Photo : the Institute for the Study of War with AEI's Critical threats project
Photo : the Institute for the Study of War with AEI's Critical threats project
By Ken B Varghese and Padmashree Anandhan
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 15 May, the BBC reported on Ukraine’s withdrawal of troops from several villages in the Kharkiv region due to the pressure from the Russian forces. According to a spokesperson from Ukraine military, heavy fire had pushed the Ukrainian soldiers towards more advantageous positions in two areas of the northeastern region. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President cancelled all the upcoming foreign trips as the army struggles to control the new cross border issues, with many towns and villages under heavy fire. The Russians claimed that the forces had taken control of two more areas in the region-Lukyantaki, Hlyboke and village of Robotyne, in the Southern Zaporizhzhya region. But the Ukraine claimed that its military still has control over most parts of Robotyne and that the Russian forces remain in the outskirts. Ukraine’s military move away from Lukyantsi and Vochansk area is considered tactical to “preserve the lives of our service men and avoid losses.”
On the same day, the Ukrainian military reported on three clashes with the Russians in the Kharkiv region. Russian forces were observed to have attacked in the direction of Lyptus, located between Kharkiv city and Russia. The statement also added fire in two villages, Lyptsi and Mala Danylivka while the Ukrainian forces tried to repel a Russian offensive in Volchansk. Ukraine general staff said that the Russian attack had prompted the forces to reposition its troops in the Kupyansk direction which is 118 kilometres south west of Kharkiv city. As a result, thousands of civilians have fled towards Kharkiv including people from Vovchansk.
On 15 May, in a press conference in Kyiv, Antony Blinken said that the US will provide an additional USD two billion in aid to Ukraine. This fund would be used for purchasing weapons from the US, other countries and to invest in the manufacturing of its own machinery and weapons. Blinken said: “…all of this particular as we think about the defence industrial base builds on an incredible spirit of innovation, of ingenuity,of entrepreneurship that we see here in Ukraine.”
On 15 May, Zelenskyy reported on the Ukrainian military ability to partially stabilise the situation in the Kharkiv Oblast, where the Russian army had intensified their offensive. In his address, he stressed on maintain his attention on the Kharkiv front line. This is the area near the border where all units of Defence and security forces of Ukraine have managed to partially stabilise the situation.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 15 May, RT reported on Vladimir Putin, Russian President explanation on the failure of peace talks with Ukraine. He said that Russia had never zeroed for a peaceful settlement but insists only accounting of interest of all involved parties. In an interview with Xinhua, ahead of his visit to China, Putin appreciated China’s peace initiative for the Ukraine conflict and said: “…the genuine desire of our Chinese friends to help stabilize the situation.” China’s proposal was first published in February calling for a ceasefire and Putin praised the idea of “indivisible security.” Putin stressed on Russia’s concerns not to be neglected while the same idea targeting toward long-term peace. He added that any dialogue should be a “substantive discussion on global stability” and give security guarantees for Russian opponents and Russia. He highlighted the key issue to be “reliability of the guarantees” given by the states. He also accused the West for isolating and imposing illegal sanctions while ignoring the attacked launched by Ukraine inside Russia.
On 15 May, Russian defence ministry reported on recapturing a key village of Rabotino in Zaporizhzhia. According to the report in RT, the gain was achieved through military action against Ukrainian forces which resulted in loss of 25 troops and US-made M777 howitzer. Rabotino located 75 kilometres from northeast of Meltipol serves as the regional capital and was earlier attempted by the Russian forces to capture in March 2022. This was turned around as Ukrainian troops forced to withdraw.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses of the US and Europe
On 15 May, Politico reported on how Turkey had become a transit place for Russia to export fuel into the EU. Ahead of the invasion, the EU relied on Russia for its crude oil and diesel purchases and that has changed after the bloc agreed to ban import from Russia from 2022. Around the same time, Turkey is observed to have increased its import from Russia, while ramping up its fuel export into the EU. Research by Politico revealed that between February 2023 and 2024, Turkey boosted its purchase from Russia by 105 per cent with an equal boost to its fuel export by 107 per cent. Turkey has refineries that can process almost one million barrels of crude per day. Through this the Turkish firms also sell non-Russian fuels to the EU. Due to the geographical situation of several ports in Turkish ports, combined with import - export data, strongly suggests that most of the Russian fuels have been simply repackaged and exported. Between February 2023 and 2024 the port had taken 22 million barrels of fuel of which 92 per cent came from Russia at the same time 85 per cent of the port's fuel was exported to the EU. This was legal possible as the EU sanctions allow “blended” fuels into the EU, if they are labelled as non-Russian. This loophole has created nearly EUR three billion for the Russian’s from the ports alone in 12 months after the EU banned Russia's fuel in February 2023. Martin Vladimirov, senior energy analyst said: “Turkey has emerged as a strategic pit stop for Russian Fuel products rerouted to the EU, generating hundreds of millions in tax revenues for the Kremlin's war chest.” As a part of the problem lies in the tests Brussels uses to ensure sanctions comply. According to the EU rules, cargo containing the Russian Fuels mixed with product of elsewhere “…could be subject to the sanction depending on the proportion of the Russian components.” Usually, share is defined by whether the fuel has undergone “substantial transformation” becoming an entirely new product which is not happening in the case of Turkey. A European commission spokesperson declined to comment on this case, while arguing it was up to the bloc countries “to implement and enforce EU sanctions.”
References
James Gregory and James Waterhouse,“Ukraine troops pull back in Kharkiv after Russia offensive,” BBC News, 15 May 2024
Kevin Shalvey, “US to send additional $2 billion in Ukraine aid, Blinken says,” ABCNews, 15 May 2024
Yevhen Kizilov, “ Zelenskiy: Defence Forces partially stabilised situation in Kharkiv Oblast,”15 MAY 2024
VICTOR JACK, “How Turkey became Putin’s ‘pit stop’ for selling camouflaged fuel to the EU,” Politico,15 May 2024
Tarik Cyril Amar, “Here’s why Russia’s Kharkov offensive is far more than just a military setback for Kiev,” RT, 15 May 2024
“Russian army reverses only gain of Ukrainian counteroffensive,” RT, 15 May 2024
“Putin explains why peace talks with Ukraine collapsed,” RT, 15 May 2024