abiy’s policies escalated the ethnic tensions. Abiy’s aggressive measures to unify Ethiopia were not welcome by any of the ethnic groups. Deep-printed ethno-nationalist sentiments and socio-economic insecurities of each ethnic community forced them to defend each other using their regional ethnic militias.
In Sudan, for the past twenty years, ethnic conflict has been prevalent in the Darfur region. Besides Darfur, the Nile and Kordofan regions are also affected by conflict between Arab and non-Arab ethnic groups. The tensions are over land, water and resources. The civil war has put the governance in these ethnically fragile regions in jeopardy. Besides, RSF and SAF taking sides with Arab and non-Arab militias would lead the civil war to a larger ethnic tragedy.
Second, a fragile state. State fragility, state failure and state collapse are common in African countries that have followed an alien model of governance and nation-building introduced by their colonial masters. Consequently, these countries have faced several governance challenges including interethnic conflicts, massive displacement, multiple massacres, humanitarian crises and proliferation of militant groups.
In Ethiopia, TPLF’s rule for decades was majoritarian, where the Tigray ethnic group handled the power hierarchy for years. Although Ethiopia enjoyed relative peace during the TPLF regime, decades-long ethnic grievances were suppressed under their control. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed initially had a better vision of inclusive centralised Ethiopia. However, the aggressive policies that he opted for subsequently backfired. A sudden change to a federal society divided under ethnic identity was rejected. Abiy’s aggressive policies on a progressive vision failed with the outbreak of several ethnic conflicts. The inability of the state to address the underlying issues has increased the tendency of ethnic groups to rely on their means of security. Ethiopia has become fragile and is slowly descending into a state of failure.
Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has been on a rollercoaster in its search for inclusive and sustainable governance. However, governments and institutions have failed so far. Political elites and military leaders who came to power in Sudan adopted political violence, ethnic upper hand and inequitable means of wealth distribution to serve their interests. The country had to go through two civil wars and the separation of South Sudan. The military elites ignore challenges posed by unresolved ethnic and regional grievances and identity politics. Thus, the lack of political will for conflict resolution and a civilian transition has delayed all aspects of inclusive governance in Sudan. Sudan as a state has failed and is collapsing.
Third, escalation in conflicts. The conflict in Ethiopia has increased in number this year with a spread to Amhara, Oromia, Afar and Somali regions. Additionally, the conflict is intensifying with limited efforts addressing the root causes. Abiy’s government has failed to gain public legitimacy. Regional efforts, including the African Union’s, are minimal due to Abiy’s influence in the organisation and international support to Aby’s government.
In Sudan, the conflict is escalating in terms of geography and intensity. What started in Khartoum has spread to Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan and the peripheral states of Darfur, Kordofan, Al Jazira and Nile. Regional efforts to end the conflict in Sudan are being ignored. Although the external actors can bring the warring parties to the negotiating table, implementing those efforts remains challenging. They have failed to propose a ceasefire that matches the conflict context.
2024: Looking Ahead
Ethiopia and Sudan will be in the spotlight in 2024 as well. Unless Abiy’s approach to the ethnic tensions is pragmatic, addressing the underlying issues, a peaceful Ethiopia is Utopian. An escalation of conflict can be witnessed in 2024. The fragile state will likely evolve into a failed state.
In Sudan, resolving the conflict and the power struggle remains elusive, with both sides trying to legitimise their leadership. Similar is the trajectory of a civilian transition. The revolution is dead, and the state has failed. The humanitarian crisis would likely increase in both countries with high casualties, ethnic violence, human rights atrocities, war crimes, poverty and displacement.
About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Associate at NIAS.
