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By Advik S Mohan and Neha Tresa George
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 19 October, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation confirmed on swap of 95 Ukrainian soldiers for an equal number of Russian soldiers in a deal with the Government of Ukraine. The defence ministry also informed that the Government of the United Arab Emirates helped broker the exchange deal. The human rights centre Zmina informed Maksym Butkevych, a Ukrainian human rights activist and co-founder of an independent radio station was among the prisoners released during the exchange. The Ukrainian government did not confirm the hostage exchange deal. Several prisoner exchange deals between Russia and Ukraine have been agreed upon since the war, with the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia helping to broker the deals.
On 18 October, the BBC reported that the National Intelligence Service (NIS) of South Korea had warned the Government of North Korea was sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. According to the NIS, 1,500 North Korean troops had already arrived in Russia, and anonymous sources stated nearly 12,000 North Korean troops could be present in Russia. The NIS also stated that North Korean troops were training at Russian bases in Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Vlagoveshensk. Additionally, the agency released aerial photographs of North Korean troops gathered at Russian military bases. The NIS allegation added to reports from Ukrainian military intelligence sources that the Russian Armed Forces were forming a unit of North Korean soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Kyrylo Budanov, the Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine stated nearly 11,000 North Korean infantry troops were training in Russia to fight in Ukraine from 01 November. The Office of the President of South Korea informed a security meeting to discuss the new threat was attended by officials from the Ministry of National Defence of South Korea, the NIS, and the National Security Office of South Korea.
On 18 October, the Associated Press stated that the Government of the Russian Federation had returned the bodies of 501 dead soldiers to Ukraine. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War in Ukraine stated that most of the soldiers were killed in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, and the victims will be identified by law enforcement agencies and forensic experts. The repatriation came amidst discussions between the Government of Ukraine and its Western allies over the viability of a proposed peace plan by the Ukrainian government. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia stated Russia was ready to engage in peace talks with Ukraine.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims from Russia
On 19 October, RT reported on Putin’s statement on the Government of the Russian Federation's interest in only a lasting peace with Ukraine and not a short-lived truce. Putin informed during a meeting with the heads of media agencies from the BRICS countries that the goal of Russia was to ensure its long-term security interests. Putin stated a temporary ceasefire would provide NATO countries which supported Ukraine with the opportunity to rearm and restock ammunition. The Russian president also stated Russia wanted to resolve the war in Ukraine through peaceful means and achieve conditions for a long-term, sustainable, and lasting peace that provided equal security for all participants.
On 18 October, RT reported that Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia said that the Government of the Russian Federation would never allow the Government of Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons. Putin stated that any attempt by Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons was a provocation which would be met by an appropriate reaction from Russia. According to Putin, the political leadership in Ukraine had repeatedly expressed a desire to obtain nuclear weapons, although he also stated it might be difficult for Ukraine to acquire a nuclear arsenal. Putin also warned that the Government of the Russian Federation would be able to track down if any other country like the UK provided atomic weapons to Ukraine.
On 18 October, RT reported on Putin’s statement on the prospective location for a summit to end the Ukraine conflict. Putin informed that the Government of the Russian Federation viewed Saudi Arabia as a friendly country. He also stated Russia would view Saudi Arabia as a comfortable venue if a peace summit were to be held there. Additionally, Putin praised the Government of Saudi Arabia for their sincere effort to bring about peace in Ukraine. Putin also stated that any final peace settlement for the Ukraine conflict should be based on the draft prepared during negotiations in Istanbul in 2022. According to Putin, Ukraine withdrew from negotiations after it approved of a draft treaty making it a neutral country and reducing the size of its army.
On 19 October, the TASS informed the Government of the Russian Federation had appreciated Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany for his readiness to discuss a political solution to the war in Ukraine. Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation stated the readiness of Scholz for dialogue with Russia was an important signal that Russia welcomed. Peskov also stated Putin remained open to communication and talks. However, Peskov also stated Russia had not received any concrete proposals over peace talks or to organize contacts with Putin from Germany or any other Western countries so far. According to the spokesperson, the process of dialogue was not easy but all wars ended in peace eventually.
