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CWA # 1207, 18 January 2024
Conflict Weekly
The Red Sea Crisis: Attacks and Counter Attacks

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #211, 18 January 2024, Vol.5, No.3
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and the India Office of the KAS

Nuha Aamina

The Red Sea Crisis: Attacks and Counter Attacks
Nuha Aamina

In the news
On 12 January, in response to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea since November, the US and the UK launched missile strikes in Yemen. The US Lieutenant General Douglas Sims stated that over 150 munitions were used to strike 28 locations in Yemen. The development comes after the Houthis fired their 27th attack, an anti-ship ballistic missile, in the Gulf of Aden on 11 January.
 
On the same day, referring to the attacks, US President Joe Biden stated: “These targeted strikes are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation.”
 
The same day, Houthis’ Supreme Political Council threatened that “all American-British interests have become legitimate targets for the Yemeni armed forces in response to their direct and declared aggression against the Republic of Yemen.” A member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi, stated that his group neither attacked "the shores of America'' nor did they "move in the American islands'' and that "your strikes on our country are terrorism." 
 
In response, Russia called for a meeting at the UN Security Council (UNSC) to discuss the issue. Turkey’s President, Tayyip Erdogan, called the attacks a "disproportionate use of force," adding that this would "turn the Red Sea into a sea of blood" and the Houthis would respond to the US and UK "by using all of its force."  Foreign Minister of Denmark, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, stated that the country fully supports the strikes against Yemen's Houthis. 
 
Within the US, the progressive Democrats argued that Article 1 of the US Constitution mandates congressional authorisation for war, emphasising the "checks and balances" in the system. Biden's supporters argue that the defensive use of military force includes responding to attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria and commercial ships in the Red Sea.
 
On 14 January, the US military reported that its fighter aircraft intercepted and destroyed an anti-ship cruise missile launched from Houthi-controlled regions in Yemen toward a US destroyer in the Southern Red Sea. The Houthis accused that the aircraft was flying close to Yemen's airspace and coast.
 
On 15 January, the UK Minister of Defence, Grant Shapps, stated that the government was planning to increase the defence spending to 2.5 per cent of the GDP.  
 
On 16 January, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the country stayed out of the US-UK mission "because we (France) have a position that seeks to avoid any escalation."
 
On 17 January, the US relisted Houthis under the Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). The move aims at cutting off finances and weapon supplies used by Houthis to hijack and attack ships on the Red Sea.

Issues at large
First, the strategic significance of the Red Sea. The Red Sea hosts nearly 12 per cent of the world’s trade. The Bab el Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the sea, has strategic and economic importance as it is the shortest link between Europe and Asia. Since the Red Sea crisis began, global trade has fallen 1.3 per cent. Companies, including Maersk and DHL, send their ships on longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope. Since the 12 January attack, fifteen oil tankers have altered their course. Oil prices are rising; CNN reported on 12 January that the prices of Brent and US crude have increased by three per cent. War risk insurance premiums are expected to rise, especially those shipments linked to the US and the UK. According to the Dutch bank ING estimate, due to the diversion of 90 per cent of shipments in the first week of January, container rates on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route have soared from USD 1,170 in early December to USD 4,400 USD on 11 January. While trade volumes from China to Britain have significantly fallen from 2022 to 2023, more than EUR 50 billion worth of goods arrived in the UK, exceeding pre-Covid levels.
 
Second, the divided Europe. Italy, Spain and France are not taking part in the US and British offensive and not signing the joint statement by ten countries justifying the attacks. The Italian government cited two reasons - the requirement of a parliamentary authorisation and its preference to execute a "calming" policy in the Red Sea. However, the government later stated that Italy supported the "allied" countries' actions and their "right to defend their vessels in the interest of global trade flows and humanitarian assistance." For France, the concern was that the US-led strikes would diminish France's leverage in defusing tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. While Denmark and Germany were the main exceptions that backed the attack, Spanish Minister of Defence, Margarita Robles, stated that Spain would not carry out a military intervention as the country is “committed to peace and dialogue.”
 
