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PR Commentary
The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan
Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments
D Suba Chandran
The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran should be a challenge for Pakistan at four levels.
1. Conflict comes to Pakistan’s borders, and Islamabad must be worried about it
With Iran, Pakistan shares a long boundary (900 plus kms) on its west, along the unstable Balochistan province. Islamabad has been attempting to build a working relationship with Tehran during recent years, which has not been an easy one. Besides the Shia-Sunni political divide, the Baloch question and cross-border smuggling have been major issues in the bilateral relations between Iran and Pakistan.
Despite the rapprochement over the recent years, the missile strikes by Iran in January 2024 and counterstrikes by Pakistan should underline the fragile relationship between the two countries. Pakistan’s response – immediate and long-term to the ongoing Iran-US clashes - cannot afford to undermine the fragile Islamabad-Tehran rapprochement. While Pakistan’s relationship with the US and the Gulf countries (which Iran has targeted during 28 Feb-01 Mar) is important, Islamabad needs to maintain a stable relationship with Tehran. If it gets strained, then for Pakistan, it would be a hostile neighbourhood, with problems with all three countries – Iran, Afghanistan and India.
2. US-Iran conflict has already come into Pakistan
Even before the current tensions between the US and Iran, there have always been strong anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments within. Not only the conservative groups and religious political parties, but even a section within the moderates, share the above anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments.
The above was reflected in the protests in Karachi on 1 March. Though the protests were following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the real reason is anti-American and anti-Jewish; hence, it is no coincidence the protests took place in front of the US Consulate in Karachi (and also in a few other places), leading to violence and the killing of more than 20 protestors. Pakistan will have to walk a fine line in responding to what is happening on its western front, for it would have repercussions within.
3. Islamabad’s regional interests and Iran’s counterattacks in the Gulf would impact Pakistan’s security and economy
Following the killing of its Supreme leader, Iran has launched a counter-offensive, which includes a few countries in the Gulf, with whom Pakistan share a close relationship – political, economic and military. Any official statement from Islamabad, on the ongoing US-Iran clashes, will have to balance between Pakistan’s immediate neighbour on its western border (Iran) and its friends in the Gulf. During the recent months, Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has improved; in September 2025, both countries signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. One of the clauses of the above agreement mentions: “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” In this context, what would Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia mean?
Besides Pakistan’s security interests, there is a huge Pakistani diaspora and working population in the Middle East. More than 4.5 million Pakistanis are working in the region; almost 2.5 to three million in Saudi Arabia and the UAE alone. The remittances from the Gulf countries (around 20 million USD) constitute more than 50 per cent of Pakistan’s total remittances, and around five per cent of the country’s GDP. Any counterattack by Iran on the Gulf countries will not have an implication for Pakistan at a strategic level, but also at a popular level, as the above numbers would indicate. According to data, there are around 120-150 direct flights between different Gulf countries and Pakistan; Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah are well connected with multiple Pakistani cities.
4. Pakistan’s international interests and the newfound Trump friendship
Islamabad and Rawalpindi have been trying to cultivate the US. Both the PM and the Army Chief have been taking an extra step to appease President Trump. Any formal statement by Pakistan, whether in Islamabad or at the United Nations, will have to be cautious. Islamabad cannot afford not to condemn the attacks on Iran; the domestic audience would demand a strong response, even if it is rhetoric. Any formal statement from the Prime Minister’s Office or Pakistan’s foreign ministry will have to address the above. At the same time, Pakistan will have to walk a fine line in not upsetting its newfound friend in the White House – President Trump.
Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations tried to balance by condemning both. According to media reports, he condemned “the initiation of unwarranted attacks against the Islamic Republic of Iran, in violation of international law” and “the attacks against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates,” with an emphasis that Pakistan “stands in solidarity with all these brotherly countries. These unprovoked attacks constitute blatant violations of the sovereignty of the brotherly Gulf states.”
If the situation gets worse between the US and Iran, and if Tehran has to continue targeting its immediate neighbourhood, how would Pakistan respond further?
About the author
D Suba Chandran is a Professor and Dean at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) Bengaluru. He coordinates NIAS Pakistan Reader and edits NIAS Pakistan Monitor. Email: subachandran@nias.res.in.
In Focus
Pakistani operations against Afghanistan enter fourth day
415 Taliban fighters killed as hostilities continue; Pakistan uses Foreigners Act to act against illegal Afghan nationals
On 02 March, The Express Tribune and Dawn reported that security forces killed 415 Afghan Taliban fighters and injured another 580. On Sunday, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced this, as Pakistan’s “Operation Ghazab Lil Haq” against Afghanistan entered its fourth day. He also said that 182 Taliban checkposts had been destroyed, while Pakistani forces took control of 31 additional posts. He further claimed that 115 Afghan Taliban tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery guns had been destroyed since fighting began. He also added that air operations had successfully targeted 46 locations across Afghanistan and that troops had advanced across the border from North Waziristan toward a Taliban central post.
