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CWA # 1879, 18 December 2025
CW Column: The Conflicts in Africa
RSF advances in Kordofan and Khartoum and a coup attempt in Benin

  Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
1. Sudan
On 18 December, Al Jazeera reported that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked a key power plant in Khartoum. 
 
On 17 December, Al Jazeera reported that at least 104 civilians had been killed in an RSF-SAF drone fight in Sudan's Kordofan region.

On 13 December, six Bangladeshi UN peacekeepers were killed in an RSF attack in Kaduhli, South Kordofan, in a drone attack. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attack and noted that the attack on peacekeepers "may constitute war crimes under international law." 

2. Benin
On 7 December, Benin's President Patrice Talon stated that the country's armed forces thwarted a coup attempt. Talon stated: "This treachery will not go unpunished." 
The statement came after a section of soldiers claimed on television that they removed Talon from power. 

The coup was led by Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri, who cited “continuing deterioration of the security situation in northern Benin" and "the ignorance and neglect of the situation of our brothers in arms who have fallen at the front” due to worsening jihadist violence as the reasons. 

The ECOWAS and the AU condemned the coup attempt. The AU chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Yousouf, stated: “The African Union stands ready, in coordination with regional and international partners, to accompany the Government and People of Benin toward the full restoration of constitutional normalcy and the strengthening of democratic institutions.”

On 8 December, Nigeria deployed fighter jets and ground troops in Benin to help foil the coup attempt. the same day, ECOWAS also deployed a standby force to Benin. 

What are the issues?
1. Sudan: Escalation of war and another failed peace attempt
Attacks on the capital Khartoum point to a new escalation in Sudan's civil war, which started in April 2023. It comes after the RSF successfully captured the city of el-Fasher in North Darfur, the last standing city in the Darfur region under the SAF, in October. The fall of el Fasher not only consolidated the RSF's parallel government in Sudan's west but also paved advances into Khartoum. Since mid-November, the RSF has been carrying out offensives in the cities in South Kordofan and expanding its control towards the eastern states. 

In November, the civil war in Sudan also saw a resumption of peace efforts after almost a year of multiple failed attempts. The US, along with Egypt and the UAE, called for a comprehensive ceasefire. The RSF had agreed to a humanitarian ceasefire, but the violence continued. The SAF responded to the US ceasefire proposal that, as long as the UAE is involved in the mediation, the deal would be "biased" and unacceptable. The UAE is being accused by the SAF of supporting the RSF with weapons. 

2. Benin: Increasing political tensions and Africa's expanding coup belt 
Talon's administration has been internationally credited for reviving the economy. The World Bank estimated 7.5 per cent economic growth. However, political tensions have been increasing around election issues and attacks by armed groups from neighbouring Nigeria and Burkina Faso. The main opposition party under former President Boni Yayi has been barred from running for the upcoming elections. According to the report by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project in the US, Benin's regime has turned into an electoral autocracy since 2019. Meanwhile, the coup plotters cited jihadist attacks spreading into the country from Nigeria and Burkina Faso. According to the ACLED data, al-Qaida-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has begun advancing in the northern parts of the country. 

Unlike several other West African countries, Benin has no record of recent coups since 1975. However, this year the country witnessed three coup attempts. Since 2020, West Africa has seen seven successful coups, becoming the global epicentre of coups; most recently in Guinea-Bissau. ECOWAS has been criticised for its ineffectiveness in thwarting previous coups in the region. Coup governments responded to a military intervention threat by the group following the coup in Niger in 2023 by forming the Sahel (military) Alliance with all military governments.  

What does it mean?
In Sudan, the latest escalation has ended the hopes of a successful ceasefire. The RSF's successful expansion also implies that the fighting is likely to once again concentrate in the capital, Khartoum. Although recent RSF advancements point to a weakened SAF, considering continued weapon supply to both factions, RSF's complete victory over the SAF is unlikely. It implies that the civil war will prolong with more violence and humanitarian costs.

In Benin, the coup attempt was not unexpected. Politically unstable countries in West Africa have been prone to coups following the takeover in Guinea-Bissau. The coup in Guinea-Bissau projected a trend of powerful militaries adopting similar tactics and methods from neighbouring coup governments. A timely intervention by the ECOWAS and Nigeria has thwarted the coup attempt in Benin. Regional readiness in responding to coup attempts implies a positive development in West Africa after multiple failed efforts to reverse coups. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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