Photo Source:
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in
CW Note
The Ceuta Migration Crisis:
|
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.
|
In the news
On 30 July, Ceuta's leader highlighted a humanitarian and security emergency after roughly 1,500 migrants swam across from Morocco over the preceding week. On the same day, Spain deployed military units to reinforce police as arrivals surged by land and sea, to over 60,000 reported crossings, and some 200 specialised police and 60 troops arrived from mainland Spain.
On 31 July, Spain said the surge of migrants reversed, with most of the more than 50,000 who had crossed returning voluntarily. At least 57 bodies were recovered on the Spanish side, with more deaths feared in Morocco. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the crossings "a violation of Spain's territorial sovereignty," adding that authorities were speeding up the repatriation of those who had entered illegally, with full cooperation from Morocco. Additionally, Italy said it was suspending the European Union's border-free Schengen arrangements with Spain.
On 01 August, Spain confirmed at least 67 deaths as the EU called an emergency ministers' meeting, while France ruled out backing Spain's Schengen suspension.
Between 03 and 04 August, EU Commissioner Magnus Brunner criticised Spain's regularisation plan as sending the wrong signal to Europe. In a letter to Sánchez, Ursula von der Leyen highlighted that EU should double down on five areas: strengthening cooperation with non-EU countries to prevent migration; stronger external borders; implementing early warning systems; dismantling smuggling networks; and boosting returns of people with no right to stay. A statement published by the EU Council said there was “a common understanding of the need to continue relentlessly fighting migrant smuggling networks, to reinforce returns, to strengthen EU borders, to build deep partnerships with third countries, and to improve foresight.”
Issues at large
1. The significance of Ceuta
Ceuta is situated on the North African coast and has been under Spain’s administration since 1580, further formalised under the 1668 Treaty of Lisbon. Morocco, however, has never accepted this settlement, arguing that it was concluded without the country’s participation, and that Ceuta and Melilla were “occupied territorie.s.” Despite this, Spain and Morocco cooperate extensively on intelligence exchange, border surveillance, and maritime operations. The enclave constitutes one of the European Union's only land borders with mainland Africa, making it a critical gateway between two continents, while also bordering the Strait of Gibraltar (one of the world's busiest shipping lanes) that connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea.
2. Unemployment and economic stagnation causing recurring waves of migrants
Migrants have used the Morocco-Ceuta crossing for decades, with structural factors such as economic disparities, unemployment and illicit migration networks continuing to underpin illegal migration to Ceuta and Spain. This pattern can be traced to two key previous events. In September 2005, thousands of sub-Saharan migrants attempted coordinated crossings at Ceuta and Melilla, and at least 13 died; this drew criticism over the use of force by Spain and Morocco. Furthermore, in May 2021, roughly 8000 migrants, many Moroccan nationals and unaccompanied minors, swam or scaled fences into Ceuta after Rabat reportedly loosened border controls amid disputes with Madrid over hosting the leader of the Polisario Front. The current wave of migrants, the largest so far, was predominantly composed of young families from Morocco’s northern towns such as Tetouan, Fnideq and Tangier. Analysts have attributed the push factors to persistently high youth unemployment, rural economic stagnation and limited domestic opportunity, compounded by social media amplification and misinformation surrounding a 29 June ruling by the Supreme Court of Spain.
3. Spain’s migration policy in the backdrop of the EU’s response
The 29 June 2026 Supreme Court ruling stated that migrants intercepted swimming towards Ceuta cannot be summarily deported, since they had not crossed a formal border "containment element" as Spain’s law requires. This decision, officials and analysts highlight as a catalyst for the August 2026 wave of migrants, adding that smuggling networks used this ruling and its misinterpretations to encourage crossings. Madrid has since proposed floating barriers to restore expedited returns while complying with the ruling. This happened in the backdrop of Spain's regularisation programme for undocumented residents, which the EU representatives have called an “unhelpful signal” for illegal migration. The recent crisis also brings the EU's migration strategies into focus: they have increasingly relied on neighbouring countries to prevent irregular migration before migrants reach Europe. Additionally, the episode has reinforced ongoing discussions within the EU regarding the sustainability of externalised border governance and burden-sharing among member states, as underlined in the meeting on 04 August and Ursula von der Leyen’s five areas of necessary cooperation.
