Pakistan's Demographic Challenges; Pakistan-Azerbaijan Relations
In Focus
TTP dominates Pakistan's discourse again
On 11 July, in her weekly press briefing, Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch dismissed the chances of negotiations with the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In this regard, she stated, “... Pakistan has no designs of entering into any talks with a terror group that has been involved in killings of Pakistani citizens…” She was responding to a question regarding the Afghan government spokesperson’s statement that the Taliban regime was willing to “mediate” between Pakistan and the TTP. Referring to this statement, she further added that these statements “should be taken in the proper context of Pakistan’s position with regards to dialogue with TTP.” She also revealed that both countries had been engaged in discussions over terrorism “for the last several months”. Baloch elaborated on the country’s position stating “Pakistan is concerned about the terror threat that we face from individuals and entities which have support and sponsorship from across the border in Afghanistan. We respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan … We expect the Afghan authorities to uphold their sovereignty and take action against those terror groups which have found sanctuaries inside Afghanistan and are using Afghan territory to attack Pakistan.”
Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi’s briefing to the Senate Standing Committee on Interior
Separately, on the same day, Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi accepted that the decision in 2021 to release 100 jailed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants as a “goodwill gesture” was a “mistake.” Naqvi made this statement during a Senate Standing Committee on Interior meeting. He also claimed that the recent spike in terror cases in Pakistan was a culmination of this release.
In response to Naqvi’s statement, PPP Senator Shahadat Awan sought a response on who was responsible for this 2021 decision. He also asked for the identity of the released TTP prisoners and the charges that had been leveled against them. Naqvi promised to provide these details at the next meeting. Another question was raised by Senator Irfan Siddiqui regarding the fate of 5000 TTP families alleged to have been brought into Pakistan for “resettlement” in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during PTI’s term. Naqvi did not respond to this question.
15th UN Report on ISIL (Daesh) and Al-Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team
The 15th report of the ISIL (Daesh) and Al-Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team submitted to the UN Security Council has revealed that the TTP is now “the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan.” The report estimated that “around 6,000-6,500 fighters” of the TTP “enjoy the freedom to maneuver” under the Taliban regime. The report also revealed that the TTP enjoys “operational and logistical support” from the Afghan Taliban. In this regard, the report stated “The Taliban do not conceive of TTP as a terrorist group: the bonds are close, and the debt owed to TTP significant.” This lends credence to Islamabad’s allegations that the TTP enjoys free reign under the Afghan Taliban regime and that the latter is unwilling “to mitigate the TTP threat to Pakistan.”
Additionally, the report revealed that the TTP also enjoys the same support from “factions of the Al Qaeda terrorist network.” Further, the report stated that the TTP “continues to operate at a significant scale in Afghanistan and to conduct terrorist operations into Pakistan from there, often utilizing Afghans.” These details in the report substantiate Pakistan’s consistent claims that the Afghan territory is used by the TTP not only as a safe haven but to also plan and carry out cross-border attacks, including the involvement of Afghans in these attacks. The report has also confirmed Pakistan’s fears that the TTP is now in possession of “Nato-calibre weapons, especially night vision capability.” The report also highlighted that “TTP has intensified attacks against Pakistan, significantly increasing from 573 in 2021 to 715 in 2022 and 1,210 in 2023, with the trend continuing into 2024.”
On the Al Qaeda support for the TTP, the report stated that the Afghan Taliban allows “the supply of weapons and permission for training and support from Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).” In this regard, the report also noted that the “AQIS assists TTP in conducting terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, with Tehreek-i Jihad Pakistan (TJP) claiming responsibility to relieve pressure on the de facto [Afghan] authorities.” The report also confirmed the involvement of Al Qaeda fighters in the clash between the Pakistani military and Afghan fighters that took place in September 2023. The Al Qaeda support to the TTP consists of “sharing of Afghan fighters for its tashkils (in this context, military staffing or a formation) and training camps in Afghanistan. Training provided by AQIS has resulted in TTP shifting tactics and high profile attacks against hard targets.”
