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CWA # 1993, 3 March 2026
PR Commentary
The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

  D Suba Chandran

The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran should be a challenge for Pakistan at four levels. 

1. Conflict comes to Pakistan’s borders, and Islamabad must be worried about it 
With Iran, Pakistan shares a long boundary (900 plus kms) on its west, along the unstable Balochistan province. Islamabad has been attempting to build a working relationship with Tehran during recent years, which has not been an easy one. Besides the Shia-Sunni political divide, the Baloch question and cross-border smuggling have been major issues in the bilateral relations between Iran and Pakistan. 

Despite the rapprochement over the recent years, the missile strikes by Iran in January 2024 and counterstrikes by Pakistan should underline the fragile relationship between the two countries. Pakistan’s response – immediate and long-term to the ongoing Iran-US clashes - cannot afford to undermine the fragile Islamabad-Tehran rapprochement. While Pakistan’s relationship with the US and the Gulf countries (which Iran has targeted during 28 Feb-01 Mar) is important, Islamabad needs to maintain a stable relationship with Tehran. If it gets strained, then for Pakistan, it would be a hostile neighbourhood, with problems with all three countries – Iran, Afghanistan and India.

2. US-Iran conflict has already come into Pakistan 
Even before the current tensions between the US and Iran, there have always been strong anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments within. Not only the conservative groups and religious political parties, but even a section within the moderates, share the above anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments. 

The above was reflected in the protests in Karachi on 1 March. Though the protests followed the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the real reason is anti-American and anti-Jewish; hence, it is no coincidence the protests took place in front of the US Consulate in Karachi (and also in a few other places), leading to violence and the killing of more than 20 protestors. Pakistan will have to walk a fine line in responding to what is happening on its western front, for it would have repercussions within.

3. Islamabad’s regional interests, and Iran’s counterattacks in the Gulf would impact Pakistan’s security and economy 
Following the killing of its Supreme leader, Iran has launched a counter-offensive, which includes a few countries in the Gulf, with whom Pakistan share a close relationship – political, economic and military. Any official statement from Islamabad, on the ongoing US-Iran clashes, will have to balance between Pakistan’s immediate neighbour on its western border (Iran) and its friends in the Gulf. During the recent months, Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has improved; in September 2025, both countries signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. One of the clauses of the above agreement mentions: “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” In this context, what would Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia mean?

Besides Pakistan’s security interests, there is a huge Pakistani diaspora and working population in the Middle East. More than 4.5 million Pakistanis are working in the region; almost 2.5 to three million in Saudi Arabia and the UAE alone. The remittances from the Gulf countries (around 20 billion USD) constitute more than 50 per cent of Pakistan’s total remittances, and around five per cent of the country’s GDP. Any counterattack by Iran on the Gulf countries will not have an implication for Pakistan at a strategic level, but also at a popular level, as the above numbers would indicate. According to data, there are around 120-150 direct flights between different Gulf countries and Pakistan; Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah are well connected with multiple Pakistani cities.

4. Pakistan’s international interests and the newfound Trump friendship
Islamabad and Rawalpindi have been trying to cultivate the US. Both the PM and the Army Chief have been taking an extra step to appease President Trump. Any formal statement by Pakistan, whether in Islamabad or at the United Nations, will have to be cautious. Islamabad cannot afford not to condemn the attacks on Iran; the domestic audience would demand a strong response, even if it is rhetoric. Any formal statement from the Prime Minister’s Office or Pakistan’s foreign ministry will have to address the above. At the same time, Pakistan will have to walk a fine line in not upsetting its newfound friend in the White House – President Trump. 

Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations tried to balance by condemning both. According to media reports, he condemned “the initiation of unwarranted attacks against the Islamic Republic of Iran, in violation of international law” and “the attacks against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates,” with an emphasis that Pakistan “stands in solidarity with all these brotherly countries. These unprovoked attacks constitute blatant violations of the sovereignty of the brotherly Gulf states.”

If the situation gets worse between the US and Iran, and if Tehran has to continue targeting its immediate neighbourhood, how would Pakistan respond further?


About the author
D Suba Chandran is a Professor and Dean at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) Bengaluru. He coordinates the NIAS Pakistan Reader and edits the NIAS Pakistan Monitor. Email: subachandran@nias.res.in. 

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