Bookmark |
NIAS Africa Team
Africa This Week (16-22 March)
NIAS Africa Team
Africa This Week
NIAS Africa Team
Africa This Week (1 March-7 March)
NIAS Africa Team
Africa This Week (24 February-29 February)
NIAS Africa Team
Africa This Week
NIAS Africa Team
Africa This Week (3-10 Feb 2024)
Jerry Franklin A
Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON): Five Questions
Narmatha S and Anu Maria Jospeh
Ethiopia-Somalia tensions over Somaliland | Explained
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia and Sudan: Governance in deadlock
Nithyashree RB
COP28 and Africa: Priorities and Initiatives
Anu Maria Joseph
Sierra Leone: A failed coup
Jerry Franklin A
Floods in East Africa
Sneha Surendran
Africa’s debate on colonial reparations
Anu Maria Joseph
Sudan’s ceasefires remain elusive: Four reasons why
Nithyashree RB
Liberia elections: Explained
Jerry Franklin
France's increasing unpopularity in Niger
Anu Maria Joseph
Africa in the Indian Ocean region: Explained
Jerry Franklin A
Sudan: Escalated fighting between rival factions and its implications
Anu Maria Joseph
Taiwan in Africa: The Last Ally and the Lost Allies
Sneha Surendran
Africa Climate Summit: Rising new leadership in climate action
Nithyashree RB
Coup in Gabon: Three questions
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #78 | Coup in Gabon
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #77 | Profile on Ethiopia’s ethnic groups: Composition, Representation and Issues
Jerry Franklin A
A profile on Ethiopia's Oromo ethnic group
Sneha Surendran
A profile on Ethiopia’s Somali ethnic group
Nithyashree RB
A profile on Ethiopia’s Afar ethnic group
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia’s Amhara problem
Jerry Franklin A
ECOWAS and Niger remain at an impasse, causing a prolonged standoff
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #75&76 | Ethiopia’s conflict in Amhara and Prolonged standoff in Niger
Jerry Franklin A
Coup in Niger: Manifold national, regional and international stances
Sneha Surendran
Senegal's political crisis: Four questions
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #73&74 | Coup in Niger and Senegal’s political crisis
Nithyashree RB
The UN in Africa: MINUSMA has failed. So did Mali
Devjyoti Saha
China-Africa Security Partnership: Expansion Across Spectrums
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #72 | End of MIUSMA in Mali and Chinese Security Interventions in Africa
Jerry Franklin A
A Profile of the Wagner group in Africa: From supporting military, authoritarian leaders to fighting militancy and mine licencing
Anu Maria Joseph
The Wagner Group in Africa: Fallouts of the failed revolt in Russia
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #69-71 | The Wagner Group in Africa
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #68 | Eritrea Rejoining IGAD and Resurging Insurgency in Uganda
Anu Maria Joseph
Resurging insurgency in Uganda and insecurity in East Africa
Jerry Franklin
Eritrea: Back to the IGAD after 16 years
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #67 | Persisting Ethnic Cleansing in Ethiopia's Tigray Region and a Political profile on Tunisia
Jerry Franklin
Tunisia: A Political Profile
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #66 | Ceasefires in Sudan & Cameroon’s Anglophone Crisis
Jerry Franklin
Cameroon’s Anglophone Crisis: Reasons for its continuation
Anu Maria Joseph
Ceasefires in Sudan: An uneasy trajectory
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus | Japan in Africa
Devjyoti Saha
Japan in Africa: Renewed Efforts to Revitalise Relations
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan: Intensifying political rivalry and expanding violence
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Nigeria’s new wave of kidnappings: Who, why and what fallouts
NIAS Africa Team
Expanding Russia-South Africa relations
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia: The question of undocumented migrants
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Nigeria elections: Ruling party wins; What is ahead?
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | M23 atrocities in DRC and upcoming Nigeria elections
NIAS Africa Team
Africa in 2023: Elections and conflicts
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Bamako’s pardon of Ivorian soldiers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The relapse of ANC
NIAS Africa Team
The US-Africa Leaders Summit
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The Wagner Group, exploitation of conflicts and increased dependency on Russia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | End of Operation Barkhane
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Challenges to peace in Eastern Congo
NIAS Africa Team
China-Africa relations: Looking back and looking ahead
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chad's political crisis
NIAS Africa Team
Floods in West Africa: Nigeria and beyond
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Famine in Somalia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Kenya Elections 2022
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The reinvention of Al Shabab
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Lavrov's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia's political crisis
NIAS Africa Team
Tunisia’s political crisis: Five questions
NIAS Africa Team
Tribal conflict in Blue Nile: Causes and Implications
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan-Ethiopia border tensions and a profile of Blaise Compaoré
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s continuing migration problem: Three issues
NIAS Africa Team
Visit of the Belgium King to the DRC and tensions between the DRC and Rwanda
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s displacement crises: Three key drivers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Into the Sixth Decade of African Unity
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Communal Tensions in Ethiopia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Mali ends defence ties with France
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | UK-Rwanda asylum deal
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Africa, Russia, and the War in Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The rise of East African Community: From the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Political Crisis in Tunisia
NIAS Africa Team
60 years of Algerian independence
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus: Libya
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Anu Maria Joseph
Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Nireekshan Bollimpalli
Africa’s slow COVID vaccination continues. Four reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Conflict over the Nile Dam
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Instability in Burkina Faso
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Africa: The anti-France sentiments in Mali and beyond
Apoorva Sudhakar
Coup in Burkina Faso: Five things to know
Harshita Rathore
Famine in Ethiopia: The government's refusal to acknowledge, worsens the crisis
Apoorva Sudhakar
Africa’s Stolen Future:Child abductions, lost innocence, and a glaring reflection of State failure in Nigeria
Anu Maria Joseph
South Africa: What is behind the pro-Zuma protests?
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Impending famine in Tigray, should make Ethiopia everyone's problem
Anu Maria Joseph
Too late and too little is Ethiopia's international problem
Sankalp Gurjar
Africa's Ethiopia Problem
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia's Tigray problem is Tigray's Ethiopia problem
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Migration in Africa: Origin, Drivers and Destinations
Apoorva Sudhakar
15 of the 23 global hunger hotspots are in Africa. Three reasons why
Apoorva Sudhakar