In perspective
The crisis demonstrates that Ceuta continues to function as a pressure point of recurring irregular migration. For Spain, the crisis perhaps points to the fragility of a border management system dependent on external cooperation and disputed sea-return laws. Additionally, the crisis which was treated as a matter of EU-wide concern, where rhetorical solidarity was paired with criticism of Spain's own domestic policy, possibly demonstrates the friction as Brussels hopes to push for an even more standardised border management policy.
| | |
Bookmark |
Lekshmi MK
The War in Ukraine:
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.
The Ceuta Migration Crisis:
Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate scholar at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. She is also a Research Intern at NIAS, Bengaluru.
President Zelenskyy's visit to the US:
Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.
Heatwaves and Wildfires in Spain and France:
Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a postgraduate in International Studies and International Humanitarian Action. He is currently a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader team.
Ten Years and Seven Prime Ministers in the UK:
Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.Â
NATO Summit 2026:
Preetha Renganarayanan
Europe's expanding and intensifying heatwaves:
Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS
The War in Ukraine:
Ramya B | Ramya B is an Associate Professor at the Department of History, Kristu Jayanti Deemed to be University, Bengaluru
Russia (April-June 2026)
Himani Pant | Dr Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi
Europe (April-June 2026)
Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.
The War in Ukraine:
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.
The G7 Summit 2026
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.Â
The War in Ukraine:
Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.
The War in Ukraine:
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine
Ramya B | Ramya B is an Associate Professor at the Department of History, Kristu Jayanti University, Bengaluru
Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Himani Pant | Dr Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi
Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Shreya Upadhyay
The United States (Jan-Mar 2026)
Padmashree Anandhan
Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts
Padmashree Anandhan
Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine
Femy Francis
German Chancellor’s China Visit
Padmashree Anandhan
Four Years of War in Ukraine
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi
Lekshmi MK
The War in Ukraine
Lekshmi MK
Munich Security Conference 2026:
Lekshmi MK
Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation approach and Europe’s defence
Padmashree Anandhan
Delay in peace talks, renewed global support to Ukraine and escalating ground tensions
Padmashree Anandhan
A weighed-down peace plan, a missing European stance and Russia’s new demands
Padmashree Anandhan
Trump's 28-point Peace Plan, Russia's Aerial Offensive and the Fighting in Pokrovsk
Akshath Kaimal
The UK: The new asylum reform and a shift towards more restrictive policies
Padmashree Anandhan
Escalating battles in Ukraine: Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk under intense pressure
Padmashree Anandhan
EU-India Free Trade Negotiations: Convergences and Divergences
Padmashree Anandhan
Trump-Zelenskyy-European Leaders meeting: Tough discussions and the difficult road ahead
Padmashree Anandhan
Trump-Putin talks on Ukraine: The tough road ahead
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine: Russia’s attacks continue, despite Trump’s 50-day deadline to Moscow for a ceasefire
Chittrothu Vaihali
EU-Canada Summit 2025
Swati SoodÂ
Modi’s visit to Cyprus:
Padmashree Anandhan
NATO Summit 2025:
Gauri Gupta
The EU, Hungary and the clash over LGBTQ+ Rights
Santhiya M
Romania’s Presidential Election: Candidates, Issues and Results
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine: US, Europe and a Fragile Road to Peace
Advik S Mohan
Moldova’s Referendum: Between EU membership, Russian influence and public dissatisfaction
Advik S Mohan
The Housing Crisis in the Netherlands: What has caused it and what has been the government response?
Advik S Mohan
The Anti-LGBTQ+ Law in Georgia: Why Now and Who Supports It?
Advik S Mohan
The European Housing Crisis: A Background
Neha Tresa George
The Meloni-Starmer Meeting: Six Takeaways
Samruddhi Pathak
Serbia: Why are people protesting over lithium mining?
Neha Tresa George
Vladimir Putin visits Mongolia: Who wants what?
Neha Tresa George
Attack on Nord Stream: Two years later
Advik S Mohan
Poland launches EagleEye Satellite
Samruddhi Pathak
EU-China clash over EV tariffs: China’s emergence and EU’s protectionism
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive: What does Kyiv want to achieve?
