NPOS Daily Brief

Photo : BBC

Scientists warn temperature rise about 1.5 degree Celsius would lead to unmanageable sea level rise

By Padmashree Anandhan and Lekshmi MK

BIODIVERSITY
IUCN lists Blue Sharks in the Pacific Ocean as “Near Threatened” due to industrial longlining
On 20 May, the Oceanographic reported that blue sharks were being listed as “Near Threatened” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In 2023, industrial liners were reported to have caught 438,500 blue sharks in the Pacific Ocean. This figure is double the number that was recorded in 2015. Blue sharks were being bycaught by longline fishers across the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) region over the past nine years, and in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, made up more than 90 per cent of bycatch. Greenpeace Australia Pacific highlighted that industrial longlining was being destructive and indiscriminate fishing practice. This practice led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of marine animals annually. Greenpeace urged the Australian government to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty within the first 100 days of its term after the United Nations Ocean Conference in France. (Rob Hutchins, "Half a million blue sharks killed in Pacific Ocean in 2023," Oceanographic, 20 May 2025) 

Scientists recreate the environment where Polar dinosaurs lived 120 million years ago
On 12 May, Live Science reported that scientists recreated the environment where polar dinosaurs lived 120 million years ago. During the Early Cretaceous, areas within the polar circle were experiencing months of darkness. Despite these harsh conditions, dinosaurs thrived and left behind fossil evidence. The Cretaceous period was a mildest climate, with temperatures averaging between 6 to 14 degrees Celsius warmer than today. However, it allowed such ecosystems to exist in polar regions. Now, the reconstruction was revealing cool-temperate forests with rivers and large ferns in southern Australia. ("See the reconstructed home of 'polar dinosaurs' that thrived in the Antarctic 120 million years ago," Live Science, 12 May 2025) 

Scientists find presence of synthetic chemicals in fat tissue of Polar Bear due to pollution impact
On 19 May, Phys.org reported the fat tissue biopsies conducted on polar bears in Norway's Svalbard archipelago for the first time. The research team captured 53 bears, fitting 17 with satellite collars, and tracking 10 mothers with cubs to gather extensive data on their health and behaviour. The scientists studied the impact of pollutants on their health. An analysis of the collected fat samples revealed the presence of persistent synthetic chemicals in the environment known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Despite being exposed to pollutants, Svalbard's polar bears were showing no signs of ill health. With diminishing sea ice, polar bears were adapting by altering their diets to include reindeer, bird eggs, and seaweed, spending more time on land than in previous decades. They were also attaching small "health log" devices to some bears, which were recording pulse and temperature data to provide insights into their physiological responses to environmental changes. ("Polar bear biopsies to shed light on Arctic pollutants," Phys.org, 19 May 2025) 

CLIMATE CHANGE
Scientists warn temperature rise about 1.5 degree Celsius would lead to unmanageable sea level rise
On 20 May, The Guardian reported on Scientists warning over sea level rise will become unmanageable even with a global temperature increase of just 1.5 degrees Celsius, leading to "catastrophic inland migration." Despite efforts to curb emissions, sea levels are projected to rise by one centimetre per year by the end of the century, faster than coastal defenses can be built. The primary cause of this rise is the accelerated melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which could eventually lead to a devastating 12-metre rise in sea levels if global warming reaches 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius. This would threaten millions of people living near coastlines and cause trillions of dollars in damage annually. Though the 1.5 degrees Celsius target is nearly out of reach, the study emphasizes that every fraction of a degree avoided still matters, providing more time for adaptation. The scientists suggest that a "safe limit" for ice sheet stability might be around one degrees Celsius, but a rise of one to two meters is now inevitable, with major implications for both developed and developing nations. The study also highlights the risk of self-reinforcing feedback loops that could drive even faster sea level rise, potentially displacing billions in the long term. (Damian Carrington, “Sea level rise will cause ‘catastrophic inland migration’, scientists warn,” The Guardian, 20 May 2025)

Ocean Currents and Climate Change
On 20 May, the University of Birmingham reported on Tom Jones study on marine algae to interpret the sedimentary records. Dunkley's study offers new insights into the evolution of deep ocean currents that were impacting Earth's climate. For predicting future climate scenarios, understanding the historical behaviour of ocean currents was considered important. The findings revealed the shift in deep ocean circulation through the intensification of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) 3.6 million years ago. In contrast, the Denmark Strait Overflow water (DSOW) and North Atlantic Deep water (NADW) exhibited a more consistent presence since the Late Miocene period. This contrast was underscoring the dynamic nature of oceanic systems and their complex responses to climatic shifts. (Tom Dunkley Jones, "New Research Illuminates Ancient Ocean Currents and Climate Change," University of Birmingham, 20 May 2025) 

DEEP-SEA MINING
US Ocean Mining Plans in American Samoa 
On 20 May, Bloomberg was reporting that the Trump administration was planning to sell mining rights off the coast of American Samoa. Trump's administration was aiming to untap the valuable mineral resources located on the US Outer Continental Shelf. This initiative was setting a stage to strengthen the US's resilience and protect its self-interest. This move was increasing the domestic access to critical minerals that were crucial for various industries. However, environmentalists and conservation groups were expressing serious concerns about the damage that these deep-sea mining activities were causing to marine ecosystems. (Jennifer A Dlouhy, "Trump Sets Stage to Sell Ocean Mining Rights Off American Samoa," Bloomberg, 21 May 2025)  