On 20 October, RT reported on the destruction of more than 100 Ukrainian drones over the Russian region. According to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, the attack used an aircraft-type UAV to target facilities in several areas of Russia. A report from Reuters suggests that Ukraine had targeted an explosives plant along with a storage facility in the Lipetsk region. The plant located deep inside Russia was one of its kind, subject to several sanctions from the US and the EU. Ukraine was still assessing the damage inflicted by its attack. Meanwhile, the Russian Air defences intercepted 110 UAVs over the Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Nizhny Novgorod, Belgorod, Bryansk and Moscow regions. According to Gleb Nikitin, the governor of Nizhny Novgorod region, the attack aimed to target an industrial zone. He added that it caused several injuries to four firefighters.
On 20 October, The Moscow Times reported on the conversation between Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President and Aleksandar Vucic, Serbian President regarding Serbia’s participation in the BRICS summit this week. It was the first time they engaged in two and a half years. Serbia had refused to sanction Russia, thus maintaining a close relationship. However, since the Ukrainian invasion, it has limited its bilateral talks with Russia. Following the conversation, Vucic said: “I particularly thanked President Putin for ensuring that Russia will provide sufficient quantities of gas for Serbia this winter.” He assured that Serbia would refrain from imposing sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that the leaders put forth the bilateral relations based on “spiritual, cultural and historical commonalities.” It added that the situation in Ukraine was also discussed.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 October, Radio Free Liberty reported on the Government of France's promise to support the prospective victory plan by the Government of Ukraine in the war against Russia. Jean-Noel Barrot, the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France announced support during a visit to Kyiv. Barrot stated Ukrainians were not only fighting to protect their territorial integrity but also to hold a front line for freedom against oppression. The foreign minister also stated a victory for Russia in the war was against the international order, and it was essential for the potential victory plan by Ukraine to receive support from the greatest possible number of countries. Additionally, Barrot announced plans by the French government to deliver the first batch of Mirage 2000 combat jets to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025, with Ukrainian pilots and mechanics being trained to fly and maintain the aircraft.
On 19 October, ABC News informed the Government of Romania scrambled fighter jets for the second time this week in response to a second breach of its airspace in a week. The Ministry of Defence of Romania informed an unidentified object was detected over the Black Sea moving toward Romania in the early hours of 19 October. The defence ministry also informed two F-16 jets from the Romanian Air Force and two F-18 jets from the Spanish Air Force were dispatched in response to the breach but failed to spot the target. Jets from the two air forces were dispatched earlier too in response to the first breach of airspace in the week. Romania has made repeated complaints over incursions into Romanian airspace by Russian drones, with fragments of Russian drones found on Romanian territory near the Ukrainian border.
On 19 October, The Northlines informed David Lammy, the Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Affairs of the United Kingdom had urged the Government of the People’s Republic of China to curb its support for the Russian Armed Forces during the Ukraine war. Lammy made the remarks during meetings with Wang Yi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, and Ding Xuexiang, the Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China while on a visit to China. Lammy urged Chinese leaders to take steps to ensure that no Chinese firms supplied equipment to the Russian military. Lammy stated that such activities undermined China’s relationships with its European partners and lent legitimacy to the aggression engaged in by Russia. During the visit, Lammy and Wang also affirmed the shared interests of both their countries towards peace in Europe.
On 19 October, Politico reported on the statements made by Andrii Sybiha and Jean-Noël Barrot, the Ukrainian and French foreign ministers. They responded to the alleged deployment of North Korean troops in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Sybiha pointed out that deployment would result in a “huge” escalation risk, Barrot said it could “push the conflict into a new stage, an additional escalatory stage.” This came in response to the accusations put forth by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine against North Korea of “preparing to send soldiers” to help Moscow in the war. He cited the South Korean National Intelligence Service which claimed that North Korea had deployed 1500 special forces troops to Russia. However, both the Kremlin and Pyongyang had denied these accusations. Mark Rutte, NATO’s Secretary General also said that he could not confirm the reports of North Koreans engaging in the war. Barrot further said that he would support Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan to end the war.