Shilpa Jospeh
Portugal: Democrats win over socialists by a thin margin
Samruddhi Pathak
Meloni and Xi sign a three-year Action Plan: Five Focus Areas of China-Italy Collaboration
Sayeka Ghosh
Immigration Backlash Fuels Far-Right Surge in Italy's EU Vote
Govind Anoop
Hungary: Right Wing wins; Support shifts to Centre
Ayan Datta
Poland: Tusk’s centrist coalition wins narrowly; Far-right gains ground
Vetriselvi Baskaran
Belgium: Extremist parties see narrow win
Neha Tresa George
Germany: Rise of Far-Right questions survival of the left leaning coalition
Padmashree Anandhan
France: Rise of Far-right triggers political crisis
Padmashree Anandhan
European People’s Party (EPP) Leads with clear majority Country wise breakup
Neha Tresa George
EU elections - Part II: A profile of recent four elections (2004-2019)
Shilpa Joseph and Ken Varghese
Voting for the next MEPs
Padmashree Anandhan
Putin-Xi Summit: Towards a Strategic transformation in Russia-China relations
Padmashree Anandhan
China and France: President Xi's visit to Paris showcases Beijing's strategic approach
Femy Francis
President Xi in Serbia: Looking at China's Balkans Strategy and beyond 25th year of bombing anniversary
Akhil Ajith
President Xi in Hungary: An evolving symbiotic partnership vis-Ã -vis Europe
Alka Bala
UN Ocean Decade Conference 2024: Stakeholders & Balance Sheet
Alka Bala
25 Years of Euro: What lies ahead?
Padmashree Anandhan
Ireland: Four reasons why Prime Minister Leo Varadkar resigned
Rosemary Kurian
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement: The French Senate votes against Canada. Why?
Alka Bala
The UK bans bottom trawling for three reasons: It is not sufficient
Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Akhil Ajith, Shamini Velayutham and Anu Maria Joseph
Expert Interview: Russia in the International Order
Alka Bala
Decoding the UK-Rwanda migration bill post supreme court ruling
Alka Bala
Norway: Parliament approves controversial deep-sea mining
Rosemary Kurian
Farmers' protests highlight economic stress and a rising far-right in the EU
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine: Drones, missiles and counterattacks
Padmashree Anandhan
Poland elections 2023: Reasons behind the shift
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine: The failure of the Black Sea Grain Initiative
Rishika Yadav
Three Seas Initiative: Uplifting Eastern and Central Europe
Sreeja JS
EU Digital Services Act: Three implications
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
Issues for Europe
Yogeswari S | CSIS
Poland’s engagement
Feben Itty | CSIS
NATO’s Challenge
Genesy B | abcnews
Russia’s Endgame
Sreeja JS
Ukraine’s Strategies and Endgame
Heribert Dieter
The US and the EU are lacking support in many developing and emerging economies
Sneha Surendran
Wildfires in Europe: Another year of devastation
Rishika Yadav
Floods in Europe: Impacts, and issues
Padmashree Anandhan
Return of the Heatwaves
Rishika Yadav
The crisis over Turkey-Cyprus road project: Six Questions
Indrani Talukdar
Ukraine War and the International Order
Himani Pant
Germany-Russia Relations: What Next?
Ankita Dutta
The Ukraine War: Europe’s Watershed moment, with four significant outcomes
Rubina Pradhan
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: A Prototype for Global Emissions Reduction Mechanism
Medini Hegde
Euroscepticism Transformed: Italy’s Meloni Seeks to Reform the EU from Within
Ramya Balasubramanian
Russia and Europe: Understanding Moscow’s strategies
Lakshmi Parimala
Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine
Padmashree Anandhan
Rise and fall of the Wagner Revolt: Four Takeaways
Sneha Surendran
The Wagner Revolt: A profile of Yevgeny Prigozhin
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine: Four Issues to watch in 2023
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
Akshaya S
Russia’s imperial ambitions: Suppressing Ukraine’s Culture
Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George | Rishika Yadav is a Research Assistant in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS. Nithyashree RB, Sreeja JS, and Melvin George are Research Interns in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS.
The Battle for Bakhmut: Significance, Objectives, Course, and What Next
Nithyashree RB
Poland approves Russian Influence Law: Three Implications
Sreeja JS
The Nordic-Ukraine Summit: Four Takeaways
Rishika Yadav | Research Assistant, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Serbia: Mass shootings, protests and instability
Rishika Yadav and Nityashree RB | Research Assistant and Research Intern, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Turkey’s Elections: Unravelling the Political Spectacle of 2023
Padmashree Anandhan | Research Associate National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore
Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?
