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In Focus
Climate disasters in Pakistan higher than global average, according to report
State Bank of Pakistan finds that climate change could cut Pakistan’s GDP by up to 9 per cent by 2050
On 21 May, Dawn reported that a State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) report warned that Pakistan faces climate-related disasters at rates higher than both global and regional averages despite contributing only around one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The report noted that, since 1995, Pakistan has been among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and could see GDP decline by 4.5-6.5 per cent by 2050 under an optimistic scenario and up to 7-9 per cent under a pessimistic one, according to World Bank estimates. Agriculture and industry were identified as the most exposed sectors, with their output potentially falling by up to 17 per cent without climate action.
The report highlighted that Pakistan ranks as the 15th most affected country by climatic events between 1995 and 2024, with rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, glacial retreat and sea-level increases intensifying risks. While Pakistan contributes relatively little to global emissions, it has comparatively high emission intensity and faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with emissions reduction. The report also noted that climate-related disasters caused economic losses of USD 29.3 billion between 1992 and 2021, while the 2022 floods alone resulted in damages estimated at around USD 28 billion. (“‘Vulnerable’ Pakistan faces climate losses,” Dawn, 21 May 2026)
Read the report:
"Climate Change and its impact on Pakistan's Economy," State Bank of Pakistan, 11 May 2026
IMF & Pakistan conclude talks; Islamabad agrees to surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP
Discussions focused on fiscal plans for the next financial year and progress on reforms under IMF-supported programs
On 21 May, Dawn and The News International reported that an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission concluded discussions with Pakistani authorities on economic developments, fiscal planning and reform implementation under the country’s IMF-supported programmes. The IMF said Pakistan had reaffirmed its commitment to achieving a primary surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP in FY2027, with fiscal consolidation expected to be supported through broader tax collection, improved administration and greater spending efficiency. The mission also discussed the impact of disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and noted that budget negotiations for the next fiscal year would continue in the coming days.
The IMF added that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) had committed to maintaining an appropriately tight monetary policy stance to anchor inflation expectations while continuing exchange-rate flexibility as a key shock absorber. Discussions also covered reforms in the energy sector, state-owned enterprises, financial markets and climate resilience under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The talks followed the IMF’s recent approval of fresh funding for Pakistan and earlier assessments that the country had made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability, improving reserves and rebuilding economic confidence under the ongoing programme. (“IMF wraps up Pakistan visit following talks with authorities on reforms, budget,” Dawn, 21 May 2026; “Pakistan sticks to 2% GDP primary surplus goal for 2027 as IMF mission ends visit,” The News International, 21 May 2026)
In Brief
EXTERNAL
Pakistan and China mark 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties as PM Shehbaz prepares state visit
On 20 May, Dawn reported that both houses of Pakistan's parliament passed resolutions commemorating the 75th anniversary of Pakistan-China diplomatic relations, with a Chinese delegation led by NPC Standing Committee Vice Chairman Cai Dafeng present in Islamabad for the occasion. Addressing the Senate, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar described the two countries as sharing a "converging vision" on regional and global issues and reaffirmed Pakistan's commitment to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 2.0, focusing on industrialisation, agriculture, IT, and socio-economic development. Dar announced he would accompany PM Shehbaz on a state visit to China from 23 to 26 May, during which meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, a B2B forum, and sessions of the Pakistan-China Political Forum and CPEC Joint Consultative Mechanism are planned. He also highlighted the joint Pakistan-China five-point peace initiative for the Middle East conflict, which he said had been endorsed by dozens of countries. Both parliamentary resolutions reaffirmed Pakistan's firm commitment to the one-China principle, including on Taiwan, Xinjiang, Xizang, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea. ("Pakistan, China share 'converging vision' on regional and global issues, says DPM Dar," Dawn, 20 May 2026)
Pakistani migrant outflow dips to 725,672 in 2024 as visa restrictions bite
On 20 May, Dawn reported that the Pakistan Migration Report 2025, launched at the Lahore School of Economics, found that outward migration fell from 862,000 in 2023 to 725,672 in 2024 before recovering slightly to 762,499 in 2025, with the decline attributed primarily to visa restrictions and policy shifts in host countries. The Gulf region continues to host 92 per cent of registered Pakistani migrant workers, with Saudi Arabia retaining its position as the top destination, though remittances from non-GCC countries remain comparatively higher. Around two-thirds of Pakistani labour migrants are still categorised as low or unskilled, with their combined share rising a further 12 per cent in 2025, while women account for just one per cent of the migrant labour force. Remittance inflows rose 25 per cent from USD 30.2 billion in 2023-24 to USD 38.3 billion in 2024-25, now accounting for 9.34 per cent of GDP. Irregular migration to Europe remains a concern, with 5,680 Pakistanis apprehended at European borders in 2024 and 3,203 in the first half of 2025, around 90 per cent attempting entry by sea. ("Migrant outflow declines in recent years due to visa restrictions: report," Dawn, 20 May 2026)
