Femy Francis

What happened? 
On 15 November, China’s Embassy in Japan warned its citizens against travelling to Japan, citing that “Recently, Japanese leaders have made blatantly provocative remarks regarding Taiwan, severely damaging the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges.” This poses significant risks to the safety of Chinese citizens in Japan. 

On 7 November, the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made statements in support of Taiwan and said: “If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation,” for Japan. This statement was vehemently opposed in Chinese social media and ministries, with China’s Ministry of External Affairs calling it “egregious.” 

On 8 November, remarks by China’s Consul General in Japan, Xue Jian, especially escalated the issue when he said: “the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off.” Takaichi refused to retract her statements, stating that they are consistent with the government's traditional position. China’s Foreign Minister warned Japan to avoid meddling in their cross-strait affairs and summoned the Japanese ambassador to China. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong stated that the remarks were dangerous, and a travel warning for Chinese citizens to Japan was soon issued. 

What is the background? 
First, Japan and Taiwan relations. The first Sino-Japanese War from 1894-1895 ended with the Treaty of Shimonoseki, where China recognised the independence of Korea and ceded Taiwan. The second, the Sino-Japanese War 1937-1945, ended with Japan returning Taiwan to China after it lost in World War II. Japan is Taiwan’s third largest partner, and Taiwan is Japan’s fourth largest partner, with USD 72 billion in trade in 2024. Additionally, Taiwan has always been a geostrategic location for Japan due to its proximity to the Ryukyu Islands. Taiwan’s de facto Embassy in Japan 2024 survey found that 77 per cent of Japanese citizens felt that they are closer to Taiwan, and 73 per cent believed that Taiwan has good relations with Japan.

Second, Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi on China and Taiwan. During her time as the Economic Security Minister, she heavily criticised the economic dependency on China and advocated for stringent FDIs to curb Chinese influence. Takaichi also views Taiwan as a key security partner, calling it the “forward outpost” for Japan’s security. Her approach is different from her predecessors, who avoided or stressed little on the Taiwan security issue. 

Third, a brief note on “survival-threatening situation” that PM Takaichi referred to citing the 2015 Security Law. She said: “A Chinese military attack on Taiwan might constitute a survival-threatening situation.” The law, in rare circumstances, allows Japan to use collective self-defence even if they are not directly attacked. It is noted that if a country close to Japan comes under attack and this also poses a threat to Japan, Japan’s Self-Defence Forces may be legally used to assist the ally. Takaichi’s statements were made considering that any attack on Taiwan is threatening to Japan’s Southwestern Islands, their trade routes and border security. 

What does it mean? 
First, Takaichi’s hard stance on China. Even though Takaichi’s stance on China was tougher than the previous administrations. She has no plan to cut all economic ties or sever their relations with China. But it can be reckoned that under her administration, the presence of Chinese investments and influence will be actively limited and a more hawkish view towards China will be practised. 

Second, conservative influence. Takaichi’s recent remarks reflected the conservative nationalist polices in Japan that she has been endorsing in her campaign. Her tenure can also expect to see stronger national defence policies, as she called to increase the defence spending and to revise Article 9 to have stronger missile capabilities. Her policy towards China is a reflection of these values, viewing Taiwan as a deterrent to the larger Chinese security threat is convincing in the region. 

Third, active de-escalation. Since the comments were made, China’s ministers and ministries have actively condemned the statement and have demanded that Japan retract it. Japan, on the other hand, at first stood firm with what Takaichi said, but now it can be seen that active steps are being taken to de-escalate the situation. Japan has sent their envoy over to calm the situation, but it refuses to take the comments back. This has already affected both the tourism and entertainment industries, with China issuing travel advisories and delaying the release of Japanese films. 

About the author
Femy Francis is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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