Third, the escalation of tensions in the region. The Israel-Gaza conflict has led to a major regional overspill. What started as a display of solidarity by the Houthis has evolved into the direct involvement of several actors including the Houthis, the US and the US. The conflict has expanded in terms of geography and actors. The US and the UK believe that their offensive will subdue the Houthi attacks in the region. However, along with ships heading to Israel or Israeli-origin vessels, the UK and the US ships have now become new “legitimate targets." While Iran continues to stay out from direct involvement in the war in Gaza, its proxies including the Yemeni Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon and various groups in Syria and Iraq have been carrying out attacks on Israel conveying solidarity with the Palestinians.

In perspective
While the war in Gaza is escalating with the entry of new actors and geographies, the outcomes are causing a global impact. However, the irony is that although the US and the Houthis urge for a ceasefire in Gaza, their actions do not align with their shared goal. Additionally, with Houthis announcing to continue its attacks, it is uncertain whether the US-UK joint offensive will stop the Houthi attacks or resolve the problem of freedom of navigation. A confrontation would likely worsen the tensions and attract the entry of new actors. Iran would likely continue to support its proxies unless it is attacked directly. As long as the Israel-Gaza war continues, the root cause of other regional conflicts will start to crystallize, evolving into an uncertain future.

Conflict Weekly Special
War in Gaza: Fourteenth Week
Rosemary Kurian, Nuha Aamina, Rishita Verma and Gananthula Uma Maheshwari

War on the ground
On 18 January, Al Jazeera confirmed that as per information from local sources and video evidence, at least 16 Palestinians were killed overnight following Israeli shelling east of Rafah.
 
On 18 January, Al Jazeera reported that Qatar said that five trucks with supplies for hospitals and 45 Israeli prisoners arrived in Gaza on 17 January.
 
On 17 January, Palestinian militants engaged in combat with Israeli soldiers in northern Gaza and launched a salvo of rockets from farther south.
 
On 16 January, Al Jazeera cited the most recent statistics provided by the Gazan Health Ministry, as per which the Israeli shelling of Gaza killed at least 158 persons in the last 24 hours.
 
On 15 January, according to Al Jazeera, overnight Israeli attacks on Gaza's central and southern regions left dozens residents dead or injured.
 
On 14 January, Al Jazeera reported that a Rafah home was struck by an Israeli army strike overnight, killing 14 Palestinians. Overnight raids were conducted by Israel in several cities located in the West Bank.
 
On 13 January, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli forces stormed and searched homes in Qalqilya, Bethlehem, Hebron, and Nablus during nighttime raids.
 
On 12 January, Al Jazeera reported that in the Shawka neighbourhood in southern Gaza, an Israeli airstrike on a residential building resulted in the deaths of at least nine Palestinian civilians and the injuries of numerous more.
 
Regional responses
On 18 January, Reuters reported that a senior Lebanese official said that Hezbollah remains open to US diplomacy to avoid a huge war. The official said that Hezbollah was “ready to listen.”
 
On 17 January, Jordan’s army stated that one of its field hospitals in Khan Younis was destroyed due to Israeli shelling. The military held Israel “fully responsible for a flagrant breach of international law.”
 
On 17 January, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, said that attacks against Israel and its interests by the “Axis of Resistance” would end with the end of the war in Gaza.
 
On 16 January, Ayman Safadi, the Foreign Minister of Jordan, in his address at a press conference with Penny Wong, the Foreign Minister of Australia, said that Israel was creating impediments in providing aid to Gaza.
 
On 16 January, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, stated: “We agree that regional peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for the Palestinians through a Palestinian state.”
 
On 15 January, the Israeli Security Agency Shin Bet revealed that Iran was using fake online profiles to gather intelligence in Israel.
 
On 14 January, Sameh Shoukry, the Foreign Minister of Egypt, and Wang Yi, his Chinese counterpart, called for “an international summit for peace to find a just, comprehensive and lasting solution to the Palestinian cause by ending the (Israeli) occupation and establishing an independent, contiguous Palestine state.”
 
On 13 January, The Jerusalem Post reported that Mohammed Abdulsalam, the spokesperson of the Yemeni Houthis, said that the US strikes on Yemen had no visible impact on the Houthi's capacity to prevent Israeli-affiliated vessels from passing through the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea.
 