Also on Sunday, the federal government announced that it would fully implement the single visa regime through the Foreigners Act 1946 to take action against illegal Afghan nationals. The decision was taken at a meeting held to review law and order in Islamabad, which was chaired by the Secretary of the Interior, retired Capt Mohammad Khurram Agha. He said that it was the commitment of the government to ensure the safety and security of the country by taking effective legal action against illegal foreign nationals. This also comes as hundreds of illegal Afghan nationals were sent to jail in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This came due to a judicial remand, mandating the arrest of Afghan nationals in the province illegally. The judicial magistrate, Mohammad Anwar Khan, also ordered police to set free those arrested Afghan nationals who possessed valid documents for their stay in the country.
Earlier, on Saturday, Afghanistan had said it was open to talks with Pakistan to halt the fighting, but the Prime Minister’s spokesperson for foreign media, Mosharraf Zaidi, said that there would be no dialogue and that “terrorism from Afghanistan has to end.” Fighting between the two neighbours began late Thursday, when Afghanistan responded to Pakistani airstrikes over the previous weekend. Pakistan then launched a comprehensive military operation on Friday, declaring “open war” aimed at dismantling Kabul’s support for terrorist groups, particularly the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Fighting continued over the weekend, with Pakistani forces conducting strikes on Kabul and Afghanistan deploying missile defence systems against Pakistani jets. (“Righteous Fury: 415 Taliban neutralised, 580 injured so far,” The Express Tribune, 02 March 2026; “Hundreds of illegal Afghans sent to jail on judicial remand across KP,” Dawn, 02 March 2026; “Govt to act against illegal Afghan nationals under Foreigners Act to enforce single visa regime,” Dawn, 02 March 2026)
In Brief
ON INDIA
New Delhi announcement of storage projects on Jhelum and Chenab raises alarm in Pakistan
On 2 March, Dawn reported that the USD 60 billion announcement by New Delhi to enhance storage capacity along the two major western rivers, Jhelum and Chenab, flowing from India, raised alarm for Pakistan. Completion of these projects is estimated to increase New Delhi’s storage capacity on these rivers to 55-60 days, up from around 15 days at present. Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) Chairman stressed that Pakistan would need new flood reservoirs to conserve surplus water and mitigate potential shocks. (“$ 60 bn Indian plan for river storage raises alarm,” Dawn, 2 March 2026)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan urges calm as fighting intensifies in the Middle East
On 02 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan spoke to the rulers of Jordan and Bahrain to offer support and urge restraint and dialogue as the violence across the Middle East entered its third day. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, PM Shehbaz Sharif held a telephone conversation with Jordan’s King Abdullah II to exchange views on the regional developments and recent escalations, which included attacks on Jordan and other regional countries. The PM expressed deep concern, urged the need for restraint and reaffirmed Pakistan’s solidarity with Jordan. The PM said he also spoke to Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa to convey Pakistan’s support and solidarity with the people of the country. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar also spoke to his Omani and Iraqi counterparts and stressed the need for sustained efforts for peace and stability in the region. (“Pakistan urges restraint as missiles rain down on Gulf,” Dawn, 02 March 2026)
ECONOMY
IMF review mission holds discussions with OICCI and PBC delegation
On 2 March, Dawn reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) review team held discussions with Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) and the Pakistan Business Council (PBC) delegation. The PBC Chairperson called for the abolition of the super tax in all its forms, a phased reduction of the corporate tax rate to 25 per cent, and the rationalisation of advance and withholding tax regimes that act as de facto minimum taxes. OICCI President reiterated the need to focus on exports with higher productivity and investments that require a centrally coordinated medium-term reform programme under a comprehensive National Economic Plan. ("IMF discusses economic outlook with multinationals," Dawn, 2 March 2026)
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
Parliament session shifted to afternoon amid heightened security after Khamenei assassination
On 02 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan's political leadership on Sunday condemned the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and expressed solidarity with the neighbouring country. The authorities on Sunday imposed enhanced security across the country. The joint sitting of parliament that was scheduled to start at 10:30 am would now start at 3 pm, Dawn learnt. Security was tightened at the gates of Parliament House here with only the official delegates being allowed in, while the media was restricted from entering the rooms inside. PTI and opposition alliance Tehreek-i-Tahafuz Ayeen-i-Pakistan also condemned the assassination and urged the government to declare three days of national mourning. (“Joint sitting of parliament rescheduled,” Dawn, 02 March 2026)
PTI Punjab announces rotating sit-ins outside courts and Adiala to press for Imran case hearings and medical access