References
Hassan Belal Zaidi, “‘TTP now largest terror group in Afghanistan’,” Dawn, 12 July 2024;
Iftikhar A. Khan, “Pakistan again shuts door on prospects of talks with TTP,” Dawn, 12 July 2024;
Iftikhar A. Khan, “Release of TTP men was a mistake, admits interior minister,” Dawn, 12 July 2024
In Brief
JUDICIARY
PBC challenges federal decision allowing ISI to intercept citizen calls in IHC
On 11 July, the Pakistan Bar Council (PBC) challenged the decision of the federal government to allow Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to intercept citizens’ calls and messages in Islamabad High Court (IHC). The six members of the PBC who are the petitioners asked the court to declare the decision as “null and void.” The petition challenged the SRO 1005(I)/2024 which allows BS-18 or above ISI officers to “surveil citizens in the name of national security” under Section 54 of the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) Act. The petitioners argued: “Even before the promulgation of Investigation for Fair Trial Act, Section 54 of Telecom Act that empowered the federal government to intercept the calls was ultra vires as it suffered from excessive delegation, granting the federal government unbridled powers and unfettered discretion without sufficient legal and constitutional safeguards.” Similarly, on 10 July, the citizens also challenged the decision of the federal government to tap the phone calls in the Lahore High Court.
Earlier, in May 2023, Justice Babar Sattar of the IHC while hearing a case regarding audio leaks had framed a list of questions and posed them to the stakeholders questioning “which law empowered the executive to record or surveil phone calls.” (Malik Asad, “Senior lawyers challenge ISI’s surveillance powers in IHC,” Dawn, 12 July 2024)
Discourse around judges’ right to speak should be guided by “the human rights framework,” argues an opinion in Dawn
On 12 July, an opinion in Dawn titled “Can judges speak?” discussed the “most expressed belief” about the judiciary in Pakistan that is, the “judges must only speak through their judgments” and questioned its truth today. The opinion revealed that in countries like the UK, the idea that judges should not have extra-judicial talks prohibits the judges from speaking to the public. The UK accepted this for 32 years until 1987 when Lord MacKay, stated it was “difficult to reconcile with the independence of the judiciary.” International laws such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) also guarantee the right to the “freedom of the expression including judges along with the right to a fair trial.” This needs the court to be “independent and impartial.” The UN Basic Principles on the Independence of the Judiciary further supports the argument by clarifying the relationship between judges’ right to freedom of expression and the independence and impartiality of the judiciary as “in exercising such rights, judges shall always conduct themselves in such a manner as to preserve the dignity of their office and the impartiality and independence of the judiciary.” In addition, a review of international standards, regional jurisprudence, and academic literature identifies that the Judges are encouraged to not speak related to party policies and not to directly undermine the rights of litigants who “might” believe the judge to be partial.
Similarly, there are certain areas where judges do have a duty to speak as they imply unique contributions. In this regard, the Consultative Council of European Judges (CCJE), an advisory body of the Council of Europe’s recommendations are relevant, argues the opinion. Further, in such cases where judges consider it a “moral duty” to speak, the report cited a judgment by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights in ‘López Lone vs Honduras.’ In this case, the court stated that “the prohibition of judges from participating in activities of a party nature should not be interpreted … in a way that prevents judges from taking part in any discussion of a political nature.” (Reema Omer, “Can judges speak?,” Dawn, 12 July 2024)
SOCIETY
Lack of planning causes demographic challenges, argues an editorial in The News International
On 12 July, an editorial in The News International titled “Population Puzzle” highlighted Pakistan’s demographic challenges in controlling the population. The report revealed that Pakistan is the fifth-most populous country in the world with a population of over 240 million. The editorial also noted that the country’s policymakers have “a myopic view of governance.” The report further argued that the median age population of Pakistan is 20.6 years which means the country has “energetic young people” who can contribute to economic growth. However, the editorial lamented that this is “not the case” for Pakistan as it faces myriad problems when its population increases. This is mainly due to the “lack of planning by the government.” These failures in planning have resulted in people being displaced internally: from smaller towns and villages to urban cities which burdens the cities more. The editorial further states that the increase in population growth was because of the “lack of family planning.” The editorial has recommended a “coherent plan to deal with its growing population” as so far, the country has made efforts to implement family planning programs that were inconsistent. The editorial also underscored that “the investment in education” and “access to education” especially for women is the key way to curb demographic challenges. In addition, it highlighted the effective healthcare facilities in rural areas for family planning. Apart from these two (education and health), socio-economic development also plays a huge role in population control, argued the report. It suggests the need for cultural shift and political and community engagement to address the population challenge in Pakistan. (“Population puzzle,” The News International, 12 July 2024)
