Femy Francis

On 19 July, China’s Premier Li Qiang launched the construction of a Medog Hydropower Station on the Tibetan Plateau, aimed to be the world’s largest hydroelectric facility. The project is located in the lower regions of Yarlung Tsangpo River, the location of the same have raised concerns regarding the water supply of lower riparian countries, and the ecological impact on the downstream countries India and Bangladesh. The ceremony was held in the Nyingchi region of Tibet. The Yarlung Tsangpo River becomes the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet, and it flows to India’s Arunachal Pradesh. The initiative was first announced under China’s 2020 five-year plan. The dam will create 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, which will be three times more than the Gorges Dam. Additional concerns include the impact on water and food security for India and Bangladesh, as well as the potential weaponization of water by China, which could be used to cause floods or induce droughts. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs refuted the concerns and said: “Rather, the project could help in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts, and support climate change adaptation in downstream regions.” This has also encouraged India to speed up the building of its hydropower projects in the Brahmaputra, Arunachal Pradesh.

Where is Yarlung Tsnagpo? What is its basin?
It is imperative to understand that the river basin consists of Yarlung Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra-Jamuna, meaning the boundaries of the above rivers change ownership based on the region in which they flow. This brings three countries together in the same river basin: China via Tibet, India, and Bangladesh all hold stakes in the river that flows. The river originates from the Angsai Glacier, coming from the Himalayan Lake Manasarovar and Mount Kailash. Currently, the Chinese side of the river is facing severe desertification due to climate change and high altitude. The geography of the Yarlung Tsangpo River takes a sharp U-turn, “Great Bend,” it enters India through Arunachal Pradesh, and is called Siang. When it reaches Assam through tributaries of Dihang and Lohit, it becomes the Brahmaputra. The river further going down merges with the Jamuna and enters the river Padma of Bangladesh. Therefore, making a transboundary river basin. 

What are China’s objectives in building the dam? 
China’s second-longest river “Yellow River,” faces water scarcity due to demographic pressure and unsustainable use of the basin. The Yellow River is responsible for 65 per cent of hydroelectric energy generation in China. The water utilization of the Yellow River is at 80 per cent, double the recommended usage of 40 per cent. There is also desertification in the headwaters of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin due to topography and climate change. To replenish the basins, the Chairman of the Beijing Shuotian Consultancy & Development Co., Guo Kai, suggested diverting some water from the Brahmaputra, noting that there is “plenty of water, and it won't make any difference to India.” This view was taken forward by several scholars like Li Ling in “Tibet’s Water Will Save China,” where they called to exploit of the resources in the Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, building the infrastructure also establishes Chinese territory close to the contested regions. 

What are the concerns raised by India and Bangladesh?  
India’s Ministry of External Affairs condemned China’s plan to build the dam in January 2025. Stating that this gives an unfair advantage to the higher riparian country, China, and that it's unfair in light that there are no water-sharing pacts signed with the lower riparian countries. These concerns were bolstered by China's decision to halt the sharing of Brahmaputra water data with India following the 2020 Doklam standoff. Arunachal Pradesh’s Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned that the proposed dam is a potential “water bomb.” Additionally, the region where the Yarlung Tsangpo River flows is a seismic zone, making it vulnerable to earthquakes. Making it not only challenging for builders to build, but also the construction is reckoned to have an ecological impact in the region. This can lead to reduced sediment flow to the downstream waters, which will affect agriculture. There also lacks formal river sharing treaties between the three countries, while there have been several Expert-Level Mechanism (ELM) meetings held to discuss emergency management and data sharing of possible floods. 

India’s concerns are well-founded when questioning the repercussions of building this dam. But it is important to note that the Brahmaputra River, whose flow is of concern, does not rely entirely on the Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow. As noted above the Tibet’s side of the river is already facing water scarcity. Brahmaputra is largely fed by the seasonal rainfall that happens annually in the Northeastern Region of India. 

What are the environmental and political concerns?
The Yarlung Tsangpo Dam has a larger political and territorial significance. As the building of the dam will also be a territorial demarcation in the region, which is contested. This means building the dam will bring Chinese infrastructure to the Tibetan region, very close to the Himalayas and Arunachal Pradesh. The Indian state is also claimed by China as “South Tibet.” Bringing China closer to the contested territory and India. India, perceiving this threat, plans to build 150 dams in Arunachal Pradesh and wants to expedite the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), which faces local protest. China will continue to build, pushing India to speed up its defense. Bangladesh, the third party in the basin, has been quiet on the same. The interim government of Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus, after ousting Sheikh Hasina, has been pivoting to China, inviting them to work on the Teesta River project. The silence, therefore, speaks volumes as to where Bangladesh stands. 

References

“China’s Li Qiang announces launch of Tibet mega dam project that has worried India,” SCMP, 19 July 2025
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3318875/chinas-li-qiang-announces-launch-tibet-mega-dam-project-has-worried-india

“Dam gamble on Siang,” Times of India, 27 July 2025
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/dam-gamble-on-siang-as-china-moves-ahead-with-its-mega-project-will-indias-response-face-local-resistance/articleshow/122931898.cms

“The Water Wars Myth: India, China and the Brahmaputra,” United States Institute of Peace, 08 December 2022
https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/water-wars-myth-india-china-and-brahmaputra

“China is building the world’s biggest hydropower dam. Why is India worried?” SMCP, 23 July 2025
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3319175/china-building-worlds-biggest-hydropower-dam-why-india-worried

“China starts building world’s biggest hydropower dam,” The Guardian, 21 July 2025
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/21/china-starts-building-world-biggest-hydropower-dam-yarlung-tsangpo-river-tibet

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