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CWA # 1754, 5 July 2025
CW Note
DR Congo-Rwanda: A deal in the US, with problems in the region

  Anu Maria Joseph

In the news
On 27 June, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a peace deal in Washington, ending the ongoing violent conflict in eastern DRC's North and South Kivu provinces. According to the US-led deal, both parties have agreed to a cessation of hostilities and respect the territorial integrity. The deal additionally calls for "disengagement, disarmament and conditional integration" of armed groups in eastern Congo, and the return of refugees and displaced people.

The agreement includes a framework for the US “to expand foreign trade and investment derived from regional critical mineral supply chains,” to “link both countries, in partnership, as appropriate, with the U.S. government and U.S. investors.”

US President Trump stated: "Today, the violence and destruction come to an end, and the region begins a new chapter of hope and opportunities." Trump described the deal as "a glorious triumph."  
DRC's presidential office stated: “Another diplomatic success of President Felix Tshisekedi--certainly the most important in over 30 years."

Issues at large
First, a brief background to the conflict. The conflict in eastern DRC between Rwanda, the DRC and several armed groups has been ongoing for three decades. Rwanda and the DRC accuse each other of supporting the rebels against each other. This decades-long conflict is over territorial control, access to mineral resources and trade networks, regional and political influence and ethnic rivalry. In January, the conflict escalated when the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the regional capitals of North and South Kivu provinces, Goma and Bukavu. The conflict has killed more than seven thousand people and displaced one million since the recent escalation, according to the DRC government.

Second, the path towards the peace deal. Initially, the peace mediations in eastern DRC have been led by Angola. However, Angola's efforts for direct talks between M23 and the DRC in March were unsuccessful when M23 withdrew at the last moment. In March, Qatar successfully hosted ceasefire talks between the DRC's President Tshisekedi and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame. However, the agreed ceasefire remained redundant as M23 was not involved in the discussions, the ceasefire conditions were unclear, and M23 had less incentive to withdraw from Goma and Bukavu. In April, Qatar mediated a truce between M23 and the DRC after direct talks in Doha. Qatari-led truce laid the foundations for peace mediations before the US took the lead.

Third, the role of the US. In March, DRC proposed a critical mineral deal with the US in return for security assistance to combat rebellion in eastern DRC. Although historically the US has been hesitant to provide any military assistance to the DRC over human rights allegations, DRC being the largest supplier of cobalt and a major producer of lithium, tantalum and uranium, the US was convinced. And for Congo, the deal will diversify its mineral sectors away from Chinese domination. The US-led mediations began when the US envoy to Africa, Massad Boulos, visited Rwanda and the DRC in April, and brought the warring parties to sign the Declaration of Principles on mutual respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, national unity and peaceful settlement of disputes. 
 
In perspective
The deal is on, but peace appears to be absent. The fundamental issues behind the decades-long conflict in eastern DRC are colonial-era border issues, unresolved ethnic tensions and the drawbacks of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. None of the above issues were discussed during the peace talks. 

DRC and Rwanda are not the only actors in the conflict. The peace talks were not inclusive of hundreds of armed groups present in the region, especially M23. Other stakeholders, including the neighbouring countries of Uganda and Burundi, were left aside. Disengagement of Hundreds of armed groups, as mentioned in the deal, would be a challenging task for the Rwandan and DRC authorities. On the day the deal was signed, CODECO militia killed ten people in an attack on a displaced persons camp. These groups have been assimilated into society, making it almost impossible to maintain the commitment from the armed groups and their subsequent demobilisation. 

Trump is celebrating the deal a little early. The Eastern DRC has a history of multiple failed peace agreements, attributed to multiple issues including lack of commitment, inclusiveness, conflicting demands, territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and armed rebellion. The US-led peace agreement focuses on the economic aspects of the conflict. The deal would potentially pressure DRC and Rwanda to resolve the disputes over the control of mineral towns in the region. While emphasis was given to DRC-Rwanda disputes, the deal undermined the multidimensional conflicts in the region. Considering the eastern DRC's record of failed ceasefires, peace efforts and peace agreements, the US deal is unlikely to bring peace in the region. 
 
Meanwhile, the US entry into the region is likely to change the regional dynamics. The perspective is divided. For some, US entry is expected to bring stability and end the dominance of Chinese companies. Besides, it would be a new entry point for the West to change the anti-West sentiments and counter the growing Russian and Chinese presence in the region. But, for many, US involvement has brought more fear that American peace would be forced upon them, similar to Iran and Afghanistan. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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