Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan over multiple issues I Diamer Basha protests continue
PR Explainer
PM Sharif’s Visit to Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan: Connectivity, Defence, Energy and Politics
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
What happened?
On 23 February, PM Shehbaz Sharif visited Azerbaijan for two-day official visit which was followed by his visit to Uzbekistan. Azerbaijan and Pakistan have agreed to increase “bilateral investment” to USD two billion. With Uzbekistan, Pakistan expressed its ambition to increase bilateral trade engagement to USD two billion.
On 4 March, PM Sharif formulated a committee which would be headed by Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar that will make sure that the signed MoUs with Azerbaijan are enacted speedily.
During PM Sharif’s visit to Azerbaijan, four MoUs were inked between Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization, Pakistan State Oil and Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic. One of the MoUs signed is regarding the Machike-Thailan-Tarujabba White Oilpipeline project which will link Machike in Punjab to Tarujabba in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The project is expected to supplement the oil pipeline which runs from Karachi to Peshawar. With the commencing of the pipeline project, it is anticipated that it would bring down the cost of transportation and curb environment pollution. In addition to that, the 427 km pipeline would enable seamless supply of petroleum derived products from Karachi to Peshawar.
With Uzbekistan, an MoU was inked between Lahore and Bukhara was formulating “twin-city relations.” The two countries also signed agreement which would enhance news collaboration among Associated Press of Pakistan and National Information Agency of Uzbekistan. Both sides also agreed for establishing Pakistan-Uzbekistan High-Level Strategic Council. Further, the two sides inked agreements to cooperate in science, technology, and innovation.
What is the background?
First, Pakistan’s trade relations with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. The volume of trade between Pakistan and Azerbaijan in 2024 amounted to USD 22 million, an increase of USD 4.9 million from the previous year. The increase in trade could be attributed to the 15 MoUs inked between the two countries during President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Pakistan in July 2024. Bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and Uzbekistan surpassed USD 400 million in 2024. Pakistan primarily exports rice, finished garments, meat, and sports gear to Uzbekistan while it imports chemical fertilizers, vegetables and cotton yarn. In 2023, both countries had inked USD one billion bilateral trade deal to increase their cooperation in tourism sector, textile, banking, oil and natural resources and enhance cultural engagement.
Second, Pakistan’s search to increase connectivity with Uzbekistan. Pakistan discussed its interest in starting the railway line which would connect the two countries and would go through Afghanistan. The two countries had earlier agreed upon the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway line project in 2023. Also, flights have started to operate between Tashkent and Lahore. Both the countries are also looking to start new flight routes between Samarkand, Bukhara and Karachi. The two countries have also agreed upon visa exemption for diplomats and people working in military intelligence, internal affairs and who are engaged in professional and technical training.
Third, the Afghanistan factor in Pakistan’s relations with Uzbekistan. Peace and stability in Afghanistan are extremely crucial for Pakistan’s projects with Uzbekistan to prove fruitful. Pakistan’s ties with the Taliban has been a major irritant with its relations with Uzbekistan. Taliban in Afghanistan was seen as a security threat to Uzbekistan, given Taliban’s opposition to Uzbek groups in Afghanistan. Pakistan and Uzbekistan also face the threat from the presence of Islamic State in the Central Asia and Afghanistan. Other militant groups such as Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Islamic Jihad Union who are given refuge in Afghanistan are seen as security concerns by both the countries. As a result, investors are reluctant to infuse funds in projects which could possibly be targeted by the militant groups in future.
Fourth, defence cooperation between Pakistan and Azerbaijan. After Azerbaijan’s largest weapon supplier- Russia got involved in the Ukraine war and its prime rival- Armenia looked to strengthen defense ties with India, Azerbaijan turned to Pakistan for diversifying its arm purchase. In 2024, Pakistan and Azerbaijan inked an arms agreement worth USD 1.6 billion. Under this accord, Pakistan agreed to supply JF-17 Thunder Block III fighters to Azerbaijan.
Fifth, political support for each other’s positions on India and Armenia. Azerbaijan has continually backed Pakistan’s stance on the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir with India. Azerbaijan was a part of the Islamabad declaration (2021) along with Turkiye that voiced distress over India allegedly amending the status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019. The declaration demanded for a peaceful resolution to the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir as per UN Security Council resolutions. Pakistan, too supported Azerbaijan’s claim over Nagorno-Karabakh region which is in contention with Armenia. The Islamabad declaration also called for ceasing of Azerbaijan-Armenia clash. It reiterated the call to respect the sovereignty of Azerbaijan over its territory as per UN Security council resolution.