Pakistan avails USD 1.2 billion Saudi oil facility as Riyadh remains largest depositor
On 21 May, The News International reported that Pakistan has availed itself of a USD 1.2 billion oil facility from the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), disbursed at USD 100 million per month from May 2025 to April 2026, with the final tranche received in April. Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Ahad Cheema confirmed the arrangement, while sources said Pakistan had requested an extension but had not yet received Riyadh's confirmation. Saudi Arabia has already committed an additional USD 3 billion deposit in April 2026, bringing its total deposits with the State Bank of Pakistan to USD 8 billion. Official EAD data shows Pakistan secured USD 4.47 billion in foreign inflows in April 2026 alone, including multilateral and bilateral deposits, a Eurobond launch, and commercial loans, bringing total foreign loans for the first ten months of the current fiscal year to USD 11.06 billion, compared to USD 6.08 billion in the same period last year. ("Pakistan secures $1.2bn oil facility from KSA," The News International, 21 May 2026)
Punjab and Azerbaijan establish joint economic working group to drive trade and investment cooperation
On 21 May, The Express Tribune reported that Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov agreed to establish a joint working group to facilitate economic cooperation across trade, investment, urban development, agriculture, logistics, tourism, and infrastructure. Senior Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb was appointed head of the group on behalf of Punjab. Discussions also covered the prospects of a Preferential Trade Arrangement between Pakistan and Azerbaijan, and investment opportunities for Azerbaijani firms in smart cities, real estate, hospitality, agri-value chains, and IT infrastructure. The working group will identify priority sectors, organise public-private partnership opportunities, and propose frameworks for sectoral cooperation and regulatory facilitation. ("Punjab, Azerbaijan form joint economic working group," The Express Tribune, 21 May 2026)
ECONOMY
Pakistan finalises offshore exploration bids; first in over two decades
On 20 May, The Express Tribune reported that Pakistan reopened its offshore exploration frontier after nearly two decades as the government signed Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) and Exploration Licences (ELs) for offshore blocks awarded under the Offshore Bid Round 2025. These offshore exploration projects are located in the Indus and Makran offshore basins adjoining the territorial waters of Sindh and Balochistan. The Offshore Bid Round 2025 attracted bids for approximately 54,600 square kilometres of Pakistan’s offshore area, resulting in the award of 23 offshore blocks. Collectively, the awarded blocks represent an investment of approximately USD 82 million during Phase I of the initial three-year licence period. The total investment is projected to rise to around USD one billion if exploration activities progress to Phase II drilling operations. (“Pakistan reopens offshore exploration frontier after two decades,” The Express Tribune, 21 May 2026)
SECURITY
Kurram: Clashes erupt between rival extremist groups
On 21 May, The Express Tribune reported that during a fierce armed clash between two rival extremist groups in the tribal district of Kurram, at least 18 terrorists were killed. The violent confrontation took place in the Manatu Kamran Khel area of Central Kurram, resulting in the death of commander Mumtaz Omati, along with 17 other armed fighters. The authorities have not confirmed the triggering cause, whether it was a territorial dispute or leadership rivalry. Security sources said multiple militant factions remain active in Central Kurram. Police have carried out periodic operations in the region, killing hundreds of extremists and destroying dozens of hideouts, including training camps used by banned outfits. (“18 terrorists killed in clash between rival groups in Kurram,” The Express Tribune, 21 May 2026)
Balochistan: Security forces kill key TTP Commander
On 21 May, The Express Tribune reported that a key Afghan commander of the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was killed by security forces during an operation in the Pishin district of Balochistan. The killing of Basir is being marked as a major success for security forces in the ongoing fight against militancy. Security forces continue to take action under Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. The Apex Committee of the National Action Plan had approved Operation Azm-e-Istehkam in June 2024 to eliminate terrorism and extremism across the country, aiming to eradicate militancy decisively and comprehensively. (“Security forces kill TTP Commander in Balochistan's Pishin,” The Express Tribune, 21 May 2026)
Punjab: Border Military Police station targeted by militants
On 21 May, Dawn reported that insurgent elements attacked the Border Military Police (BMP) police station in Chitarwata, located in the Koh-i-Sulaiman tehsil’s tribal area of Punjab. All BMP personnel remained safe; however, the police station building had been damaged. Koh-i-Sulaiman Political Assistant and BMP Commandant said all possible measures were underway to protect the lives and property of the citizens, and the atmosphere of peace and order would be upheld at all costs. (“Border Military Police station attacked by militants in Dera Ghazi Khan,” Dawn, 21 May 2026)
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
KP CM Afridi and other PTI leaders allege firing on protesters near Adiala Jail
On 21 May, Dawn reported that the PTI leaders, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Imran Khan’s sister Aleema Khan, were claiming that shots were fired at party supporters during a sit-in near Islamabad’s Chungi No. 26 area. The protests began after PTI workers travelling towards the Adiala Jail were stopped from entering Islamabad due to Section 144 restrictions. During a press conference, the PTI leaders alleged that the security personnel used force to disperse the protesters and claimed that several participants were injured. The party also shared videos, which it said showed firing during the protest. PTI leaders also criticised the authorities over the handling of the protest and raised concerns regarding the treatment and the medical care of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail. The party further announced that it would continue its protest campaign and organise more demonstrations in the coming days. (“Afridi, Aleema claim shots were fired at Adiala sit-in participants,” Dawn, 21 May 2026)
