Femy Francis

The World This Week Focus Note #349, Vol 8, No 11, 22 March 2026

What happened?

On 18 March, US President Donald Trump announced that he would postpone his plans to visit Beijing and meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump was scheduled to visit China from 31 March to 02 April 2026, which has now been tentatively shifted to the end of April.

Trump noted that he is rescheduling the meeting amid the ongoing war with Iran, requiring him to stay back in Washington. He said: “Because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here,” and noted that “We’re working with China. They were fine with it.”

What is the background?

1. The road to the Xi-Trump meeting
Trump’s last visit to China was during his first term in 2017. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs informed that they “remain in communication” about Trump’s plans to visit. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt informed: “They understand the president’s rationale for doing.” The meeting was aimed at addressing a range of topics, from trade tensions, export control of rare earths, and the sale of fentanyl. Before the postponement, Trump also sought China’s support to help reopen the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

After Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs and a series of retaliations by China. Steps were taken to stabilise tensions.  US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met to discuss a possible tariff truce. By mid 2025, representatives of two countries met on the sidelines of the G20 meeting to discuss a tariff freeze. Eventually tariff halt was agreed on, and this pause was extended to 2026. More recently US and Chinese delegation met in Paris to discuss economic cooperation. Aimed to set the stage for the scheduled and later postponed Trump-Xi meeting. This was led by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent; the meeting saw no conclusive resolution.

2. Trade tensions between the US and China
The US and China engaged in a tariff war in 2025, with a series of escalations. At the height of tariff tensions, the US imposed a 155 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, and China retaliated with a 125 per cent tariff. This tariff crossfire is officially on pause as of now after the high-level meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in October of 2025. After which, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that both Beijing and Washington reached a consensus on tariffs, export controls, and port fees, agreeing to a tariff pause until 2026. This tariff truce followed China's imposition of export controls on rare-earth materials. China's monopoly over the supply chain for rare earths sent shockwaves across the globe, serving as a catalyst for the trade truce between the US and China.

3. China’s interest in Iran
This has been driven by economic opportunity, geopolitical interest, and energy needs. China has been the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil, importing 90 per cent of it. Iran sells this oil to China at a discounted price, in return for the military and technology support Beijing provides. Amid unilateral American sanctions, China has been the economy backing Iran. Additionally, Iran is part of China’s BRI and serves as the strategic link connecting Central Asia, West Asia, and Europe. It signed a long-term agreement in 2021 for USD 400 million investments over 25 years.

What does it mean?

First, US wartime priorities. The Trump-Xi scheduled meeting was a high-profile engagement aimed to reach some conclusion on their economic relations and curbing trade tensions. This was before the US strike on Iran and its retaliation. War-time priorities call for Trump and the US administration to currently focus on war, with the growing dissent on the Trump administration’s decision to go to war. The war cabinet will sideline other engagements as it tries to manoeuvre through. Additionally, China has condemned the US and Israel’s war efforts publicly while calling for mediation, noting that this attack violates the national sovereignty of Iran.

Second, an extended tariff pause. The decision on tariffs is on pause and will remain so at least until the dust of war settles. The US court ruled that Trump’s tariffs were illegal and therefore invalid. This has been taken up by China, which is calling for the complete retraction of unilateral tariffs. The future of tariffs remains inclusive.

Third, China’s priorities. China does not feel particularly jilted, has been leading its own peace wagon with other leaders, and sees this as an opportunity to rebuild relations with European countries and the United Kingdom. China has also been actively engaging with Gulf Cooperation Council countries to reach a peace agreement and urges all actors to engage in dialogue. Though its overall support for Iran is muted, it is limited to mere rhetoric and not actionable.

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