Conflicts in Africa

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CWA # 2119, 29 May 2026

CW Column

Conflicts in Africa

Anu Maria Joseph
Anu Maria Joseph is currently a Non-Resident Fellow, Subhas Chandra Bose International Relations (SCB-IR) Chair, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

What happened this week?
1. DR Congo
On 27 May, the World Health Organization (WHO) Chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus described Ituri province in DR Congo as a centre of a “catastrophic collision of disease and conflict.”

On 18 May, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared an Ebola outbreak in DR Congo as a public health emergency of international concern. So far, there have been a total of 1000 suspected cases and 220 reported deaths; 51 cases have been confirmed in Congo's Ituri province. The WHO has also warned of a "much larger outbreak," with the risk of local and regional spread. Two cases were reported in Uganda. Rwanda and Uganda have closed their borders.

On 20 May, the WHO said it would take another nine months before a vaccine against Ebola is ready.

2. Senegal
On 23 May, Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye sacked Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and dissolved the government following months of tensions between the two leaders. Later, on 26 May, the lawmakers voted Sonko as the Speaker of the parliament, a role that could challenge President Faye’s office.

3. Nigeria
On 20 May, Al Jazeera reported that the US military's Africa Command (AFRICOM) claimed to have killed 175 IS-linked fighters in a series of joint strikes in Nigeria's northeastern regions during recent days.

On 19 May, the Nigerian Defence Headquarters stated that a joint operation with AFICOM destroyed checkpoints, weapons caches, logistic hubs, military equipment, and financing networks of ISWAP. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said that ISWAP's second-in-command, Abu Bilal al-Minuki, has been killed. Tinubu thanked US President Trump for his "leadership and unwavering support."

Meanwhile, on 18 May, according to the BBC, gunmen kidnapped more than 50 children from Borno state. No group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping.

What are the issues?
1. DR Congo: Uncertain magnitude of Ebola endemic in conflict-hit eastern DRC
Ebola, a disease that spreads through bats, was first discovered in 1976 in DR Congo. It spreads via direct contact with bodily fluids. Since its discovery, the disease has been endemic in the country, with 16 previous outbreaks. The current outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo variant of the virus. It was responsible for the 2012 outbreak that killed a third of those infected.

The majority of the cases have been confirmed in Ituri province in eastern DRC. Cases have also been identified in Goma, the rebel-controlled city in North Kivu. Initial symptoms of the virus are similar to those of malaria and typhoid, which are common in DR Congo, causing a delayed diagnosis of the spread. According to the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the outbreak is "larger than currently ascertained" and that its "true magnitude remains uncertain." Currently, there are no approved vaccines for the disease. However, the vaccines for the Zaire Ebola Virus and the AstraZeneca vaccine used for COVID-19 are being discussed in terms of preventing the spread.

Meanwhile, the violence in conflict-affected regions such as Ituri and Kivu has collapsed hospitals and public health facilities. The majority of the population lives in unsanitary conditions amidst frequent internal displacement. According to the UN, over 13 million people have been internally displaced in eastern DRC due to the conflict. A lack of information and access to health systems has increased the likelihood of a rapid spread.

There has been a swift national, regional and international response against the spread of Ebola. Rwanda has closed its borders to prevent the spread. The WHO has released USD four million to combat the outbreak. The M23 rebels have created an Ebola response team. However, neither the rebels nor the government has confirmed to work together. Caitlin Brady, the country director for the Danish Refugee Council, has been informed by the rebels that they are conducting contact tracing of the infected, implying that the capacity to respond has remained.

2. Senegal: The break of the Faye-Sonko tie-up over disagreement on the handling of the economic crisis
Tensions have been growing between President Faye and Prime Minister Sonko for months over the disagreement on the handling of the economic crisis. The IMF froze a USD 1.8 billion lending scheme following a misreported debt by the previous government. It pushed the debt level to 132 per cent of the country’s economic output. Faye criticised Sonko’s “excessive personalisation” within the party. Sonko accuses the resident of a “failure of leadership” for not supporting him.

During the 2024 presidential election, Faye contested in place of Sonko, the popular leader who was barred from running due to a defamation conviction, under the slogan “Diomaye is Sonko, Sonko is Diomaye.” The 2024 elections received much criticism when the previous government banned the major opposition party, Patriots of Senegal (PATSEF), from running. Faye, although a member of PATSEF, ran independently with the support of Sonko’s popularity. The tie-up between the two leaders unseated then-President Macky Sall. It was a democratic and extraordinary victory in Senegal’s political history, given that they were under arrest ten days before the election. However, the current unusual political situation has brought uncertainty.

3. Nigeria: Worsening security issues and deepening US military involvement
Since November 2025, there has been an increase in Boko Haram and Islamic State-linked attacks in Nigeria, with more than 15 attacks recorded in 2026. In February, an IS-linked group, Lakurawa, killed 162 people in the state of Kwara. In March, ISAWP and Boko Haram started launching attacks against military bases in Borno and Yobe states. On 11 March, 65 Nigerian soldiers were killed by ISWAP. While in 2025 the majority of the attacks were concentrated in the states of Borno, Zamfara and Kaduna, in 2026 they spread to Kwara, Niger and Katsina states.

Meanwhile, the US involvement in Nigeria's security affairs has increased recently. In November 2025, Nigeria came under US pressure when Trump accused the Nigerian government of failing to protect Christians from the IS-linked group's attacks in the northwest. The US-Nigeria military cooperation began with the US military strikes against IS-linked groups in Nigeria's Sokoto state in December 2025, in collaboration with the Nigerian government. In February, 100 US military troops arrived in Maiduguri to provide intelligence, military equipment and technical and operational coordination. However, the latest strikes imply US involvement in combat operations. While the Nigerian government welcomes US support, there is growing domestic concern about external influence on Nigeria's internal security decisions and US economic and geopolitical interests in the region.

What does it mean?
In DR Congo, the WHO declared a health emergency in a span of three days, highlighting swift action to avoid a regional and international spread. However, unlike the previous ones, the rapid increase in the number of cases in the current outbreak has raised the concern of a missed diagnosis and the uncertain magnitude of the spread. Besides, the outbreak is concentrated in the inaccessible region affected by a complex conflict, which is likely to complicate surveillance, tracing and healthcare. The collapsed state health system, misinformation and lack of trust among the conflict-hit population risk the virus spreading across eastern DRC and beyond the borders. Controlling the spread of the disease in conflict-hit regions requires coordination between rebels, the government and international actors to allow access for health care systems.

Senegal, a country that symbolizes democracy in West Africa, faces an unusual political situation. President Faye’s decision to dismiss Sonko has political risk. Sonko holds broad popular support. His removal may lead to a split with the PASTEF party. It also risks the return of protests, which the country witnessed during the Macky Sall regime. The new political struggle in Senegal, combined with the economic crisis, has pushed the country into an uncertain and complicated political trajectory.

In Nigeria, the latest US-Nigeria joint airstrikes and the death of the IS leader highlight a significant high-profile counterterrorism success against IS following the recent increase in attacks. However, it has also increased the likelihood of groups spreading to other states with limited security presence. ISWAP and Boko Haram operate through local alliances and infiltration. Even if the leaders are eliminated, structural drivers of the insurgency, including poverty, weak governance, corruption and ungoverned territory, remain intact. Besides, the expanding geographical spread of the ISWAP and Boko Haram attacks suggests the group’s improved operational coordination. The ISWAP’s attack on military bases implies the group’s increasing intelligence capacity and access to weapons. While debates on US economic and geopolitical interests in the region remain, a successful counterterrorism effort will depend on a long-term outcome.

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