On 12 January, Iran termed the US attacks against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels as “arbitrary” and a “violation” of international law.
 
On 12 January, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President, criticised the US and UK’s strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. He called the attacks a disproportionate use of force and accused both countries of attempting to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood.”
 
Global responses
On 18 January, lawmakers in the European Parliament passed a resolution calling for an unconditional ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, “provided” the hostages were released and Hamas was dismantled.
 
On 17 January, the World Health Organisation (WHO) stated that more than 60,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been injured so far and have been deprived of food and water to survive.
 
On 17 January, Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, stated that the US had redesignated the Houthis as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist,” as a result of their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Sullivan stated that the step was taken to prevent funding to the group and deny access to financial markets to limit their violence in the Red Sea.
 
On 17 January, the US Central Command announced that the US military forces struck 14 missiles that were loaded by Houthis to be fired from Yemen.
 
On 16 January, the US Navy seized lethal weapons being supplied to the Houthi rebels from Yemen by Iran, during a nighttime raid near the coast of Somalia. The US Central Command noted that it was the first haul since the beginning of the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
 
On 16 January, according to Reuters, Espen Barth Eide, the Norwegian Foreign Minister, stated that they were working with the US and “concerned” Arab countries towards building a unified government for Palestine.
 
On 15 January, according to Al Jazeera, the US shot down an anti-ship missile fired against its vessel by the Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.
 
On 14 January, protesters gathered at a British air base to condemn the UK’s supply of weapons to Israel. The supply was through Cyprus in the port of Akrotiri, one of the two bases under the UK’s control.
 
On 15 January, Grant Shapps, the British Defence Secretary, stated that the UK would “wait and see” whether it was necessary to conduct further strikes against the Yemen-based Houthi militants.
 
On 13 January, Hage Geingob, the President of Namibia, stated that “Germany cannot morally express commitment to the United Nations Convention against genocide, including atonement for the genocide in Namibia, whilst supporting the equivalent of a holocaust and genocide in Gaza.” 
 
On 13 January, according to The Times of Israel, Bernie Sanders, a Democrat US Senator, urged Joe Biden, the President of the US, to distance himself from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, and his violence against the Palestinian people.

On 12 January, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Danish Foreign Minister, expressed his approval of the attacks by British and American forces against the Houthis in Yemen.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Akriti Sharma, Alka Bala, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Akhil Ajith, Rohini Reenum, Rishika Yadav, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham and Narmatha S

East and Southeast Asia
China: To not reject the use of force for Taiwan reunification  
On 17 January, the Chinese government stated that it would not reject the use of force on Taiwan for reunification and emphasised its willingness for peaceful reunification. The spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Chen Binhua, stated that the results of Taiwan’s elections do not change China’s position and will work towards unification. Chen added that using force is to counter interference from external forces and Taiwanese separatists. 

China: Nauru cuts ties with Taiwan to join with China
On 15 January, Taiwan lost Nauru to China after the country elected its new president and accused Beijing of pressuring Nauru. The Nauru government stated that “in the best interests” of Nauru and its people, “it was seeking full resumption of diplomatic relations with China and would cut ties with Taiwan.” On 17 January, China’s ambassador to Australia, Xian Qian, stated that Chinese presence in the Pacific Island countries would assist them with policing and would not harm Australia's security. He added that Nauru’s decision to choose China over Taiwan was the country’s choice. Xian emphasised that China intends to assist the Pacific Island countries with infrastructure and telecommunication investments. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he respects Taiwan’s election results and Nauru’s diplomatic decision.

Philippines: Congratulates new Taiwan President while reaffirming “One China” policy
On 16 January, President Ferdinand Marcos congratulated the newly elected President, Lai Ching-te, for his victory in the Taiwanese elections. The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs stated: “The message of President Marcos congratulating the new president was his way of thanking them for hosting our workers and holding a successful democratic process. Nevertheless, the Philippines reaffirms its one-China policy.”