What does it mean?
First, the MoUs signed with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan might not necessarily translate into increase in trade volume. Pakistan is likely to experience an increase in water shortages which would impact the exports of agricultural products to the two countries.
Second, the resurgence of Tehreek-e-Taliban in Pakistan is likely to impede the construction of railway line project with Uzbekistan. Also, it would be very difficult for Islamabad and Tashkent to increase people to people contact, given a surge in numbers of illegal migration emancipating from Pakistan.
References:
“In PM’s Baku visit, Pakistan and Azerbaijan vow boosting bilateral investment to $2bn,” Dawn, 24 February 2025
“Pakistan and Uzbekistan agree to expand bilateral trade to $2bn,” Dawn, 26 February 2025
Dilan Pamuk, “Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan issue joint declaration,” AA, 14 January 2021
“PM Shehbaz forms Dar-led body for ‘early realisation’ of accords with Azerbaijan,” Dawn, 4 March 2025
“$1billion trade deal signed with Uzbekistan,” The Express Tribune, 24 February 2023
In Focus
AF PAK
Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan over multiple issues
On 9 March, tribal elders and traders on both sides of the Torkham border met. The meeting took place at Torkham border’s “Zero Point transit terminal.” The two sides delved into discussions on bringing peace at the border which continued for more than four hours. Skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan troops resulted in closure of the Torkham border. The two sides deliberated on “reconstruction and renovation” of the contested “border post” which falls under Afghan territory. The jirga members would examine the contested check-post. If it comes under Pakistan’s territory, the Afghan government has to put an end to its construction. As per the jirga members from the Pakistani side, they had received authorization from the government for meeting their counterparts. The Pakistani delegation informed their Afghan counterparts that Pakistan fully complied with “agreed protocols” unlike Afghanistan which at multiple “occasions” breached many protocols. The members of the jirga would attempt to persuade their respective governments for keeping aside the “security and political issues” to make sure that the closure of the Torkham border comes to an end. The members of the jirga from Afghanistan asked for time to deliver the “message” to Kabul and Jalalabad. Pakistani members of the jirga informed their counterparts that Pakistan would put an end to closure of Torkham border only if the Taliban government ceased the “reconstruction of their check-post.”
On 10 March, The News International reported on the Afghan refugees staying in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Most of the Afghan refugees in Pakistan reside in KP. They have been given a deadline of 31 March 2025 to leave Pakistan. There are a total of 21 lakh Afghan refugees who are “documented” and currently reside in Pakistan. There are a large number of “undocumented” Afghan refugees who have been residing in the country for many years. A huge chunk of them returned to Afghanistan in 2023 “under voluntary repatriation plan.” 13 lakh of the total 21 lakh Afghan refugees in Pakistan have “proof of registration cards.” 52 per cent of those refugees reside in KP as per UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). As per the spokesperson of UNHCR, close to 8 lakh Afghans have got Afghan Citizen Cards and most of them reside in KP. Peshawar in KP has the highest number of Afghan refugees in comparison to other cities in Pakistan. There are also a huge number of children who were born in Pakistan to Afghan refugee parents and have never been to Afghanistan.
