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CWA # 2181, 10 July 2026
CW Note
The War in Ukraine:

  Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS

In the news
During 02 and 05 July, Russia's launched one of the largest aerial attacks on Kyiv, killing several civilians and destroying residential buildings and humanitarian facilities. Ukraine expanded drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure, including the Ufa refinery.

On 07 July, Ukrainian military intensified its attacks against Russian logistics by targeting at least ten sanctioned fuel tankers from Russia's "shadow fleet" operating in the Sea of Azov, aiming to disrupt fuel supplies to occupied Crimea. Addressing the NATO Summit in Ankara, President Zelenskyy renewed Ukraine's appeal for NATO membership, arguing that Ukraine's armed forces had become "one of the most experienced militaries in the world" and would strengthen NATO's collective defence. Ukraine also signed new drone cooperation agreements with Denmark, Estonia and the Netherlands, showing the growing international demand for its battlefield-tested drone technology.

On 07 July, Ukraine claimed responsibility for one of its longest-range attacks of the war by striking the Omsk oil refinery in Siberia, nearly 2,700 km from Ukrainian-held territory. Zelenskyy said: "Siberia, too, is now within reach of Ukrainian precision strikes." 

On 07 July, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that the conflict could end "in a single day" if Ukraine ordered the withdrawal of its forces from the Donbas and recognised the territories claimed by Russia. 

On 07 July, NATO leaders reaffirmed their long-term commitment to Ukraine through new defence-industrial partnerships and military assistance while stopping short of offering a pathway to Alliance membership. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged Allies to present "clear, concrete and credible plans" to meet NATO's defence spending targets, as members announced more than USD 50 billion in defence contracts and announced support for strengthening Ukraine's defence capabilities. 

On 09 July, US President Trump after his meeting with Zelenskyy said: “US will work on some kind of security package" and guaranteed to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture the Patriot defence systems.

Issues at large
1. Ukraine's increasing deep-strikes
Since early 2024, Ukraine has steadily extended the operational range of its indigenous long-range drones, targeting Russian oil refineries, ammunition depots, airbases and logistics hubs far beyond the frontline. Ukraine has rapidly transformed its domestic defence industry since 2022 by expanding production of long-range drones, Neptune cruise missiles, electronic warfare systems and precision-strike capabilities. Earlier strikes reached facilities at Ryazan (approximately 500 km), Tuapse on the Black Sea coast (around 450 km), and Tatarstan's Alabuga special economic zone (about 1,200 km), followed by attacks on the Ufa refinery (roughly 1,300 km) and the Olenya airbase on the Kola Peninsula (nearly 1,800 km). The strike on the Omsk oil refinery in Siberia, located approximately 2,700 km from Ukrainian-held territory, marks Ukraine's deepest confirmed attack of the war. Unlike previous strikes concentrated in western Russia or near strategic military corridors, the Omsk refinery lies deep within Russia's industrial heartland and accounts for nearly one-sixth of the country's fuel production. Crimea continues to serve as Russia's principal military and logistical hub in the Black Sea region, making attacks on transport corridors, fuel depots and the "shadow fleet" central to Ukraine's objective of imposing strategic and economic costs without undertaking large-scale territorial offensives.These operations demonstrates that Ukraine can no longer be constrained by geographical distance. 

2. NATO’s continuing support for Ukraine
Washington has increasingly urged European allies to assume greater responsibility for regional security, including higher defence spending and sustained assistance to Kyiv. In response, European members have accelerated efforts to strengthen defence-industrial cooperation, expand arms production and deepen partnerships with Ukraine, particularly in drone technology. Although Ukraine's membership aspirations remain stalled, the summit underscored Europe's determination to sustain Ukraine's military resilience.

3. Ukraine’s drone warfare, yet vulnerable air defence
Since 2022, Ukraine has rapidly expanded domestic production of long-range drones, cruise missiles such as the Neptune, and electronic warfare systems, enabling it to sustain deep-strike operations against Russian military and energy infrastructure. However, defending its cities against Russia's ballistic and hypersonic missiles remains a significant challenge. Western partners have supplied advanced air defence systems, including Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T SLM, SAMP/T, Crotale, Gepard, and HAWK systems, which have substantially strengthened Ukraine's layered air defence network. Nevertheless, limited interceptor production, shortages of Patriot missiles, and the absence of sufficient anti-ballistic capabilities continue to expose Ukrainian capability gap.

In perspective
First, long-range drone warfare to intensify. Ukraine's demonstrated ability to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia suggests that future operations will continue focusing on energy infrastructure, logistics hubs and military production facilities, while Russia is expected to expand retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

Second, defence-industrial cooperation to shape Western support for Ukraine. Instead of focusing exclusively on weapons transfers, European partners are moving towards joint production, technology sharing and long-term industrial partnerships. Ukraine's growing expertise in drone warfare also positions it as an important contributor to Europe's evolving defence architecture.

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