North Korea: Labels South Korea as the main enemy
On 16 January, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un urged for an amendment in the constitution labelling South Korea as the “primary foe.” During his speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, Kim stated that reunification with South Korea is impossible. Kim added that North Korea must plan for “completely occupying, subjugating, and reclaiming South Korea in the event of a war, and South Koreans should also no longer be referred to as fellow countrymen.” 

North Korea: Tests hypersonic weapon missile
On 15 January, North Korea claimed that it successfully conducted a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead. It stated that the missile is designed to be more powerful and harder to detect to strike remote targets in the region. The state media, the Korean Central News Agency  (KCNA), reported that the test never affected the security of any neighbouring county and has no relation to the regional situation. The South Korean Ministry of Defence responded: “This behaviour by North Korea is a clear provocation that violates UN Security Council resolutions banning the use of ballistic missile technology, and we issue a stern warning and strongly urge it to stop immediately.”

Myanmar: Several attacks and counter-attacks between junta troops and resistance forces
On 16 January, the Irrawaddy reported the death of at least six civilians, including a five-year-old, in an attack by the junta forces on 15 January in the states of Rakhine and Chin. Troops, while raiding the town of Taw Kan in Sittwe Township, burnt 80 houses. Military attacks on the township continued as the junta forces shelled villages around Minbya and Paletwa townships. On 15 January, the Irrawaddy reported that the junta handed over the towns of Hopang and Panlong in Shan state to the United Wa State Army (UWSA). On 14 January, the Arakan Army (AA) announced the capture of Paletwa town in Chin state, approximately 20 kilometres from the Bangladesh border.  The Irrawaddy reported that the Brotherhood Alliance including the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA), the People’s Defense Force (PDF) and the Karenni Nationalities Democratic Front (KNDF) had seized 33 towns from the military regime through Operation 1027 since 27 October 2023. 

South Asia
Pakistan: Torkham border remains closed 
On 17 January, the Express Tribune reported that the Torkham border, a key crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan, remained closed for the fourth consecutive day. The border was shut down on 12 January and has continued since. Talks were held between officials from both sides to resolve the issue, however, remain inconclusive. Hundreds of trucks are being stranded on both sides, causing a loss of goods and revenue for the cross-border traders. The developments come after Pakistan made visas mandatory for the Afghan drivers of commercial vehicles. Pakistani authorities argued that the visa restrictions are “aimed at improving security, preventing smuggling and promoting legal bilateral trade.” Meanwhile, on 16 January, Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities threatened to permanently close the Torkham and Kharlaachi borders with Pakistan if a mutually agreeable solution is not met over the visa restrictions imposed on Afghan transporters.

Pakistan: Two terrorists killed in North Waziristan
On 13 January, Dawn reported that according to Inter-Services Public Relations Pakistan (ISPR), two militants were killed during an Intelligence-Based Operation (IBO) in the district of North Waziristan on 12 January. The ISPR stated that the operation was carried out following information about the presence of militants in the district. The ISPR added that the terrorists who were killed engaged in target killings among other terrorist acts. The ISPR further stated: “Sanitisation operation is being conducted to eliminate any other terrorist found in the area as the security forces of Pakistan are determined to wipe out the menace of terrorism from the country.”

Sri Lanka: Indian fishermen arrested
On 17 January, 18 Indian fishermen were arrested by the Sri Lankan Navy for illegal fishing in Sri Lankan waters. Two trawlers were seized. On 14 January, ten Indian fishermen were arrested and a trawler was seized. The fishermen were sent for further investigation by the security forces.

Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Iran: Targeted attacks in Iraq and Syria 
On 15 January, Al Jazeera reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted what it claimed as Israeli “spy headquarters” in Iraq’s Kurdish region. Additionally, they hit the targets that are allegedly linked to the Islamic State in northern Syria. The IRGC launched eleven ballistic missiles towards the targets, arguing that they were defending security and countering terrorism. The IRGC stated: “Ballistic missiles were used to destroy espionage centres and gatherings of anti-Iranian terrorist groups in the region.” Around eight explosions took place in the capital of the Kurdish region, Erbil. According to the Kurdish Regional Security Council, four people were killed and six were wounded. Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs  condemned the attacks terming it “a violation of the country’s sovereignty and the security of its people.” 