Indrani Talukdar
Russia's Position in the Arctic: New challenges
Debangana Chatterjee
The Ground Reality of Feminist Foreign Policy: A Conceptual Analysis of the European Framework
Kasturi Chatterjee
European Integration: Why Recognition of the Armenian Genocide Matters for the EU
Ankita Dutta
Ukraine crisis: Relooking the Security Debates in Europe
Amrita Purkayastha
Assessing EU Integration over the Years by Analysing the Response of Member Countries to Refugees
Rishika Yadav
Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes
Padmashree Anandhan
Pentagon document leak: Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens
Himani Pant
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s India visit: Taking bilateral relations to the next level
Sourina Bej
UK's new bill is a misguided patchwork to Europe's refugee problem
Indrani Talukdar
Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
Padmashree Anandhan
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue
Sai Pranav
Energy Charter Treaty: Three reasons for EU member states exit
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China
Sourina Bej
The UK: Domestic, regional and global challenges to the new Prime Minister
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?
Mathew Sonu Simon
The Ukraine Conflict: What does it mean for Eastern Europe? Where does India stand?
Sourina Bej
Boris Johnson exits: The Unravelling of UK leadership in crisis
Rashmi Ramesh
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts
Rishma Banerjee
Tracing Europe's droughts
Sai Pranav
Mapping Europe's Wildfires and tracing the causes
Padmashree Anandhan
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves
Emmanuel Selva Royan
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war
Padmashree Anandhan
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?
Rishma Banerjee
100 days of the Ukraine war: Ukraine holds their own against Russia’s aggression
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia
Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow
Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War
Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia
Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions
Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?
Sourina Bej
Elections in Sweden
Padmashree Anandhan
Italy's far-right wins 2022 elections
Padmashree Anandhan
Putin’s address in the Valdai Discussion: Six takeaways
Padmashree Anandhan
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East
Padmashree Anandhan
Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liss Truss v. Rishi Sunak
Padmashree Anandhan
Will Russia's latest attack on the Odessa port, undermine the grain deal with Ukraine?
Padmashree Anandhan
France: Uber files leak, and Macron’s trouble
Emmanuel Selva Royan
Italy: Three factors about its current political instability
Padmashree Anandhan
What does Macron's victory mean for France and the EU
Rishma Banerjee
The rise of Marine Le Pen
Sourina Bej
Four challenges ahead for President Macron
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lecture report: Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Into History: Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday, 50 years later
Padmashree Anandhan
Munich Security Report: Six takeawaysÂ
Joeana Cera MatthewsÂ
Europe and Africa: An elusive search for an equal partnership
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Femicides in Europe: The case of France
Padmashree Anandhan
Post Brexit: Three challenges in Northern Ireland
Ashwin Immanuel DhanabalanÂ
Lithuania and China: Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel. Four reasons whyÂ
Angelin Archana
Russia in 2021: Expanding boundaries
Joeana Cera Matthews
In Europe, abortion rights are "a privilege." Four reasons why
Padmashree Anandhan
Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who and Why
Harini Madhusudan
The Artemis Accords: Three reasons why Europe is not on the same page with the US
Vaishnavi Iyer
France, Algeria, and the politics over an apology
Joeana Cera Matthews
NATO-Russia relationship: Looking beyond the suspensions and expulsions
Padmashree Anandhan
Facebook's Metaverse: Why it matters to Europe
Joeana Cera MatthewsÂ
Belarus's strategy to push migrants: Â Europe will find it difficult to respond. Four reasons why
Joeana Cera MatthewsÂ
Poland, EU and PolExit. It is complicated, for three reasons
Harini Madhusudhan
Europe's Energy Crisis and GazpromÂ
Sourina Bej
Recent terror attacks in Europe: Five trends from England to Norway
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Europe's Energy Crisis: It could get worse. Five reasons why
Sourina Bej
France: Paris Terror Trial
Harini Madhusudan
Belarus: Weaponization of the Migrant Crisis
Joeana Cera MatthewsÂ
From Crimea to Navalny:Â Putin's calibrated Europe strategy
Joeana Cera MatthewsÂ
Nord Stream-2: Why is the region unhappy about the pipeline?
Sarthak Jain
Nord Stream 2 is Russia’s geopolitical victory
Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar
The EU Summit 2021: Five Takeaways
Chetna Vinay Bhora
