Photo : Julia Kochetova/The Guardian
Photo : Julia Kochetova/The Guardian
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 11 February, in an interview with The Guardian, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Europe cannot provide effective security guarantees for Ukraine without the US. He emphasized that security measures lacking US support would not be sufficient, especially with key systems like the Patriot air defence, which only the US can provide. Zelenskyy’s comments come as he prepares for significant diplomatic talks, including meetings with US officials at the Munich Security Conference and potentially with President Donald Trump. Zelenskyy has also highlighted the potential for US companies to engage in the reconstruction of Ukraine and exploit its vast natural resources, such as uranium and titanium, which he views as critical for both security and economic reasons. In his efforts to secure continued US support, Zelenskyy offered access to Ukraine's valuable resources, which he argues would prevent them from falling into the hands of adversaries like Russia, China, or Iran. However, Zelenskyy is also cautious about Trump's approach, especially as Trump’s statements have been inconsistent, with some suggesting that Europe should bear the responsibility of maintaining peace after a ceasefire. Zelenskyy is wary of this, stressing that any peacekeeping mission would need to involve significant guarantees, including American backing. As the diplomatic landscape shifts, Zelenskyy remains focused on ensuring Ukraine’s survival through continued US support, despite the challenges posed by political uncertainty. Zelenskyy also proposed territory exchange in case of negotiation with Russia. He said that Ukraine would exchange the captured area of Kursk for Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.
On 11 February, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers introduced a one-year military contract system for volunteers aged 18 to 24, with a potential annual income of up to UAH two million. This initiative aims to attract motivated citizens by offering them the opportunity to choose their position and brigade, receive intensive training, and access competitive financial and social benefits. Volunteers will also receive one-time payments, a monthly salary, combat bonuses, housing compensation, and the chance to apply for a zero per cent mortgage after their service. The program includes additional perks like state-funded higher education upon completion of the contract and the right to travel abroad afterward. Volunteers will also be exempt from mobilization for 12 months after discharge. To apply, candidates must submit an application through the official platform or the "Reserve+" app. This initiative is part of Ukraine’s effort to build a professional army by offering career growth opportunities and fair service conditions.
On 11 February, Ukrinform reported on the UN report on casualty rate in Ukraine. According to the report, in January 2025, short-range drones caused more civilian casualties in Ukraine than any other weapon, with at least 139 civilians killed and 738 injured. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), drones were responsible for 27 per cent of civilian deaths and 30 per cent of injuries, often targeting people in cars, buses, or on foot. The majority of these casualties occurred in Ukrainian-controlled areas, particularly in Kherson, where drones caused 70 per cent of civilian casualties along the Dnipro River. Other affected regions included Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. The HRMMU reported a significant increase in drone-related civilian casualties in 2024, especially during the second half of the year. Despite the use of onboard cameras intended to distinguish civilians from military targets, the drones continue to cause alarming harm to non-combatants. Daniel Bell, head of the HRMMU, highlighted the deadly nature of short-range drones, which have become one of the most dangerous threats to civilians in frontline areas. The mission also documented 79 cases of executions of captured Ukrainian soldiers by Russian forces in 2024.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 11 February, Russian forces claimed launching a combined missile attack on gas production facilities in Ukraine's Poltava Oblast, firing 19 missiles of various types, including air, land, and sea-based cruise, ballistic, and guided missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force are yet to clarify the damage and the specific missile types used. In addition to the missile strikes, Russia also deployed 124 Shahed-type drones and other imitator drones from multiple locations, targeting several Ukrainian regions. Ukrainian defence forces, including aviation, anti-aircraft units, electronic warfare systems, and mobile fire groups, responded to the attack. Ukrainian forces claimed countering 57 drones across Kharkiv, Poltava, Kyiv areas. The Russian assault caused significant damage to Naftogaz Group's production facilities in the Poltava, and also affected other regions, including Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 11 February, Republican Congressman Joe Wilson introduced a new bill, H.R.1158, in the US House of Representatives to expand the president's authority to provide military assistance to Ukraine through a lend-lease program. The proposed legislation would allow the US president to enter into agreements with Ukraine to lend or lease defence articles to help protect civilians from the Russian military invasion and for other purposes. This initiative, similar to the lend-lease program during World War II, aims to support Ukraine in ending the war. Wilson expressed confidence that US President Donald Trump would take decisive actions toward this goal. While Congress first approved a lend-lease program for Ukraine in May 2022, the Biden administration chose alternative mechanisms for military support without repayment requirements.
On 11 February, Bloomberg reported on US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent upcoming visit to Ukraine this week to meet Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, focusing on discussions related to rare earth minerals and efforts to resolve the war. This visit comes shortly after President Donald Trump expressed interest in a deal with Ukraine to secure access to critical resources in exchange for support in Ukraine's defence against Russia’s invasion. Bessent’s trip marks the first time a member of Trump's cabinet will visit Ukraine. Trump confirmed the visit but did not specify whether it would involve discussions on mineral access. President Zelensky previously proposed offering the US access to Ukraine's rare earth resources, including its vast uranium and titanium reserves, in return for security guarantees and financial support. He warned that it would not benefit the US if these valuable resources were controlled by Russia, North Korea, China, or Iran.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War
On 11 February, South Korea's defence ministry reported that North Korea had sent approximately 200 long-range artillery pieces to Russia in support of its war against Ukraine. Additionally, it has already provided around 11,000 troops, missiles, and substantial ammunition to Russia, with more military aid expected. There are concerns that North Korea may continue to supply Russia with more troops, weapons, and ammunition in the future. The ministry also highlighted North Korea's ongoing weapons development program, which is set to advance in the final year of its five-year plan, focusing on nuclear-powered submarines, spy satellites, and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The ministry further noted that North Korea might seek technological assistance from Russia, particularly in areas such as nuclear-powered submarines and ICBM atmospheric re-entry technology. In terms of relations with the United States, the ministry suggested that North Korea appears to be trying to create favorable conditions for potential talks with Washington, although it has responded to US President Donald Trump's intentions to reengage by conducting missile tests and revealing Kim Jong-un's visit to a nuclear-material production base.
References
Shaun Walker, “Zelenskyy: Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America,” The Guardian, 11 February 2025
“Zelensky says what he could offer Putin at negotiations,” Ukrinform, 11 February 2025
“In January, drones cause more civilian casualties in Ukraine than any other weapon – UN,” Ukrinform, 11 February 2025
“Ukraine's defense minister: One-year contracts approved for volunteers aged 18-24,” Ukrinform, 11 February 2025
“Russians fire 19 missiles at gas production facilities in Poltava region – Air Force,” Ukrinform, 11 February 2025
“New Ukraine lend-lease bill introduced in U.S. Congress,” Ukrinform, 11 February 2025
“Treasury’s Bessent to Visit Kyiv as Trump Seeks Minerals,” Bloomberg, 11 February 2025
Lee Minji, “N. Korea sent 200 long-range artillery pieces to Russia; additional supply likely: Seoul,” Yonhap News Agency, 11 February 2025