On the same day, Dawn reported on International Narcotics Control Board’s (INCB) warning on the surge in production of methamphetamine in Afghanistan. As per INCB, the production could have an adverse impact on Afghanistan’s neighboring countries. In 2023, Pakistan confiscated 11.4 tonnes of drugs. This number was 4.4 tonnes in 2022. In 2022, Pakistan confiscated 589.1 kg of “crystal methamphetamine.” In 2022, this number was 86.7 kg. In Turkey, confiscation of methamphetamine increased by 35.5 per cent in 2023 in comparison to 2022. There is a high possibility that the methamphetamine which comes to Turkiye either is smuggled through Iran or Afghanistan. As per the INCB report, a ban imposed by the Taliban government on drug production does not seem to be working. The confiscation of methamphetamine continues to see a surge in neighboring countries of Afghanistan. INCB saw the surge in “spread of illicit synthetic drugs” as a serious problem and it poses a “serious threat” to “public health.” It further urged for an overarching plan to combat the illegal production, supply and "consumption" of synthetic drugs through “public-private partnerships.” (Ibrahim Shinwari, “Jirga sets forth terms for Torkham peace,” Dawn, 10 March 2025; Ashrafuddin Pirzada, “Jirga agrees on ceasefire to end border tension in Torkham,” The News International, 10 March 2025; Javed Aziz Khan, “KP hosts most of over 2.1m Afghan refugees,” The News International, 10 March 2025; Amin Ahmed, “Afghan meth poses ‘challenge for neighbours,’” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
In Focus
POLITICS
Diamer Basha protests continue
On 9 March, demonstrations against the Diamer Basha dam continued despite a meeting held between a government committee and the protestors in Chilas to address the affected people’s concerns. Those affected by the dam project have presented a 31-point charter of demands calling for allotment of agricultural land and rehabilitation among other issues. During the meeting, Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs Amir Muqam promised that their interests are the government’s top priority. A financial package will be provided to affected households to cover their basic and infrastructural needs. A representative of the protestors called on the committee to announce the demands will be fulfilled and provide a written assurance for the same. Once this is done, the people apprised that their “demands have been solved” so the sitting can be called off, he added. However, after the meeting, sources reported by Dawn indicated that the protests were not called off by the organizers despite intervention from Gilgit Baltistan ministers. (Jamil Nagri, “Diamer protest continues despite govt cajoling,” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
PM Sharif constitutes committee to investigate Port Qasim land lease
On 9 March, a report in The Express Tribune highlighted that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has constituted a committee to probe into the financial irregularities in the leasing of Port Qasim Authority (PQA) Land. This comes as Senator Faisal Vawda claimed that the land was rented out for inexpensive sums. According to a notification from the PM’s office, the land was allocated for small and medium industrial parks. Hence, the committee will be tasked to examine the PQA’s legal procedure for cancelling the lease, the factors that led the PQA board to an out-of-court settlement with the claimant as well as the legal opinions that supported the settlement. Furthermore, the committee will determine if the authority evaluated the land value and whether the market prices were considered before arriving at the settlement offer decision. (“PM forms committee to probe Port Qasim land scandal,”The Express Tribune, 9 March 2025)
SOCIETY
In another case of Vani, father kills himself after forced to give up his daughter
On 7 March, a barber from Dera Ismail Khan named Adil committed suicide after his 11-year-old daughter was taken away in Vani. This led to outrage among the locals of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as they called for speedy justice in the incident that took place in Bhagwani Shumali area. In this regard, two suspects were taken into custody on the orders of the Dera regional police, and the girl was recovered from the accused. An audio message recorded by Adil revealed that his nephew was allegedly in contact with the daughter of Farid, one of the influential figures in the Shumali area. It was viewed as an insult by the latter’s father. Hence, Adil was abducted through Malik Inayatullah and taken to their hujra. He was presented before a panchayat, where he was assaulted and forced into signing a paper to give up his daughter to Vani as atonement. However, the accused made Adil pay a sum of PKR 700,000 in compensation, earlier. (“Dera man dies by suicide after panchayat decision in Vani case,” Dawn, 10 March 2025; Qayyum Nawaz Babar, “Man commits suicide after 11-year-old daughter declared Vani,” The News International, 10 March 2025)
ECONOMY
On cotton production decline:
“The cash-strapped government seems both unwilling and unable to invest in encouraging cotton production,” argues an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 10 March, an editorial titled “Costly imported cotton,” in The Express Tribune highlighted the upcoming cotton production crisis, a commodity which forms the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. Statistical figures reveal a near 50 per cent shortfall in cotton production when assessed against official targets, marking a 34 per cent yearly decline. A major factor that led to this is the decline in domestic cotton cultivation, which has recorded a historical low production level. Punjab has witnessed a dramatic decline in total production at 5.525 million bales this season compared to 7.9 million in the previous one. The farmers of Sindh have sought to shift towards sugarcane farming as it is a lucrative business. However, sugarcane holds “less potential for value addition by other economic sectors.” This realignment poses a risk to an industry already dealing with adverse weather conditions and market policies that subsidize imports while taxing locally produced goods. In the bigger picture, the production decline will have a ripple effect that will threaten jobs and reduce income for several individuals of the agro-based economy. (“Costly imported cotton,” The Express Tribune, 10 March 2025)
SECURITY
Maulana Fazlur Rehman visits Darul Uloom Haqqania, condemns the recent suicide attack
On 10 March, Dawn reported on JUI-F head Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s visit to Darul Uloom Haqqania, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which recently witnessed suicide bombing. In his speech, Fazlur Rehman condemned the attack and stated that “killing of Muslims and religious scholars is not jihad, but militancy.” Targeting the proscribed militant organizations which are involved in killing innocent citizens he said: “you are murderers, ruthless, criminals.” The suicide attack took lives of six people including JUI-S head Maulana Hamidul Haq Haqqani. The blast took place when Hamidul Haq Haqqani was going towards his home after “Friday prayers.” Fazlur Rehman pointed out the increase in attacks on mosques and highlighted an incident in which an individual was pulled out from a mosque and shot. He also cautioned the federal government to not initiate any “military operation.” He further claimed that the leaders aborted their plans to initiate a military operation after they faced stern resistance and opposition from Maulana.
