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CWA # 1943, 23 January 2026
Conflict Weekly Note
Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau 

  Anu Maria Joseph

The note below was first published as part of NIAS-IPRI Conflict Weekly. See, "Trump’s “Board of Peace” in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland," Conflict Weekly #316, 23 January 2026, Vol 7, No. 3
 

What happened this week?
1. Guinea-Bissau
On 22 January, the military authorities in Guinea-Bissau announced the presidential and legislative elections for 6 December. Announcing the elections, transitional President Horta N'Tam signed a decree on 21 January. The decree read: “All the conditions for organising free, fair and transparent elections have been met."

2. Nigeria
On 21 January, Reuters reported that 168 worshippers were kidnapped from three churches this week in the northern Kaduna state. Initially, the Nigerian police denied the claims; however, later the police spokesperson said that the earlier statement was "not a denial of the incident but a measured response pending confirmation of details from the field, including the identities and number of those affected." Amnesty International criticised the Nigerian government for denying the kidnapping and added: "Authorities must also take immediate and concrete measures to prevent rampant abductions that are gradually becoming the norm in Nigeria."

On the same day, separately, Reuters reported that the Nigerian forces rescued previously taken 62 hostages and killed two militants in multiple operations across Kebbi and Zamfara states.

What are the issues?
1. Guinea-Bissau: The controversial coup, ECOWAS' concern and Africa's coup belt
Guinea-Bissau's military staged the coup on 26 November after suspending the elections. They said the move was to block a plot by unnamed politicians who have "the support of a well known drug baron" to destabilise the country. It was the fourth military takeover since the country gained independence. However, the coup turned controversial when the opposition, several civil society groups and political leaders from neighbouring countries alleged that Emabalo orchestrated the coup to block the announcement of the opposition's election victory. 

Meanwhile, ECOWAS has been pressuring the transitional government to organise elections within a short transitional timeframe. The bloc suspended the country from decision-making bodies and threatened sanctions. It also rejected a one-year transitional timeline suggested by the military. ECOWAS's strong stance comes in the wake of an increasing number of coups and strengthening military governments in West Africa. 

Since 2020, West Africa has witnessed five military coups. Mali in August 2020; Burkina Faso in January 2022 and September 2022; Niger in July 2023; Guinea in September 2022; and Gabon in August 2023. Guinea-Bissau was the sixth one. In January 2024, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso left ECOWAS and formed the Alliance of Sahel States. The bloc recently formed a military force and is encouraging other military-run governments in the region to join the bloc. With the expansion of AES, ECOWAS and the AU fear the strengthening of military governments and a potential backsliding of democracy in the region.

2. Nigeria: The new wave of kidnapping and challenged efforts
The number of kidnapping incidents increased in Nigeria since November, especially in the states of Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno, Niger and Kebbi. This escalation, in particular, came after the security issues in Nigeria started gaining international attention when US President Trump threatened military action in Nigeria for an alleged "Christian genocide." 

In December 2025, the US carried out airstrikes in collaboration with the Nigerian government in Sokoto state. The attack prompted the armed men/bandits in Sokoto state to flee to neighbouring Niger, Kaduna and Zamfara states. The previous week, the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) announced continued support to Nigeria in its fight against insurgency. 

Kidnappings and killings have continued on a larger scale despite the US assistance and renewed counterinsurgency efforts by the Nigerian security forces. 30 people were killed, and several were abducted in Kasuwan Daji market in Niger state on 6 January. In Kano state, thousands fled amidst fear of being killed by bandits the previous week. Besides, Trump has linked US military attacks as a response to the killing of Christians in the country, despite Nigerian President Bola Tinubu clarifying that the targets are not exclusively Christians. Trump's religious framing, threats of unilateral actions and Nigeria's incapacity and dependence on US security assistance have increased fears of creating a perception of external leverage over the country's internal security issues.

What does it mean?
In Guinea-Bissau, the election announcement is a positive development following the coup, indicating a return to constitutional democratic rule. According to the transitional charter, the transitional leader and key officials are barred from running in the elections. However, given the trend of coup leaders extending the transition and consolidating their power through unconstitutional means in West African countries, it's less likely that Guinea-Bissau will be an exception. ECOWAS' pressure has played a crucial role in restoring constitutional order quickly. However, it's uncertain whether the pressure will transform into restoration of the constitutional order amidst the strengthening military-run governments in West Africa.

In Nigeria, long-term security will depend on the local response, the presence of state forces and the technical and military capacity to enable a timely response. However, the increasing scale of banditry indicates the challenges in achieving lasting security gains despite US assistance, especially in the regions marked by weak governance and unresolved local grievances. Besides, Trump’s stance and increasing sovereignty concerns imply that Nigeria needs to balance security cooperation against external control over domestic security policies.

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