Israel: Three Israeli soldiers killed in Gaza, and three Palestinians killed in West Bank
On 17 January, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that three soldiers were killed during the fighting in northern Gaza, raising the total number of soldiers who died on the ground to 193. On 16 January, the IDF confirmed that another two reservists were injured; one during combat in northern Gaza and the other near the Gaza border. Meanwhile, on 15 January, according to the Ministry of Health of Palestine, Israeli soldiers killed at least three Palestinians in the West Bank. The official Palestinian news agency, Wafa, reported that in the southern West Bank village of Dura, two Palestinians were shot dead amid clashes with Israeli soldiers.

Lebanon: Israel attacks Hezbollah
On 16 January, Reuters quoted Lebanese security officials and the Israeli military that Israel launched airstrikes on a south Lebanon valley. Lebanese security officials told Reuters that there have been at least 16 airstrikes on the Suluki Valley. They described the attack as the “densest bombardment of a single location” since border-area conflicts started in November. The Israeli military stated it has carried out “aerial and artillery strikes” targeting Hezbollah weapons infrastructure and emplacements in the Suluki Valley “within a short amount of time.”

Iraq: Turkey targets Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq with airstrikes
On 13 January, according to Iraq’s Ministry of Defence, Turkey carried out bombings on several regions in Syria and northern Iraq that are associated with Kurdish groups. The attacks were carried out in retaliation to the nine Turkish soldiers who were killed during an attack on a Turkish military base in Iraq on 13 January. The ministry stated that 29 locations were targeted including “caves, bunkers, shelters, and oil installation” that belonged to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). 

Sudan: Government rejects mediation efforts of IGAD
On 16 January, BBC Africa reported that the Sudanese government rejected the peace mediation efforts led by the International Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African regional body. IGAD has been negotiating with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since the beginning of the conflict. Several regions of Sudan including the capital city of Khartoum, the cities of Omdurman, Bahri and Wad Madani are under the control of the RSF. The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it suspended dealings with IGAD over inviting the RSF leader Hamdan Dagalo to hold peace talks. 

Nigeria: Eight people dead as the boat turned over
On 16 January, BBC Africa reported that eight people including five women and three men lost their lives and several others went missing after a boat capsized in a river in Nigeria's north-central state of Niger state. The passengers were residents of the village of Dugga who were travelling to the neighbouring village of Kebbi to sell grains and sugarcane. According to the BBC, over 1200 people have lost their lives in boat accidents across Nigeria between 2018 and 2023. Overcrowding, lack of facilities including life jackets, ill maintenance and less number of boats for transportation are the major reasons behind this. 

Ethiopia: People die of starvation
On 16 January, BBC Africa quoted the Tigray officials that more than 225 including children have lost their lives due to severe drought in the war-torn Tigray region of Ethiopia since July 2023. Almost 95 per cent of the deaths were reported in the Edga Arbi region of Tigray. According to the UN, more than 20 million people need humanitarian assistance due to conflicts and climate issues.

Somalia: Al Shabab-led suicide bombing kills three 
On 16 January, Al Jazeera reported that a suicide bombing in Mogadishu killed three people and injured two others. Al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for the attack stating that they targeted local security officials. The group has been increasingly carrying out attacks since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared war on them. Recently, Al Shabab attacked a UN helicopter that crash-landed in a region under the control of the group. One passenger was killed and two others escaped; the remaining passengers are suspected to be under the control of the militants.

Somaliland: Somalia redirects Ethiopian fight headed to Somaliland
On 17 January, BBC reported that Somalia asked to return an Ethiopian flight that was carrying officials to Somaliland. Ethiopian officials were bound to reach Somaliland to discuss the controversial port deal that Somalia termed as an aggressive move threatening its sovereignty. Somalia denied permission to use its airspace as it considers the self-declared republic of Somaliland as an integral part of the country. The Somali Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) stated that flight ET8273 broke international law by failing to obtain clearance from the countries they passed through. The flight attempted to reach Somaliland's Hargeisa Airport. However, the regular flights are functioning as usual between Ethiopia and Somalia. 

