Photo : AP
Photo : AP
By Samruddhi Pathak
WAR ON GROUND
On 19 December, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced that Ukraine will not allow any transition of Russian gas from 01 January 2025. The statement was made after Zelensky met with other leaders of the EU. The ban will apply to any gas flow coming from Russia since Russian gas is being sold to Europe under the false label of Azerbaijan-made gas. This has led to tensions between Ukraine and Slovakia because Slovakia is highly dependent on Russian gas for energy. Every year, Slovakia imports three billion cubic metres from Gazprom, Russia's gas monopoly, covering most of its domestic demand. However, Slovakia might resort to gas from Azerbaijan but it would be a controversial alternative due to Azerbaijan's poor human rights record. It is a concern for Ukraine since Russia supplies gas to Ukraine labelled as "Azeri gas" while Azerbaijan buys from Russia labelled as "Russian gas" using the same infrastructure. Thus, the EU indirectly buys Russian gas from Azerbaijan. However, Zelensky has said that Ukraine would allow the transit of Russian gas if the European buyer agreed not to pay Russia until the war ended.
On 19 December, Zelensky held a press conference and asked for cooperation from the US and the EU to achieve durable peace. Donald Trump, the newly elected President of the US, has promised to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Trump has also stated that he might withdraw support from Ukraine. There is a fear among European leaders that Trump might cut his support for Ukraine and NATO as well. Zelensky said it would be very difficult for Europe alone to support Ukraine without US involvement. On the other side, the collapse of Assad’s government in Syria has also led to rise in security concerns and shifted the focus back to the Middle Eastern region. Alexander De Croo, the Prime Minister of Belgium, said the EU needed to “engage with the HTS, show that we are ready to provide a maximum of humanitarian support and try to stabilise the situation.” The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has calculated that without new US aid packages, the West's total military aid next year could drop from a projected EUR 59 billion to EUR 34 billion.
On 19 December, Lee Sung-kwon, a member of the parliament in South Korea, said that at least 100 North Korean soldiers have died so far during the war in Ukraine while more than 1,000 have been injured. In October, some media house reports claimed that North Korea had sent more than 10,000 soldiers to Ukraine to fight for Russia. The US Pentagon report has confirmed that North Korean soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, however, the number has not been specified. The casualties are recorded to have occurred in Russia's Kursk region where Ukrainians are defending a small area of territory captured in August.
On 19 December, Zelensky called Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban to suggest a Christmas ceasefire. He also proposed a large-scale prisoner exchange. Zelensky called the prisoner exchange proposal a ‘Political PR.’ He also said that Ukraine will only enter into a ceasefire agreement if it has security guarantees. Zelensky also said, “The ultimate security guarantee would be NATO membership.” He also emphasised the role of the US in ensuring Ukraine a NATO membership. Zelenskyy also called for more air defence systems, to protect nuclear plants and other energy infrastructure that Russia is deliberately targeting. He also listed fighter jets, missiles, ammunition and other weapons as desperately needed.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 19 December, President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, held his annual year-end press conference. He said that Russia had accomplished its mission in Syria and was winning the war in Ukraine. He said that he is ready for potential talks with President Trump. He also expects that the new administration in Washington will push for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. Putin also mentioned the capability of the Oreshnik, a new nuclear-capable ballistic missile that Russia recently fired at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Putin also said that he had no conditions for starting talks with the Ukrainian authorities to end the war. In November Putin was open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Trump, but ruled out making any major territorial concessions and insisted Kyiv abandon its ambitions to join NATO. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s term has already expired as the President but he has postponed the elections. Thus, currently Zelensky is not a legitimate authority to sign ceasefire agreements. Putin has ruled out any possibility of temporary truce, saying he only seeks permanent peace solutions.
On 19 December, North Korea’s foreign ministry issued a statement, accusing 10 countries and the European Union of “distorting and slandering” its cooperative ties with Moscow. North Korea called it “reckless provocation.” Australia, Canada and Germany described North Korea’s growing involvement in Ukraine as a “dangerous expansion of the conflict.” Since the war started in February 2022, North Korea and Russia have deepened their military and strategic ties. North Korea justifies that it has the sovereign right to strengthen its cooperation with Russia. North Korea claims it was making “crucial efforts to preserve regional and global peace and security.”
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 December, Defence Secretary of the UK, John Healey, met Rustem Umerov, the Defence Minister of Ukraine, and announced five principles for UK’s support to Ukraine. The UK promised to offer more training to Ukrainian soldiers. The package announced by the Defence Secretary will increase Ukraine’s military capability with new maritime drones, boats, air defence systems and counter-drone systems. The new package includes EUR 92 million for equipment to enhance Ukraine’s naval capabilities, including small boats, reconnaissance drones, uncrewed surface vessels, loitering munitions, and mine countermeasure drones, directly supporting the maritime coalition co-led by the UK and Norway. EUR 68 million for air defence equipment including radars, decoy land equipment, and counter-drone electronic warfare systems. EUR 26 million to provide support and spare parts for critical systems. EUR 39 million to provide more than 1,000 counter-drone electronic warfare systems and for joint-procurement of respirators and equipment to enhance the protective capabilities of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
On 19 December, Chancellor of the Federation of Germany, Olaf Scholz, in a speech at a German-Ukrainian business forum said, “If you invest in Ukraine today and in the coming years, you are investing in a future EU member.” He also informed that German trade with Ukraine had grown from some EUR eight billion in 2021 to almost EUR 10 billion in 2023 and around 2,000 German companies were active in Ukraine. Denys Shmygal, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, said "the role of private business is key" in the rebuilding of the country. Germany has been Ukraine's second biggest military backer after the US. The German Federation has supplied Kyiv with a total of EUR 37 billion in aid since the start of the war. However, the future of German support is still uncertain since snap elections in Germany are due to 23 February. Scholz also called Trump to discuss western allies’ unity for support to Ukraine.
References
“UK leadership on Ukraine continues as Defence Secretary announced £225m support package during Kyiv visit,” Ministry of Defence, 19 December 2024
“Zelensky says Trump and EU must work together to ‘stop Putin and save Ukraine’,” France24, 19 December 2024
Anna Chernova, Nathan Hodge and Sophie Tanno, “Putin says he’s ‘ready’ for potential talks with Trump during year-end news conference,” CNN, 19 December 2024
“Putin says ready to compromise with Trump on Ukraine war,” France24, 19 December 2024
“Germany's Scholz urges investment in 'future EU member' Ukraine,” France24, 19 December 2024
Gisselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, “Scholz calls Trump during EU leaders’ summit to talk Ukraine,” Politico, 19 December 2024
Alice Tidey and Aida Sanchez, “Hungarian Christmas ceasefire deal is 'political PR', Zelenskyy says, as he calls for more weapons,” Euronews, 19 December 2024
Robert Greenall, “At least 100 North Koreans dead in Ukraine war, says South,” BBC, 19 December 2024
Jorge Liboreiro, “Ukraine will not allow transit of Russian gas with Azeri label, Zelenskyy says, dashing Slovak hope,” Euronews, 19 December 2024