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CWA # 1937, 15 January 2026
CW Note
Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trump’s intervention

  Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
On 13 January, Reuters reported that the US delivered critical military supplies to Nigeria to support its fight against Islamic State militants. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) stated that the delivery will support "Nigeria's ongoing operations and emphasises our shared security partnership."

On 13 January, the Nigerian government told the BBC that more than 200 Bandits were killed in central Nigeria in an ongoing operation.

On 9 January, US President Donald Trump said that he could order more strikes on Nigeria if Christians continue to be killed. He said: "I'd love to make it a one-time strike. But if they continue to kill Christians it will be a many-time strike." Meanwhile, Nigeria's spokesperson to the foreign ministry responded to BBC: We will continue to engage constructively and work with partners, including the United States, on the basis of mutual respect, international law, and Nigeria's sovereignty. Nigeria remains committed to protecting all citizens, Christians and Muslims alike, without discrimination."

What are the issues?
Nigeria: Intensification of domestic military operations, deepening Nigeria-US security cooperation and sovereignty sensitivities
Nigeria's peripheral regions, particularly in the north-western areas, have long faced security challenges due to a weak state presence. Banditry in these states, especially Niger, has continued despite renewed efforts by the Nigerian government to address the issue. 30 people were killed, and several were abducted in Kasuwan Daji market in Niger state on 6 January. In Kano state, thousands fled amidst fear of being killed by bandits this week. Spreading banditry also came after the US carried out an IS-targeted attack on Sokoto state, which prompted armed groups to flee and spread to other states.

Meanwhile, AFRICOM's assistance to Nigeria is part of a shared security partnership that highlights Nigeria's importance in US counterterrorism efforts in West Africa. It also reflects Nigeria's strategic and tactical military reliance on the US to counter jihadists/insurgents/bandit attacks across the country. However, the long-term capacity of this short-term assistance is uncertain. Besides, Trump has linked US military attacks as a response to the killing of Christians in the country, despite Nigerian President Bola Tinubu clarifying that the targets are not exclusively Christians. 

Trump's statements and stance suggesting further possible US strikes highlight the increasing sovereignty concerns in Abuja. Trump's religious framing, threats of unilateral actions and Nigeria's incapacity and dependence on US security assistance have increased fears of creating a perception of external leverage over the country's internal security issues. 

What does it mean?
The intensified domestic response to the security issues in Nigeria marks a positive development. However, these developments appear to be substantially dependent on the US support. The US-Nigeria security cooperation alone is unlikely to address the multifactor security crisis in Nigeria. A long-term security will depend on local response, presence of state forces and technical and military capacity to respond on time. Meanwhile, the continued scale of banditry suggests the challenge of durable security improvements, particularly in areas with weak governance and local grievances. Besides, Trump’s stance and increasing sovereignty concerns imply that Nigeria needs to balance security cooperation and external control over domestic security policies. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is an independent scholar from Kerala.

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