On 2 March, Dawn reported that the PTI’s Punjab chapter had distributed a “division-wise calendar” instructing party cells, MNAs and MPAs to stage sit-ins during working hours outside the Supreme Court, the Islamabad High Court and the Adiala Jail to ask for an early hearing of cases against the party’s chief Imran Khan and to express concern over his health. The calendar says the PTI’s South Punjab cell will block a road outside the Adiala Jail on 3 Mar and the North Punjab cell will stage a sit-in outside the jail on 10 Mar. Several party cells have been assigned dates in Mar to stage sit-ins outside the Supreme Court until 18 Mar, while there will be a sit-in outside the Islamabad High Court on 11 Mar. The calendar says that the Rawalpindi division’s 2 Mar sit-in had been postponed due to the “red zone” situation and would be merged into the 4 Mar sit-in. (“All PTI wings told to hold sit-ins outside courts, Adiala,” Dawn, 2 March 2026)
SECURITY
Suicide bombing incidents increased manifold, as per PICSS report
On 2 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) published its monthly report documenting violence-related deaths across the country. Report data shows a 74 per cent surge in the deaths of security forces personnel, a 32 per cent rise in civilian deaths and a 21 per cent increase in militant deaths compared to the previous month. Violence escalated significantly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with three suicidal bombings and cross-border escalations. In total, Country recorded eight suicide attacks in the first two months of the year, that are nearly half the total for all of 2025. (“‘Combat-related deaths jump 30pc amid wave of suicide attacks’: says PICSS,” Dawn, 2 March 2026)
Editorials/Opinions
US-Iran war
Fahd Husain, “Clarity in times of war,” The Express Tribune, 01 March 2026
"We are faced with a three-border problem. The conflict with Afghanistan is escalating, the US/Israel attack on Iran is widening, and India continues to glower from across the eastern border. This is the most serious poly-crisis we have faced in a very long time. Navigating it successfully would require supreme clarity about exercising tough options and absorbing external shocks."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2595099/clarity-in-times-of-war
Editorial, “Khamenei’s killing,” Dawn, 02 March 2026
"There is no question about it: with the brutal assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and members of his family in Tehran on Saturday, the US and Israel have chosen the path followed by states gone rogue. They have established a dangerous precedent by killing the head of a sovereign country in cold blood. No consideration of international conventions stopped them and the broader fallout of this egregious crime is a new normal that many other states with similarly reprehensible tendencies may want to adopt."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1977310/khameneis-killing
Abbas Nasir, “What next after Iran?” Dawn, 01 March 2026
"WITH the start of the Israel-US war on Iran, marked by missiles strikes on various targets in Tehran as well as other urban centres, the attempt to reshape the region is underway. It may be several days before it is evident if the ‘regime change’ objective of this war has been achieved and how the Islamic Republic has fared in what it says is an existential fight."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1976885/what-next-after-iran
Pakistan-Afghanistan
Muhammad Amir Rana, “Lessons from the Taliban,” Dawn, 01 March 2026
"A positive that can be extracted from the ongoing confrontation with Afghanistan is that Pakistan has taken an ideological turn before it could drift further into ‘institutionalised radicalism’. The worst aspect, meanwhile, is the loss of lives on both sides, and the shattered dream of a friendly state on Pakistan’s western border as a strategic shield against India and geo-economic connectivity beyond Afghanistan and Central Asia up to the borders of Europe."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1976886/lessons-from-the-taliban
Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan's new Afghan doctrine,” The Express Tribune, 02 March 2026
"For years, Pakistan exercised restraint in dealing with the authorities in Afghanistan. It relied on backchannel diplomacy, intelligence sharing and border fencing to contain the threat posed by the banned TTP. But the recent wave of high-profile terrorist attacks inside Pakistan appears to have altered Islamabad's calculus decisively."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2595269/pakistans-new-afghan-doctrine
Politics & governance
Editorial, “NFC reform,” Dawn, 02 March 2026
"Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal’s call for forward-looking reforms in the NFC Award has reopened an important debate on Pakistan’s fiscal architecture. The focus should now be on reshaping the revenue-sharing framework to ensure fiscal sustainability, reward performance and reflect changing economic realities. Highlighting the imbalance between federal responsibilities and fiscal capacity, Mr Iqbal cited budget figures to underscore the scale of the centre’s financial constraints. After transferring the provinces’ share from the divisible tax pool under the NFC Award, the centre is left with only enough money to finance debt servicing and defence expenditure. This forces the centre to rely on borrowing to fund essential functions such as pensions and social protection, perpetuating a cycle of rising debt and shrinking fiscal flexibility."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1977309/nfc-reform
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