(Umer Farooq, “At Haqqania, Fazl declares killing Muslims ‘not jihad,” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
Militants kill three security personnel in KP, two FC soldiers in Balochistan, three barbers in Sindh in separate attacks
On 9 March, militants attacked security forces in Takre Patti, Kurram, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The attack resulted in the killing of three security personnel. Four security personnel were wounded in the attack. As per the police, militants possessed “heavy automatic weapons.” For the past few weeks, security forces have destroyed homes of people who were helping the militants in various areas of central Kurram. The closure of Parachinar road in the Kurram district has resulted in scarcity of “food and medicines” in the region. The concerned authorities are unable to open transportation routes due to the presence of militants.
On the same day, security forces launched a military operation to root out militants in Jambarri, Balon, Balochistan. The militants were reportedly trying to choke Quetta-Sibi-Highway. In the operation, two Frontier Corps soldiers lost their lives. One of the security personnel was wounded during the operation. The militants were also reported to have experienced “casualties.” The security forces could not confirm the exact number of casualties that occurred on the militant side. On the same day, in Panjgur, Sindh, unknown gunmen shot three barbers. (“Three security personnel martyred in Kurram attack,” Dawn, 10 March 2025; Behram Baloch & Saleem Shahid, “Two FC men martyred in Bolan operation,” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
Airline and Bus owners increase fares as Quetta-Karachi highway remains closed majority of the times
On 10 March, Dawn reported on the challenges faced by the people traveling between Karachi and Quetta through “Quetta-Karachi highway.” As per Dawn, majority of times highways are choked because of demonstrations or due to presence of insurgents in the region. In addition to that, there are numerous “check-posts” which aggravate the inconveniences incurred by people traveling between the two cities. As per Shahid Rind who is the spokesman of Balochistan government, CM Sarfraz Bugti won’t allow “closure of roads” anymore. The airline companies have increased their rates to exploit the closure of roads. The airfare between Quetta and Karachi has surged to PKR 62,000. Some people have claimed to have paid PKR 98,000 airfare. The owners of bus companies have also surged rates. The bus ticket now costs PKR 5300 which was earlier PKR 2500. Many people travel to Karachi from Balochistan for medical reasons. (Muhammad Akbar Notezai, “The cost of travelling on Balochistan’s highways,” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
EXTERNAL
Government approaches the US State department to shed light on the speculated travel ban from Pakistan
On 10 March, Dawn reported on the speculations of US planning to impose a travel ban from Pakistan. The federal government has contacted the US State Department on the issue. As per Reuters report, Pakistan might also be in the “list of countries” from where the Trump administration would not allow people to travel to the US. As per New York Times, there might not be a total travel ban from Pakistan. However, Pakistani nationals might have to go through “more scrutiny” while traveling to the US. As per Pakistan’s US ambassador Rizwan Saeed, the US State Department has not officially informed anything regarding the issue. Some of the US educational institutions have urged Pakistani students not to travel to Pakistan as they were unsure whether the Trump administration would allow their re-entry to the US. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has also cautioned Pakistani nationals to not leave the US and wait till the administration comes with the “new travel ban.”
