NIAS Area Studies


AFRICA MONITOR

Africa Comment

Photo Source:
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CW Explainer
The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal: 

  Akshath Kaimal
Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

On 01 June, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague ruled in favour of the United Kingdom after Rwanda brought the country to court over the scrapped UK-Rwanda Asylum Partnership Agreement. The deal was struck between the two countries in 2022 and signed in 2023 while a Conservative government was in power in the UK, but was later suspended by the current Labour government in 2024.

In response to the ruling, a UK government spokesperson said that the country had “robustly defended its position, and the tribunal has now ruled in favour of the UK on all grounds.”

A Rwandan government spokesperson said that the country "respects the tribunal's ruling and considers the matter closed", but highlighted the dissenting opinion from one of the judges as representative of how the case is open to “different legal interpretations”.

1. What did the ruling say?
In its final Award, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) rejected the Republic of Rwanda's claims against the United Kingdom. The tribunal ruled by majority to dismiss Rwanda's financial claim for the GBP 50 million Year 2 installment, and voted unanimously to reject the GBP 50 million claim for Year 3 under the 2024 Finance Agreement within the larger UK-Rwanda Asylum Partnership  Agreement. Additionally, the panel unanimously rejected Rwanda's assertions that the UK breached its obligations under Articles 18 and 19 of the Agreement, finding that the UK was not in breach for failing to resettle vulnerable refugees. Ultimately, the tribunal decided that both nations must split the arbitration costs equally and absorb their own respective legal expenses.

2. What was the UK-Rwanda asylum deal?
The UK-Rwanda Asylum Partnership Agreement was a high-profile immigration policy first announced in April 2022 by then-Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson and signed by both countries in 2023. Under the five-year agreement, asylum seekers who arrived in the UK illegally - such as via small boats across the English Channel - would be relocated to Rwanda for processing.  If their asylum claims were successful, they would be granted permanent residency in Rwanda, not the UK. In return for taking in the migrants, the UK government agreed to pay Rwanda an initial GBP 120 million through the Economic Transformation and Integration Fund (ETIF), plus an additional GBP 20,000 to GBP 30,000 per relocated individual to cover temporary accommodation and resettlement costs. 

3. What led to the deal?
The Conservative government's primary goal was to curb illegal entry into the country. Small boat crossings across the English Channel into the UK increased from just 299 in 2018 to 45,774 in 2022. By resettling asylum seekers in the East African country as opposed to providing them a safe haven within the country, the UK aimed to drastically reduce the number of migrants attempting the dangerous Channel crossings. Officials also argued that the threat of deportation to Rwanda would undermine the business model of the human smuggling networks that facilitate the journeys. The policy is also part of a broader push to rein in immigration and asylum numbers, which had been increasing since the 2015 European migrant crisis.

4. Why did the Labour government suspend the deal?
When Keir Starmer became Prime Minister following Labour's general election victory in July 2024, he immediately declared the Rwanda plan "dead and buried" on his first day in office. The Labour government viewed the scheme as an “expensive gimmick". Before its cancellation, the UK had already spent roughly GBP 700 million on the policy, yet only four people - all of whom were volunteers - had actually been relocated to Kigali. Labour deemed this a waste of taxpayer money and pledged to redirect the funds toward delivering vital border security reforms and scaling up removals of those with no legal right to stay. 

5. Why did Rwanda file a case against the UK?
After the UK walked away from the agreement, Rwanda filed an arbitration case against the UK at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague in November 2025. Rwanda sued for over GBP 100 million, claiming the UK had breached the terms of the treaty. Specifically, they demanded two outstanding payments of GBP 50 million each, scheduled for the second and third years of the deal, plus compensation. Rwanda's Justice Minister, Emmanuel Ugirashebuja, argued his country had incurred "significant costs" preparing for the partnership, and complained that the UK didn't give Kigali the courtesy of advance notice, leaving Rwandan leaders to read about the cancellation in the media. 

6. What next for the UK, Rwanda, and the migration issue?
With the arbitration settled, Rwanda is pivoting to other international partnerships, while the UK is shifting its focus to a domestic enforcement strategy. Having scrapped the deportation scheme, London is gambling heavily on its new Border Security Command to dismantle human smuggling networks. However, the underlying maritime crisis continues to swell. Despite the policy pivot, Channel crossings in small boats rose by 13 percent in 2025, reaching 41,472 arrivals - the second-highest annual total on record. As 2026 crossings continue at a relentless pace, the UK faces the reality that curbing irregular migration requires far more than just closing the book on Rwanda.

Print Bookmark

Previous Africa Comments

August 2026 | CWA # 2238

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Subhas Chandra Bose Chair on International Relations, Chanakya University.

Ethiopia's Tigray problem:
July 2026 | CWA # 2206

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader team.

The resurgence of Somali piracy:
July 2026 | CWA # 2182

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Subhas Chandra Bose Chair on International Relations, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

Africa This Week
July 2026 | CWA # 2173

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

Anti-immigrant Protests in South Africa:
June 2026 | CWA # 2152

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

Anti-immigrant violence in South Africa:
June 2026 | CWA # 2130

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal: 
June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is currently a Non-Resident Fellow, Subhas Chandra Bose International Relations (SCB-IR) Chair, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

Conflicts in Africa This Week:
May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Associate at NIAS and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

The Ebola and the DR Congo:
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is currently a Non-Resident Fellow, Subhas Chandra Bose International Relations (SCB-IR) Chair, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

Conflicts in Africa
May 2026 | CWA # 2108

Ada Khan | Ada Khan is an undergraduate at the Department of Political Science, Public Policy, and Media Studies, Mount Carmel College, Bengaluru.

The Africa Forward Summit 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2103

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

Rising violence in the Lake Chad region: 
May 2026 | CWA # 2101

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is currently a Non-Resident Fellow, Subhas Chandra Bose International Relations (SCB-IR) Chair, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

The New Wave of Violence in DR Congo:
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and Interntional Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Escalating Violence in Mali:
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph | Ms Anu Maria Joseph was a NIAS Project Associate and served as Assistant Editor, Conflict Weekly.

Three Years of War in Sudan
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji | Dr S Shaji is an Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)