AF-PAK
Allowing “legal” Afghan refugees to stay in the country “a more humane choice than the problematic repatriation campaign,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 12 July, an editorial in Dawn titled “Temporary extension” commended the “humane choice” of the cabinet to allow “legal” Afghan refugees” to stay in the country. It noted that “legal” Afghan refugees, meaning those with Proof of Registration cards can stay in the country till 30 June 2025 and stressed the fact that the “reprieve is temporary” as they have to return back subsequently. The editorial highlighted that this decision will affect around 1.45 million Afghans in the country. Afghans fled from their country and the majority of them either ended up in Pakistan or used this country as a “transit point” to reach the third country. Following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has been facing a cohort of refugees and increased security concerns. The editorial emphasized that the repatriation of refugees was in response to “the militants entering the country in the guise of refugees”. The editorial also highlighted that the Afghans who worked for “Western governments or for the Karzai and Ghani administrations — particularly those who were involved in military and intelligence activities” face threats if they return. The editorial thus remarked that the countries involved should speed up the visa process or “those states that spent billions of dollars waging war in Afghanistan must now chip in and help support Afghan refugees.” (“Temporary extension,” Dawn, 12 July 2024)
Doha talks induce hope that “situation in Afghanistan will become more conducive,” says an editorial in The News International
On 12 July, an editorial in The News International titled “Afghan refugees” praised the decision of the government to allow a “one-year-extension” for PoR holder Afghan refugees and criticized the earlier decision to repatriate refugees haphazardly. The editorial also hoped that the Doha talks would ease the situation in Afghanistan. The editorial further added Pakistan’s repatriation campaign was justified earlier due to “its security concerns and the increasing cross-border terrorism.” The editorial also suggested that the elected Pakistan government “work with civil society” and all the stakeholders to bring a proper solution to this issue. It also claimed that the 44,000 Afghans who have been approved for relocation to Western countries should be expedited by the Western countries as the “whole Afghan situation is a direct result of Western interventions in the country.” The editorial also mentioned the need for the Taliban government to work together on this issue by easing the restrictions on girls’ education and basic freedoms. (“Afghan refugees,” The News International, 12 July 2024)
EXTERNAL
Enhancement of bilateral trade with Baku
On 11 July, referring to a joint deal between Pakistan and Azerbaijan, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz stated “We have discussed an initial figure of USD2bn of investment” in mutually “beneficial projects.” PM Sharif and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev addressed a joint press conference after signing fifteen memorandums of understanding and agreements. The memorandums cover issues pertaining to “Consular Affairs, transit trade, preferential trade, privatization of state property, law and justice, mineral resources, and geology, cultural exchange program from 2024 to 2029” and so on.PM Sharif is also set to visit Azerbaijan in November, where both sides would sign agreements valuing USD 2 billion. Both leaders expressed a strong commitment “to move forward and touch higher levels of achievements in the fields of trade and investment.” PM Sharif also highlighted that Pakistan has always supported Azerbaijan’s stand on Nagorno-Karabakh. President Aliyev responded similarly, “Our state's forward support on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir is our commitment to our brotherhood and also our respect to international law, the rights of Kashmiris have been ignored and violated for decades.” Concerning the climate summit COP29, which will be hosted in Baku, PM Sharif is hopeful that under Aliyev’s “wise stewardship”, “COP29 will deliver on the climate change-related issues of developing countries like Pakistan.”
(“Pakistan, Azerbaijan to expand investment up to $2bn”, Dawn, 12 July 2024; Muhammad Anis & Sales Zaafir “Islamabad, Baku agree to expand investment to $2bn”, The News International, 12 July 2024)
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"PTI is being smashed by #Pakistan's establishment in order to prevent the party from being an option for Pakistanis at the ballot box. #ImranKhan is not imprisoned for corruption, but solely because establishment fear that he and PTI will win elections"
- Sami Hamdi
Not only the Election Commission should be dissolved for completely facilitating the fraud on the mandate of Tehreek-e-Insaf, giving the reserved seats of Tehreek-e-Insaf to other parties and becoming a full-fledged party against Tehreek-e-Insaf, but they should also be prosecuted under Article 6 for flouting the constitution.
- PTI
In order to strengthen bilateral relations, there is a need to increase regular contacts between the people and businessmen of Pakistan and Azerbaijan, said the President.
- PPP
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