(Anwar Iqbal, “Pakistan seeks clarity as US mulls restrictions on entry,” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
WATER
On Pakistan’s water initiative at the UN:
“If Pakistan wants to ensure water security for future generations, it must take immediate action to reform its water management practices, curb waste, and implement climate-resilient strategies,” argues an editorial in The News International
On 10 March, an editorial titled “Running dry,” in The News International emphasized on the need to improve water management in Pakistan where urban and rural households suffer from acute water shortages. As this crisis has become “a daily reality for millions,” the country has called for global action at the 2026 UN Water Conference. Speaking at the conference, the Ambassador of Pakistan Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, emphasized strengthening transboundary agreements to ensure equitable distribution and avoid “political conflict.” His statements come as Pakistan remains vulnerable to climate change and is likely to experience water scarcity by 2035 due to its heavy reliance on rainfall and snowmelt, which has now become erratic. The editorial criticizes its domestic response to the matter and deems it inadequate due to the underutilization and misallocation of resources. Furthermore, unequal distribution to urban areas is also a challenge. Therefore, improper management of water has led to complete control of the resource by tanker mafias, causing residents to pay huge sums of money to fulfil their basic water needs. Besides, water scarcity is not an issue restricted to Pakistan. A World Wildlife Fund (WWF) report revealed how 1.1 billion people globally have no access to clean water and 2.7 billion deal with water shortages at least once a month in a year. Hence, “strengthening water purification and waste management systems must become a priority for policymakers, which is why Pakistan's call for international cooperation on water security is a welcome move,” the editorial read. (“Running dry,” The News International, 10 March 2025)
On water insecurity:
“Climate disasters can severely stretch a country’s resources. They can ruin countries unprepared for them” argues an editorial in Dawn
On 10 March, an editorial titled “Water scarcity” in Dawn underscores the importance of implementing climate-resilient measures. According to the Indus River System Authority’s forecasts, Punjab and Sindh will have to brace for a 35 per cent water shortage in the remainder of the current winter crop season. Meanwhile, reports have emerged, saying that the two largest dams Tarbela and Mangla, “are mere days away from hitting dead level.” However, this is not a novel issue. Water shortages for summer and winter crop seasons “have become a new normal” due to the growing number of dry days and shrinking glaciers. This is further compounded by Pakistan’s vulnerability to extreme weather conditions like droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rains and floods, making Pakistan among the top 10 countries most endangered by climate change. However, the country’s policymakers have not invested enough to support the people and economy from climate change-induced disasters. (“Water scarcity,” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
On Cholistan’s canal:
“Certain vested interests are pushing for canal construction while disregarding the potential scientific, social and environmental consequences, which can endanger the project’s success,” argues an opinion in Dawn
On 10 March, in an opinion titled “Finding a canal alternative” in Dawn Hassan Abbas argues how the upcoming Cholistan canal project poses a risk to the corporate farming initiative under the Green Pakistan Initiative. An ideal environment for a successful corporate farm is heavily reliant on a highly efficient irrigation system free of bureaucratic and political hurdles. In the absence of such a water system, the “entire initiative will be in peril.” With context to Cholistan, the region has an aeolian environment with an undulating topography and hard pans. It is underlined by saline groundwater that remains unsuitable for consumption. There are some pockets of freshwater along the Hakra or Sarasvati River; however, it is replenished by occasional rains. The local communities depend on these pockets to meet their day-to-day needs. But the installation of high-capacity tube wells has resulted in over extraction, leading to saline upwelling and eventually rendering existing wells useless. In this regard, the author does not recommend large-scale groundwater extraction as it could be “short-lived, alienate local communities, and accelerate land degradation.” Furthermore, the author draws lessons from India’s Rajasthan Canal, which was built in aeolian desert conditions. Today, “thousands of kilometers of a concrete-lined canal” lie buried under sand. While the Sutlej river may be considered a feeder, it carries waste water discharge from India that has entered food chains and caused high levels of gastrointestinal, liver, and kidney diseases in south Punjab. Hence, using such a water source for corporate farming would make farm produce unsuitable for the international market. Recognizing these challenges, a study was conducted by the GPI in 2023 to find sustainable, climate-smart, and nature-inspired engineering solutions. The study found an “easier to build and operate” solution compared to traditional ones like canals, dams, and barrages. “Unfortunately, it is apparent that certain vested interests are pushing for canal construction while disregarding the potential scientific, social and environmental consequences, which can endanger the project’s success,” the author concluded. (Hassan Abbas, Finding a canal alternative,” Dawn, 10 March 2025)
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"Unfortunately, the GPI is already losing credibility due to the controversial Cholistan canal."
An opinion in Dawn, 'Finding a canal alternative'
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