Avaneesh S Avaneesh S is a postgraduate student from the Department of History, School of Social Sciences, Pondicherry University. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

What happened?
On 06 July, China launched a Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) with a dummy warhead from the South China Sea and into the Pacific Ocean. It was reportedly launched from one of China’s Type 094 Nuclear submarines and used the JL-2 SLBM. After the launch, Beijing received immense criticism from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Taiwan and later, from the US and NATO. China’s news agencies reported on PLAN stating that the test had “complied with international law and international practice and was not directed at any specific country or target.” The test occurred after a few hours in which Australia and Fiji had signing a mutual defence treaty, becoming the fourth treaty ally of Canberra, after Papua New Guinea in 2025 and the US. 

Following the test, Japan stated that they had only been informed of the test 90 minutes ahead of the launch. The US State Department officials termed the launch and the inadequate notices as “irresponsible.” The move was also criticised by NATO Chief Mark Rutte who stated that the launch was “evidence that we cannot be naive about China.”
 
What is the background?
1. China’s military modernisation and expanding nuclear arsenal
Since 2020, China has been modernising its nuclear triad armaments, including phasing out its Type 094 Nuclear-powered Ballistic Missile submarines. China began developing the Type 096, which is to be introduced by the end of this decade. The latest SLBM test flew a reported range of 7,500 kilometres, and is Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) capable of being able to carry at least 3 warheads in a single missile. Being MIRV-capable, longer-range SLBM would raise the credible deterrence level for strikes against China, especially against neutralising its nuclear arsenal. The latest test allows China to raise its minimum credible deterrence towards a much greater level of deterrence.

2. China’s increasing military activity to counter the US and Australian presence in the Indo-Pacific
China’s expanding military activities are also an attempt to constrain the US influence and operating space within the first and second island chains in the South China Sea and by extension, into the Pacific. The US maintains a significant presence in the Pacific region, closely coordinating with regional powers such as Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia. It is able to maintain a large naval presence in the region due to the close partnership with these powers, and additionally having bases in the pacific islands such as Guam, Hawaii and Marshall Islands. 

Australia has also increased its footprint in the region by increasing its formal treaty allies from the US to Papua New Guinea and Fiji. It is also set to deepen ties with the Solomon Islands after a China-friendly government was voted out of power, and the incumbent Prime Minister is set to review a security pact with Beijing. China enjoys close relations with several Pacific Island Countries (PICs) through various initiatives. But Australia’s move of increasing its outreach to the PICs slowly pushes out China’s influence in the region.

What does it mean?
First, the missile test is to showcase China’s rapid modernisation. Through the missile test, China showed off its nuclear arsenal and continuous at-sea deterrence. Here, the doctrine seeks to have at least one permanent deployment of second-strike launch capabilities. China is set to showcase more of its modernisation achievements, whether they are armaments or platforms, in the following months and years.

Second, the missile launch appears to be reactionary to multiple activities of the US in the region. The missile launch is a reactionary action to the US's activities of placing Typhon missile systems in the Philippines and Japan, Tokyo supplying Patriot interceptors to Washington, and the recent naval exercises in the Pacific. Therefore, it indicates that China can also strike in US-friendly waters and areas in its sphere of influence, just as the US is able to project that it can strike at China’s own sphere.

Third, China's strategic partnerships strengthen its military posture. The test happened while Russian naval vessels were stationed in China for the 13th China-Russia Joint Sea exercise. It also conducted joint air patrols with Russia last month over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, and the western Pacific. As such, China can posture itself by also having allies and friends through strategic and coordinated military activities.

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