DEFENCE & SECURITY
Russia’s deploys Tu-95MS bombers for strategic advantage
On 19 May, the Bulgarianmilitary reported that Russia had sent two more Tu-95MS strategic bombers to the airbase of Olenya in the Arctic. The Tu-95MS bomber has nuclear capability and can carry long-range cruise missiles, thereby increasing Russia's deterrent. As a part of the modernised fleet, the aircraft features upgraded avionics and weapons systems to extend its operational lifespan and effectiveness. The move reflects Russia's symbolic move to the other Arctic powers and NATO members that it is prepared to defend its regional interests. Russia is observed to be bolstering its military presence amid geopolitical tensions, global warming, emerging maritime routes, and unexploited natural resources. The selection of Olenya is considered strategic due to its proximity to NATO and to shield bombers from Ukrainian drones. Symbolically, it is projecting power toward the West. Yet the reliance on ageing platforms like the Tu-95MS is raising doubts about the sustainability of Russia's air campaign. (Bokyo Nikolov, "Russia deploys two more Tu-95MS bombers to remote Arctic hub," Bulgarianmilitary, 19 May 2025)

ECONOMY
Northern Sea Route as Russia's economic engine
On 19 May, the High North News reported that Russia was expecting to earn 160 billion USD from businesses operating along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by 2035. Russia's Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, Alexey Chekunkov said: "The Arctic is one of the key economic engines of Russia's development," highlighting its expanding economic role. The Arctic contributes to 7.5 per cent of Russia's GDP and is projected to account for up to 10 per cent soon. Projects like Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG 2, and Vostok Oil are crucial in exploring Russia's oil and gas reserves in the Arctic. It aims to meet Asia's growing energy demand. Russia is investing heavily in the NSR, which is emerging as an alternative shipping route between Europe and Asia. It is aiming to increase cargo volumes to 150 million tons by 2035. Russia’s long-term focus in the NSR remains on sovereignty, logistics, and economic growth with an allotted budget of USD 40 million. (Malte Humpert, Russia to Earn $160bn in Taxes From Northern Sea Route by 2035, Arctic Region Accounts for 7.5 Percent of GDP,” High North News, 19 May 2025)

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
China launches high-resolution ocean simulator for the ocean modeling
China has made a groundbreaking advancement in ocean simulation technology with the launch of LICOMK++, an ultra-high-resolution ocean simulator capable of modeling sea currents with a remarkable 0.6-mile resolution. Developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, this tool offers unparalleled precision in studying oceanic and climatic interactions, providing crucial insights into phenomena like typhoons and marine heatwaves. By overcoming significant computational challenges, especially in the face of Western tech restrictions, LICOMK++ sets a new global standard for ocean modeling, with applications ranging from better weather forecasting to enhanced disaster response and climate adaptation strategies. This achievement highlights China's growing role in scientific innovation and its pursuit of technological independence. (Hina Dinoo, “China’s Ocean Simulator Stuns World”: New Tech Recreates Sea Currents With Unmatched Half-Mile Resolution for Climate and Naval Mastery,” rudebaguette, 17 May 2025)

NASA in collaboration with CNES develops SWOT satellite to track movement of water and materials
On 18 May, a new NASA satellite mission built a satellite to improve understanding of ocean currents by providing unprecedented detail about small-scale ocean features. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite, developed in collaboration with NASA and France's CNES, can detect submesoscale eddies and waves—tiny ocean currents often just a mile wide. These features play a crucial role in the movement of heat and nutrients across marine ecosystems. For years, scientists knew of their existence but lacked the tools to study them in detail. SWOT's high-resolution images now allow researchers to track how water and materials move, revealing how these small currents influence both ocean temperatures and marine life. This data is crucial for improving ocean circulation models and understanding how the ocean interacts with the atmosphere, with implications for weather patterns and climate change predictions. (“Study reveals healing ozone hole helps Southern Ocean take up carbon,” The Tribune, 18 May 2025)

SHIPPING
Greenland’s shipping firm sets precedent to use cleaner fuels in the Arctic
On 19 May, the American Journal of Transportation reported on the Royal Arctic Line (RAL), Greenland’s shipping firm, phasing out the use of heavy fuel oil (HFO) in its operations. This comes ahead of the full ban set for 2029 by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). While the IMO’s ban on HFO came into effect on 01 July 2024, with exemptions to certain ships to continue using HFO until 2029. RAL has indicated early compliance, while the company is setting a powerful precedent for other shipping firms operating in the Arctic. RAL seeks to avoid oil spills within the Arctic environment and to limit black carbon emissions that could contaminate the ice and glaciers. RAL emphasizes the need to implement cleaner fuels in maritime operations and engages in active guarding of the Arctic. (“Greenland shipping firm Royal Arctic Line to end heavy fuel oil use,” American Journal of Transportation, 19 May 2025)
 

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