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The World This Quarter
China's External Landscape (Apr-Jun 2026):
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Lakshmi Karlekar
Dr Lakshmi Karlekar is an Assistant Professor at the School of Law, Christ University, Central Campus, Bangalore.
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The second quarter of 2026 saw a more robust and proactive diplomatic posture than the first quarter; Beijing mostly focused on mending relations with Europe and reducing its engagement in Middle Eastern crises. To control bilateral tensions and strengthen its strategic interests in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, Beijing sought high-level meetings with Washington. In tandem with these initiatives, China increased its interaction with the Global South, bolstered collaboration through multilateral organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, and presented itself as a reliable economic partner in the face of growing international unpredictability. The quarter demonstrated China's ongoing efforts to adjust to a more fractured international order while striking a balance between regional security, economic diplomacy, and strategic competitiveness.
1. US-China Summit: Managing Competition without Confrontation
The Trump-Xi summit during 14-15 May 2026 was important to increase supply-chain resilience; the China-US rrivalry has progressively moved away from tariffs and toward technical leadership, especially in artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, essential minerals, and next-generation telecommunications. President Xi Jinping welcomed Trump to the Great Hall of the People during the visit, and the two leaders had discussions there. Xi said during the conference that a "Constructive Strategic and Stable Relationship" will be established. Trump's visit ended without major trade breakthroughs or tangible Chinese support for ending the Iranian conflict, underscoring persistent strategic differences despite the friendly atmosphere, symbolic gestures, and repeated public praise exchanged between the two leaders.
2. Sustaining strategic pressure on Taiwan
As a key component of its asymmetric defense strategy deployed Taiwan has been accelerating its domestic drone industry to lessen reliance on foreign military systems and bolstering deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion through increased investment in domestic unmanned systems and defense technology. Beijing continued to apply economic, political, and military pressure on Taiwan. On 12 June, Cheng Li-wun, the chairman of the Taiwanese opposition Kuomintang (KMT), concluded her two-week journey to the United States. During her visit, she reaffirmed popular KMT talking lines and claimed to advance cross-strait peace. Cheng's international activities may be seen by the PRC as a chance to subtly further its favored cross-strait policy.
3. Countering containment in the South China Sea
Since June, China and the Philippines battled three times in a week at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, leading to joint maritime drills with the US, the Philippines, and Japan. After the Philippines formally submitted its petition to the UN for enhanced seabed rights in the South China Sea, Beijing condemned Manila of "flagrantly infringing" on Chinese sovereignty and jeopardizing regional stability. Following Manila's presentation to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS), China criticized Manila's attempt "as a pretext to hype up" the 2016 South China Sea arbitral ruling. Beijing has declared the decision to be "illegal, null and void." Nearly all the islands and rock formations in the South China Sea are claimed by Beijing; China shares certain territorial claims with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei along the resource-rich waterway.
Following an incident between their respective warships in the disputed seas, the governments of China and the Philippines exchanged accusations, prompting the US and Japan to join the Philippines in maritime drills in the South China Sea. The goal of the five-day exercises, which took place during 21-25 July, was to improve interoperability among the allies by bringing together warships, coast guard boats, and fighter and observation planes.
4. Renewed ties with the UK
On 2 June 2026, Yvette Cooper, UK’s Foreign Secretary, visited China. The UK has continued to emphasize "de-risking" economic reliance on China, especially in areas including vital technology, electric cars, and important infrastructure. During the visit, the UK announced a new collaboration between Prudential plc and the National Innovation Centre for Ageing (NICA) to establish several regional hubs for healthy ageing throughout China. The partnership is expected to boost the UK's position as a global leader in health innovation and open up new business prospects for British healthcare and life sciences companies, bringing growth back to the UK.
Additionally, the Foreign Secretary promoted the UK as an open, competitive investment destination by interacting with technology businesses, investors, and top business executives while in Shenzhen. She advocated for the need for international norms and international collaboration regarding AI safety and security as technology evolves after witnessing some of the robotics and AI advancements in China.
5. India-China strategic visits
Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, on 22 June 2026, in New Delhi. According to Wang Yi, the border regions have remained mostly quiet, communication and collaboration are developing in an orderly manner, and exchanges in a variety of disciplines have gradually restarted because of both sides' combined efforts. According to Ajit Doval, both India and China have agreed that they are partners rather than adversaries and have set the path for the growth of bilateral ties through their meetings in Kazan and Tianjin. India has maintained its stance on the Taiwan issue and was among the first nations to acknowledge the People's Republic of China.
6. Managing the US-Iran Crisis
Since April, one of the most difficult challenges of China's Middle East foreign policy was the US-Iran conflict. China and Iran continue to have a broad strategic alliance; China buys most Iran's oil exports through the Chabahar port; both nations cooperate under the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) frameworks and reject the US-led world order. For the first time, Beijing's primary regional interests—maintaining relations with the Gulf nations, protecting the stability of the Iranian government, and avoiding open conflict with the UN have come under simultaneous strain.
Beijing has taken a course of action designed to keep its leeway in the area while also avoiding having to decide. Mao Ning, the spokesperson for the foreign ministry, emphasized the efforts to create diplomatic exposure at a conference on 7 April. China suggested several political ideas, participated in the UN Security Council, and sent a special envoy to the Middle East. Chinese "non-action" maintained its strategic adaptability and its connections with all parties involved, but it did not necessarily increase trust in its readiness to bear expenses on their behalf in an emergency. The US-Iran conflict demonstrates both the benefits and limitations of Chinese forbearance.
7. Leveraging the BRI
In order to create a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that is environmentally benign and green, China wants to be the world leader in independent, research-based policy creation, advice, and action. This calls for bring free of greenhouse gas emissions and climate-neutral with biodiversity protection. China has also suggested an economic corridor connecting its southwestern regions with Bangladesh and Myanmar during Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's June visit to Beijing. Beijing has stated that it will continue to be open to India and other nations, while Dhaka claims it is still reviewing the plan. This is Beijing's first significant move in years to revitalize regional connectivity within a smaller framework. The concept is similar to the much-discussed Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor, which aimed to provide road and rail connections to the Bay of Bengal between Kunming, Mandalay, Dhaka, and Kolkata.
To conclude: China in the second quarter (April-June 2026)
Beijing's foreign engagement remained centered on strategic competition with the US, which went far beyond trade issues to include developing technology, vital supply chains, regional security, and the struggle for worldwide influence. Beijing's emphasis on defending what it views as its primary strategic interests has been strengthened by regional events in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, which have continued to influence Beijing’s security objectives. China attempted to increase its diplomatic engagement despite these obstacles by fortifying its connections with international players and regional organizations.
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