The Ebola and the DR Congo:

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CWA # 2123, 29 May 2026

CW Note

The Ebola and the DR Congo:

Akshath Kaimal
Akshath Kaimal is a Research Associate at NIAS and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

In the news
The outbreak
On 15 May, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared the 17th outbreak of Ebola, after eight samples tested positive for the Bundibugyo strain in Ituri province. The same day, Uganda’s Health Ministry confirmed one death from the disease in Kampala.

On 17 May, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), while a second case was confirmed in Uganda. The next day, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) also declared a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security.

On 21 May, the virus continued spreading within the DRC, with the M23-held South Kivu province confirming its first case a day after the rebels downplayed concerns related to its spread.

On 22 May, protesters attacked a hospital in Rwampara and set an isolation tent on fire when they were prevented from removing the bodies of their families for burial. Attacks on healthcare centers have escalated across Ituri province since then.

As of 27 May, there have been 1,077 suspected cases and 246 deaths from the disease in the DRC, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Another seven cases and one death have been recorded in Uganda.

International response
Since 15 May, countries around the world have implemented travel restrictions and put out advisories warning against travel to the DRC and Uganda. On 18 May, Rwanda shut its border with the DRC. On 19 May, the United States mobilised USD 23 million in emergency funding for disease surveillance, laboratory capacity and clinical case management.

On 22 May, the European Union and UNICEF officially launched a joint 100-tonne “Humanitarian Air Bridge”, delivering critical survival gear and protective equipment. On the same day, the upcoming India-Africa Forum Summit, which had been scheduled in New Delhi from 28-31 May, was indefinitely postponed. Also on 22 May, scientists at Oxford University said they were developing a vaccine that would be ready for clinical trials in two to three months. This came the same day the WHO raised the DRC’s public health risk from “high” to “very high”.

On 25 May, the WHO and Africa CDC launched a six-month, USD 319 million Ebola response strategy covering all 55 African Union member states.

Issues at large
1. The multiple Ebola outbreaks in the DRC
The DRC has been the epicentre of Ebola since 1976, with the current 2026 outbreak marking its 17th encounter. The historical toll is staggering: the 2018-2020 Kivu outbreak was the second-largest in history, resulting in 3,470 cases, 2,280 deaths, and a 65 per cent fatality rate. That crisis required the CDC Foundation to mobilise up to USD 20 million in philanthropic funding just for basic logistics. While the international community successfully deployed the Ervebo vaccine to over 300,000 people to end the Zaire strain epidemic, the current outbreak is caused by the rare Bundibugyo strain, for which no approved vaccine exists. Economically, these recurring crises are devastating, paralysing local trade and agriculture while forcing the DRC to divert scarce resources from long-term development into emergency containment, a strain heavily compounded by current border closures with Uganda and Rwanda.

2. The DRC’s fragile healthcare system and external reliance
The DRC remains one of the least developed countries in the world, heavily burdened by protracted conflicts, extreme poverty and an ongoing, multidimensional humanitarian crisis. Over 26 million people face food insecurity, 4.1 million children are suffering from acute malnutrition, and over 1.5 million have lost access to all healthcare facilities. The DRC’s ability to respond to these outbreaks is crippled by a chronically underfunded healthcare system. Out of a population of 113 million, nearly 15 million people require humanitarian assistance as of 2026. This system relies heavily on a highly concentrated foreign donor landscape consisting of the United States, the European Commission and Germany. However, because external aid props up public health, the infrastructure is deeply vulnerable to shifting foreign policy. A stark example was DRC’s 2025 deal with the US, which represented a 30 per cent cut in annual health assistance compared to 2024. This leaves the country structurally exposed, with particular concern mounting around the rapid viral spread in rebel-held eastern and northeastern provinces, where health services are scarce and localised conflict actively blocks emergency medical interventions.

3. Role of Geography and Climate Change in the Ebola spread
Geography plays a dual role in the DRC: dense forests complicate medical logistics, while high-mobility mining and trade corridors facilitate rapid transmission. Centred in Ituri Province, the 2026 outbreak easily breached geographic containment across the highly porous Ugandan border. This ecological vulnerability spans the broader Congo Basin, where the DRC, Central African Republic, and Republic of Congo share interconnected tropical rainforests that serve as massive reservoirs for zoonotic pathogens. Across Central Africa, aggressive deforestation and shifting rainfall patterns are rapidly dismantling the natural boundaries between human settlements and wildlife. As severe climate stress forces reservoir species, like fruit bats, to migrate across national borders in search of food, the risk of regional cross-border spillovers increases exponentially.

4. Weak early warning systems
Africa’s rich biodiversity and rapid urbanization accelerate zoonotic spillovers, making the continent highly prone to epidemics. However, responses remain reactive and neglect preventative preparedness and investment in early warning systems. Local and international systems wait for crises to explode rather than funding permanent infrastructure. Within the massive USD 1.4 billion UN appeal, for example, the health sector has only seen about USD 32.6 million in earmarked funding, leaving hospitals severely underequipped to stop a virus from circulating undetected. The WHO said that the outbreak might have started well before the first case was detected, exemplifying severe gaps in local and international early warning systems. Health infrastructure is also destroyed by protracted conflict, further burdening a strained system.

In perspective
First, an immediate end to the outbreak is unlikely. While the fatality rate of the Bundibugyo strain is far less than the Zaire strain, there is no vaccine or specific treatment to stem the current outbreak. With the WHO saying a vaccine could take up to nine months, the outbreak is likely to continue expanding. Fragile health systems in the DRC and neighbouring countries will struggle to curb the spread due to the lack of widespread testing and diagnostic facilities. But even if the outbreaks end soon, weak early warning systems will continue to keep the DRC exposed to outbreaks.

Second, the humanitarian situation is likely to worsen. Even if a vaccine is developed and the outbreak is stemmed, the aftereffects of this crisis will likely be felt for months or even years to come. The DRC is already struggling with an underfunded healthcare system, worsened by protracted conflicts and climate change. The latest outbreak will push more people into poverty, make the country more dependent on international donors and exacerbate political instability.

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May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Associate at NIAS and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

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