PTI signals willingness for dialogue with government linked to Imran Khan’s release
On 21 May, Dawn reported that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) expressed its willingness to hold talks with the government, provided that former Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from jail. PTI leader Ali Muhammad Khan, when speaking in the National Assembly, said that the party was open to dialogue if a suitable political environment was created and Imran Khan was freed. He also stated that the PTI would support the opposition leader, Mehmood Khan Achakzai, in any dialogue process with the government. The remarks came after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reportedly invited the opposition for talks. PTI leaders said the negotiations could help reduce political tensions and contribute to stability in the country. The party also reiterated concerns regarding the imprisonment of Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi. PTI had earlier rejected the talks with the government, demanding what it described as a level playing field and relief for party leaders and workers before negotiations could take place. (“PTI willing to hold dialogue with govt conditional on Imran’s release,” Dawn, 21 May 2026)
JUDICIARY
IHC issues notices in Imaan Mazari and Hadi Chatha sentence suspension case
On 20 May, Dawn reported that the Islamabad High Court (IHC) had issued notices on requests seeking an early hearing of pleas filed by human rights lawyers Imaan Mazari-Hazir and her husband Hadi Ali Chatha for the suspension of their prison sentences in the social media posts case. During the hearing, their lawyer, Faisal Siddiqi, had asked the court to hear the case on 25 May. However, Justice Muhammad Azam Khan said it would be difficult as it was the last working day before Eidul Azha and suggested hearing the matter after Eid. The court later adjourned the hearing and said it would review the schedule before deciding the date. Earlier on 12 May, the Supreme Court had directed the IHC to decide the pleas within two weeks. In January, the couple was sentenced to 17 years in prison under different sections of the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA), including charges related to cyber terrorism, glorification of an offence and spreading false information through social media posts. (“IHC issues notices on applications seeking early hearing of Imaan, Hadi’s sentence suspension pleas,” Dawn, 20 May 2026)
Editorials/Opinions
US-Iran war
Inam Ul Haque, "Lessons from US-Iran war - shifts and changes," The Express Tribune, 21 May 2026
"For the past two weeks, we have been mapping out the implications, conclusions and lessons from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Having discussed the effects on warfare, and the quest for alternative energy, this piece would deliberate on random changes that affect the belligerents and the region, including the greater Middle East."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2609216/lessons-from-us-iran-war-shifts-and-changes
Palestinian statehood
Durdana Najam, "Can we re-anchor Palestinian statehood on global agenda?" The Express Tribune, 21 May 2026
"For as long as the Palestinian question has existed, Pakistan has stood along where many other nations stand: on the side of a people who were displaced, and denied the right to live freely in their own homeland. Our position is not unique. It is part of a wider consensus - shared by countries across the Muslim world, the Global South, and by millions of ordinary people everywhere - that the Palestinians deserve a sovereign state based on the pre-1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2609217/can-we-re-anchor-palestinian-statehood-on-global-agenda
Climate change
Naseer Memon, "Looming danger," Dawn, 21 May 2026
"El niño is set to grip South Asia this year. This weather phenomenon is characterised by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The ocean’s temperature influences South Asia’s climate, particularly the intensity of the summer monsoon. As the Pacific’s water gets warmer, atmospheric convection moves eastward, drifting away from the Indian Ocean. Hence, the region experiences a weak monsoon due to suppressed rainfall and reduced movement of moisture. El Niño often leads to higher temperatures and prolonged heatwaves across the region."
https://www.dawn.com/news/2001954/looming-danger
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, "Climate-proofing CPEC 2.0," Dawn, 21 May 2026
"As Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif travels to Beijing this week to mark 75 years of Pakistan-China relations, the centrepiece of his agenda will be CPEC 2.0. The 14th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting in September 2025 formally launched phase II, anchored in five corridors: growth, livelihood, innovation, green development, and regional connectivity. The direction, at last, is set."
https://www.dawn.com/news/2001957/climate-proofing-cpec-20
Culture
Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri, "Karachi's forgotten bustling life, buses & music," The Express Tribune, 20 May 2026
"From Kolachi to Karachi, the bustling metropolitan of lights has come a long way. Now it is in tatters unfortunately, owing to lack of ownership from the people and the government, alike. As a Karachiite, I have no dearth of memories to cherish as the city used to have a happening ambience all over: be it the sprawling katchi abadis, the middle class concrete jungles or the posh localities. Apart from its night life – as Burns Road, Lalukhet, Nazimabad Chowrangi and Bahadurabad used to bristle almost till wee-hours with eateries – there was a commutation magic in the city. That was its private buses, Omni buses and coaches with a colourful mode of their own."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2609031/karachis-forgotten-bustling-life-buses-music
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