Femy Francis Femy Francis is a Project Associate at NIAS

“Let Beijing believe peaceful reunification is still possible”: Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
On Taiwan, Japan, G2 strategy, multilateralism, S&T, and regional tensions
Femy Francis 

On 01 December, SCMP interviewed Zhou Bo, who is a retired colonel from China’s People’s Liberation Army. He started his military service in 1979 and was posted in the Guangzhou Air Force Regional Command. He has been Deputy Director General of the General Planning Bureau of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Ministry of National Defence of China. Currently, now a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert. He recently came out with the Book “Should the World Fear China?” The following are the key takeaways from the interview:

First, reunification of China and Taiwan is eventual and natural. Zhou believes that the reunification will happen; the question is about how. Will it be peaceful or forced? He states that the peaceful reunification is possible if they are patient and not provoked. This depends on how the Taiwanese authorities are reacting to China, considering that Beijing is forced to not be reckoned with. Taiwan should oppose its President William Lai Ching-te’s provocations. The unification is natural because why would a strong country like China allow a part of its territory to remain separate forever?

Second, Japan’s Prime Minister was testing the water on the Taiwan issue. On the statement by Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on extending support for Taiwan. Zhou believes that it was aimed at the domestic audience and that she should have learned the lesson, as she refused to make an apology. Domestic protests against Takaichi will surely make Japanese leaders cautious in the future. Should there be a conflict, Japan is obliged to support the US and provide its base; it’s a whole different question if it should enter the war directly. The issue with Japan is only minor for China; Japan is progressing slowly, while they have increased its defence budget, the only pretext for tension is Taiwan, according to Zhou.

Third, China is against the G2 strategy. This was first introduced by former US President Barack Obama, who proposed that a hypothetical international framework would be established. Where the United States and China, as the world's two dominant powers, would bilaterally manage major global security and economic issues. China declined this offer and states that this goes against their belief in multilateralism. Therefore, China does not accept and should not accept it, because it would alienate them from other countries.

Fourth, economic interdependence leads to subsequent détente. Zhou asks not to look at détente through the lenses of the Cold War, which was based on fear and nuclear warheads, in which the US is way ahead. The easing of tensions is eventual because, unlike the Cold War times, there is economic interdependence and dependence. This easing of tension due to economic considerations is a form of small détente.

Fifth, China to restrain unless provoked. While China may not seem as restrained, and its went through a long period of calling for cooperation. It is the US that wants competition than corporations. China to now thrown its towel, and if that’s what it wants, China will not back down. Zhou said: “I definitely believe they think competition will prevail over cooperation. But for China, we hope there can be more cooperation.”

Sixth, China exercises global influence through policies and mediation. Zhou believes China has no sphere of influence that the Western world talks about, and in his book Should the World Fear China? He elaborates. He states that in his own region, neither Japan nor South Korea will listen to China. Southeast Asia, often called Beijing’s backyard, has contesting issues. In South Asia as well, the ties with India aren’t great. China proposes global influence through its projects like BRI and building alliances through trade and economy, and the other way is to be a mediator in troubled regions.

Seventh, China will not be a hegemon. Zhou states that the Chinese culture is against unilateralism and bilateralism. He quotes China’s leader Deng Xiaoping who said: “If one day China should change her colour and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.”

Eighth, China and the US to dominate the AI and outer space competition. Zhou believes that the future of the international market will only have US weapons that are expensive, combat-tested. On the other hand, there are Chinese weapons, equally good but cheaper. Outer Space has become a “mutually assured vulnerability in space,” according to Zhou. If there is war in outer space, it will be an all-out war.

Ninth, China must increase nuclear warheads. When asked about the lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, Zhou states that they need to increase their number of nuclear weapons in case of conventional warfare. He said: “I don’t believe China would use nuclear weapons in the Taiwan Strait because Taiwanese people are our compatriots.” But they need to be prepared in case the US make such threats.

Tenth, the situation in the South China Sea is expected to remain under control. Until the US and Australia interfere. Conflict in the South China Sea is not zero, but has very low chances. Considering the overwhelming power of the Chinese military, which can maintain peace in the region. The problem arises when there are collisions between the US and Australia. ASEAN, as an organisation, according to Zhou, is unfit to mediate peace in the region.

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