NIAS Area Studies


AFRICA MONITOR

Africa Comment

Photo Source: Google Maps
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1749, 16 July 2025
Global Politics Explainer
Africa as the Hunger Epicenter

  R Preetha

On 16 June, the "Hunger Hotspots" report for June to October 2025 was launched by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP). The latest report projects a deterioration of acute food insecurity in 13 global hotspots, with Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali identified as the hotspots of highest concern. Notably, eight of these 13 hotspots are in Africa: Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad. This commentary identifies the following five as reasons for the same.

1. Armed conflicts as a driver of food insecurity
Of the 13 hotspots, armed violence is identified as the key driver of stark food insecurity in 12 hotspots, and it remains the major contributor in the top 5 hotspots, which include Sudan, South Sudan, and Mali. In Sudan, famine conditions, which were confirmed in 2024, are expected to continue given the conflict and displacement driven by it, especially in the regions of Kordofan and Darfur. This is said to increase cross-border movements to Chad, Egypt and South Sudan, adding to the 12.8 million forcibly displaced since the conflict began in 2023, the world's largest regional displacement crisis. Likewise, Sudan faces hunger due to subnational violence and political tensions, compounded by economic and flood risks. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the escalation of the conflict earlier this year has led to a record food insecurity projection of 27.7 million, driven by displacement. In Mali, conflict, combined with high levels of access constraints in the northern and central regions, has led to severe disruptions in the food system. In comparison, Burkina Faso faces the impact of increased violence and rising food prices.

2. Economic fragility undermines food security
Projections indicate a decline in global economic growth to 2.8 per cent in 2025, down from the IMF's January forecast of 3.3 per cent.  Global economic fragility, along with high debt burdens, geopolitical volatility, and trade disruptions such as the new tariffs, are said to exacerbate the state of food insecurity. Sudan faces the risk of partial economic collapse this year, driven by conflict, high inflation and limited food access. Constraints on Red Sea shipping have restricted imports of essential goods, contributing to foreign currency deficits. Sudan's conflict is also significantly affecting South Sudan's economy. Breakage in one of the key pipelines transporting South Sudanese oil via Sudan has severely impacted South Sudan's oil revenue, worsening inflation in the country. Below-average projections for harvests, stock depletion, and increased shipping rates are expected to sustain high food prices in Somalia. In Mali and Burkina Faso, conflict-linked market disruptions led to hikes in food prices, limiting household purchasing power and thus food affordability. Nigeria's high inflation has drastically increased living costs, pushing millions below subsistence levels. In the DRC, current fighting, especially in North and South Kivu, is expected to affect agricultural activities and markets. Along with hikes in food prices are said to be key economic factors impacting food security in the country.

3. Climate variability, weather extremes and food insecurity
Africa's hunger hotspots are exposed to weather extremes and heightened climate variability. The report highlights that droughts, floods, erratic rainfall, and cyclones are expected to persist, exacerbating acute food insecurity in the region. South Sudan faces the risk of flash floods due to above-average rainfall predictions for the outlook period, which could lead to further displacement and impact agricultural production.  Likewise, in West Africa and the Sahel, floods remain a key concern. Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad (southern region) face flood-driven challenges to crop production, livelihood, and thus food security.

4. Inadequate humanitarian assistance and funding
Funding for food, nutrition assistance and emergency agriculture remains critically low at present, and the prediction highlights an increase in funding constraints. These shortfalls, along with stark constraints on access, risk severely limiting the delivery of food and nutrition support. The beginning of 2025 witnessed significant cuts to official development assistance (ODA) from major donors. As per the report, in food crisis contexts, nearly 75 per cent of the funding for food and nutrition aid comes from only four donors. Out of this, the US alone provides half. If any of these four donors reduce their funding, especially the US, it would substantially affect the ability to deliver life and livelihood saving assistance. In 2024, a decline in ODA was observed for the first time in five consecutive years of growth, as per preliminary data from the OECD. An additional 13 per cent decline is estimated in 2025. Without urgent humanitarian action and coordinated international efforts, addressing access constraints and conflict de-escalation, further starvation and loss of life are likely in Sudan, South Sudan, and Mali, the hotspots of highest concern in Africa.

5. Weak governance and state capacity
Another critical factor is Africa's governance challenge. The hunger hotspots in Africa are predominantly located in fragile states, where the capacity to provide basic services, protect citizens, or implement food security programmes effectively is limited. In countries such as Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali, where fragility, violence, and instability are prevalent, the delivery of public services, particularly within a coherent, long-term implementation strategy, becomes extremely complex. In these contexts, resources alone are insufficient to stabilise food systems or achieve broader development goals. State fragility translates into poor infrastructure, underdeveloped agricultural markets, limited investments in climate adaptation, and disaster preparedness. Moreover, it hinders effective and sustainable conflict resolution. Thus, the governance factor remains a structural reason why African hunger hotspots persist.

Reference:
"Hunger Hotspots FAO–WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity June to October 2025 outlook," the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), 16 June 2025. https://www.fightfoodcrises.net/sites/default/files/resource/file/HungerHotspots2025_CD5684EN.pdf

About the author
R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris. She is currently a research intern at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at NIAS.

 

Print Bookmark

Previous Africa Comments