Ethiopia's Tigray problem:

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CWA # 2238, 13 August 2026

CW Note

Ethiopia's Tigray problem:

Anu Maria Joseph
Anu Maria Joseph is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Subhas Chandra Bose Chair on International Relations, Chanakya University.

In the news
On 1 August, Al Jazeera reported that a new wave of fighting broke out in Ethiopia’s Tigray region between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal forces. The violence comes after the Pretoria Peace Agreement of November 2022 and a four-year lull.

According to Al Jazeera, hundreds of Ethiopians from the northern Tigray region have crossed to Sudan this week, fearing another war.

Al Jazeera quoted the TPLF as saying that the fighting involved heavy artillery and drones between the Ethiopian army and Tigray rebels in the Shererina region, near the Sudanese border. The rebels also blamed the federal government of launching a “large-scale infantry offensive.” There has been no official statement from the federal government.

Issues at large
1. Ethiopia’s continuing Tigray problem
Tigray is one of the 12 federal regions of Ethiopia, divided on ethnic lines. However, demographically Tigrayans constitute only six per cent of the total population. Until 2018, the minority TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for three decades, which fuelled resentment from other ethnic groups, including Oromia, Amhara, and Afar. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed came to power after a popular protest led by the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups that overthrew the TPLF government. After coming to power, the Abiy administration targeted TPLF members, removed them from key portfolios and arrested them on corruption charges. The tensions between the TPLF and Abiy administration increased with the signing of the Eritrea-Ethiopia 2018 peace agreement, which ceded Tigray territory to Eritrea. In between the tensions with the TPLF, Abiy’s centralised reforms to unify Ethiopia led to widespread discontent from ethnic groups. TPLF accused Abiy’s administration of marginalising the Tigray community. The tensions escalated into a full-scale violent conflict which lasted for two years.

2. The longstanding War in Tigray
The War began in 2021 when the TPLF attacked the Northern Command headquarters of the federal forces. It was fought between the federal forces, Amhara Special Forces and allied militias on one side, and the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) on the other. Widespread human rights abuses, unlawful killing, torture, sexual violence, and ethnic cleansing were reported during the war. According to the UN, it killed more than 600,000 people and displaced over 5.1 million people internally. The region also faced a famine during the war, affecting 350,000 people. Several mediation efforts by Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, the African Union and IGAD, and international actors such as the US, EU and the UN failed. Later, a peace deal was signed between the warring sides in November 2022, mediated by the US, Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria.

3. A peace deal and its challenges
Despite the peace deal, the Tigray region remained fragile. The agreement discussed four major developments: disarmament of TPLF and withdrawal of external forces from Tigray, unhindered humanitarian access to Tigray, the restoration of constitutional order and the protection of fundamental human rights. However, these provisions were never fully implemented. Additionally, post-agreement reforms by Abiy’s administration triggered parallel ethnic violence across other regions. The regional ethnic forces of Tigray, Amhara and Oromia violently resisted Abiy’s attempt to integrate all ethnic armed forces into the federal forces. It led to multiple instances of violent conflicts across different ethnic regions between 2022 and 2025. Four years after the peace deal, the promised elections were never conducted in Tigray, and the interim administration was never dissolved, which was later forcefully replaced by the TPLF. Eritrean forces allegedly continue to occupy northern regions of Tigray and exacerbate tensions. The HRW in June 2024 reported ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans after the peace agreement. Only half of the 2.1 million IDPs have returned after the war. According to a WFP report in January this year, 80 per cent of the Tigray population requires humanitarian support. Four years after the peace deal, the federal administration restricts Tigray from access to humanitarian aid, health care, internet and communications.

4. Recent tensions and preparation for another war
TPLF hardliners, instead of signing the 2022 peace deal, had always wanted to continue after a short ceasefire to regroup. The extremist elements in Fano groups of Amhara, which supported the federal forces in the war, also wanted to continue the war. Later, the Fano militia of Amhara became an adversary to the government when the latter ceded the disputed territories to Tigray under the peace agreement. TPLF began the preparations for another war early this year. The war became imminent when it forcefully dismantled the regional interim administration and set up its own illegal administration. The TPLF hardliners have allegedly aligned with Eritrea while the other Tigray faction is siding with the federal administration. According to Human Rights Watch’s report on 9 July, the TPLF has been forcefully recruiting civilians and preparing for another war. The tensions escalated during the recent general election, in which Tigray was excluded, which the federal government referred to as “unfavourable conditions.”

In perspective
First, the peace deal never ended the conflict. The November 2022 peace deal was a major achievement towards peace in Tigray. However, slow and incomplete implementation of the provisions has led the region to the brink of another war. The TPLF hardliners’ disagreement with the federal government and internal divisions have led to a remilitarisation in the region. The group aims for an absolute territorial claim over the region. The developments imply the war is imminent.

Second, the recent developments have been shaping another war. The TPLF has been preparing for the war. The developments during the past six months, including TPLF’s forced recruitment, weapons proliferation, and restoration of the pre-war council in April, were ignored by regional and international actors, especially the assigned monitors and observers of the peace agreement. The ignorance and inaction have brought Ethiopia to the brink of another war.

Third, the near future increasingly points to another full-scale war. The peace deal has been compromised, implementation and monitoring mechanisms have failed, TPLF is adamant about starting another war, and the federal government’s response to the recent wave of violence implies another full-scale war in Tigray immediately. A renewed war, involving several internal and external actors, will be catastrophic, prolonged and deadly. It will also have overarching implications for the region already ravaged by another civil war in the neighbouring Sudan.

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August 2026 | CWA # 2238

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Subhas Chandra Bose Chair on International Relations, Chanakya University.

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