On 21 October, The Guardian reported on the statements of Maia Sandu, Moldova’s President on the EU referendum being held in the country. She condemned the “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy” by “foreign forces” against the backdrop of Moldova’s presidential election and an EU referendum, which will decide the fate of Sandu’s pursuit to join the alliance. She said that firm decisions would be taken following the results. The allegations against Moscow ranged from funding pro-Kremlin opposition groups, interfering in the local elections and supporting a vote-buying scheme. Among the 84 per cent of the votes counted in the referendum, 53 per cent were no vote. However, the results could still change as votes are yet to be counted. In the presidential election, Sandu was ahead with about 38 per cent of votes. She was set to face Alexandr Stoianoglo, her closest competitor supported by pro-Russian socialists. According to the pre-election survey results, Sandu held the lead in the polls while 60 per cent of voters supported the EU accession.
On 21 October, Politico reported that the EU countries were looking forward to resume talks to push sanctions on Russia. Poland, acquiring the EU presidency from Hungary in the coming January had indicated its aim to tighten sanctions on Russia’s fuels coming into the EU. Krzysztof Bolesta, Poland’s minister for climate and environment said: “The imports of Russian energy are growing. This is a bad sign. We need to address that.” The EU diplomats hope that Poland will reassess and renew the loopholes in the sanctions. They are also looking forward for Poland to bring the Russian issues to the forefront.
On 20 October, Bloomberg reported on the statements made by Choe Son Hui, North Korean Foreign minister on a new US-led sanctions monitoring team. It consisted of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand the UK, the US, South Korea and Japan. He said that the team was ‘unlawful and illegitimate” and warned that these countries would have to pay a price for working against North Korea. This was in response to the US’s announcements to monitor the sanctions enforcement on North Korea after Russia vetoed the monitoring by a UN panel. The US also pledged to counter the threats from North Korea’s ballistic missile program and its weapons of mass destruction.
On 20 October, The Guardian reported on the statements made by Andrei Kelin, Russian ambassador to London, accusing UK’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He said that the UK was engaging in a “proxy war” with Ukraine by providing weapons to kill Russian soldiers and civilians. He added that although Ukraine was fighting back, its defence was becoming “more feeble and feeble.” He highlighted Russia’s gain and said that “the end of this phase would mean the end of Ukraine.” These comments came against the backdrop of Zelenskyy’s continuous appeal to Western countries for air defence systems in the light of Russia’s attack on the city of Kryvyi Rih. The attack had injured almost 17 people.
References
“190 prisoners freed under Russia- Ukraine exchange deal,” Firstpost, 19 October 2024
“Over 100 Ukrainian drones downed in Russia overnight – MOD,” RT, 20 October 2024
Kelly Ng, “N Korea sends troops to fight with Russia: Seoul,” BBC, 18 October 2024
“North Korean troops in Ukraine war called ‘huge’ escalation risk,” Politico, 19 October 2024
“After Orbán, EU eyes new Russia sanctions push,” Politico, 19 October 2024
“Ukraine strikes key Russian explosives manufacturer,” Reuters, 20 October 2024
“North Korea Calls New US-Led Sanctions Monitoring Team Unlawful,” Bloomberg, 20 October 2024
“’Difficult’ to say when Ukraine conflict will end -Putin,” RT, 18 October 2024
“Putin warns Ukraine about nuclear weapons,” RT, 18 October 2024
“Kremlin welcomes Scholz’s readiness for dialogue with Putin,” TASS, 19 October 2024
“Ukraine peace ‘must be lasting’- Putin,” RT, 19 October 2024
“Putin names possible location for peace talks,” RT, 18 October 2024
“France Pledges Support for Ukraine’s ‘Victory Plan’,” RadioFreeEurope RadioLiberty, 19 October 2024
“Romania scrambles fighter jets second time this week over breach of airspace,” ABC News, 19 October 2024
“UK Foreign Secretary Urges China to Curb Support for Russian Military,” The Northlines, 19 October 2024
Illia Novikov, “Russia returns 500 dead soldiers to Ukraine as world leaders mull next steps,” AP News, 18 October 2024
“Moldova president condemns ‘assault’ on democracy by ‘foreign forces’ as EU vote hangs in balance,” The Guardian, 21 October 2024
“Serbian President Speaks to Putin for First Time in 2.5 Years – Presidency,” The Moscow Times, 21 October 2024
“Ukraine drones target key Russian explosive manufacturer, Moscow,” Arab news, 20 October 2024
“Russian ambassador accuses UK of waging proxy war in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 20 October 2024
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