Europe 
The UK: Signs security deal and announces additional military aid to Ukraine
On 12 January, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky and UK’s Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, signed a security accord. Sunak stated that the deal "formalizes a range of support the UK has been and will continue to provide for Ukraine's security, including intelligence sharing, cyber security, medical and military training, and defense industrial cooperation." The development comes after the UK announced an additional military support of GBP 200 million to Ukraine from 2025. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, the UK has pledged to work with international partners to support Ukraine with a large number of drones.

Romania: Farmers and truckers resume protests for faster subsidy payment
On 14 January, Reuters reported on Romania’s farmers and truckers resuming protests against high insurance rates and slow subsidy payments after failed negotiations with the government. The protests gradually expanded and resulted in blocking the northeastern border with Ukraine. With subsidies and compensations already in place, Romanian farmers have demanded faster payments due to the impact of the drought. After Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea, Romania turned into a central hub for Ukraine’s grains through the Constanta port, however, this has angered local farmers and truckers who were forced to compete with Ukrainian companies.

Russia: Defence ministry claims to have struck Ukrainian facilities using hypersonic missiles 
On 13 January, the Guardian reported on the Ukrainian air defence countering Russian missiles. According to the report, Russia used Kinzhal missiles, considered the hardest conventional missile, targeting five areas in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed to launch a major air strike on Ukraine’s military industry facilities. According to the ministry, long-range high-precision weapons including Kinzhal hypersonic and drones were used during the attack. It was reported to have successfully attacked Ukrainian facilities which produced 155 millimetre, 152 millimetre and 125 millimetre shells used in tanks and artillery. 

The Americas
Ecuador: Update on internal armed conflict
On 16 January, the Rio Times reported that the Minister of Economy and Finance of Ecuador, Juan Carlos Vega, and the Deputy Minister of Finance, Daniel Falconi, announced that the government sought a fund of USD 1.02 billion to respond to the internal armed conflict within the country. They explained that the country’s armed forces need the money to tackle the organised crime groups, 22 of which were labelled as “terrorist organisations” by Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa. On 13 January, Ecuador’s SNAI prison authorities stated that thanks to “security protocols and the joint working of the police and the national army,” the hostages throughout Ecuador were freed. Nearly 158 security guards and 20 administrative officers have been held hostage since 8 January in seven prisons. 

Brazil: At least 12 people killed following torrential rains
On 15 January, the state of Rio de Janeiro was flooded following torrential rains and landslides that killed at least 12 people. At least 18 towns throughout the state were at “high” risk of landslides. As a result of the rains that began on 14 January, roughly 2,400 military personnel were dispatched to the affected areas. They used ambulances, boats, drones and aircraft to rescue people and monitor the situation. On 14 January, Rio de Janeiro Mayor, Eduardo Paes, announced an emergency. 

Nicaragua: Catholic bishop and 18 priests released from prison and sent to the Vatican
On 14 January, Nicaragua authorities stated that Catholic bishop, Rolando Álvarez, and 18 other imprisoned clergy were handed over to the authorities in the Vatican. They were imprisoned as part of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's crackdown on the Catholic church after accusing them of supporting the 2018 anti-government protests. As per the press statement, the releases were part of negotiations with the Vatican to "make possible their trip to the Vatican." On the same day, Vatican News confirmed the arrival of the group, whom they had welcomed as “guests of the Holy See.” 

Colombia: Landslide kills 33 people
On 13 January, Colombia’s Vice President, Francia Marquez, stated that 33 people in Colombia, “mostly children,” were killed as a result of a rain-inflicted landslide. The mudslide-covered roadways connected the cities of Quibdo and Medellin in the province of Choco. On the same day, a Colombian police specialist rescue team rescued survivors and recovered bodies. Marquez added that “search and rescue actions” were ongoing. About 50 soldiers arrived to help with rescue operations, with police asserting that they had been working “hand-in-hand with emergency and relief organisations.” 

Canada: Government states that it does not support South Africa’s case against Israel 
On 12 January, Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, stated that Canada had dismissed South Africa’s “premise” that accused Israel of committing a “genocide” in Gaza. He cited a lack of “compelling evidence” presented to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to support the allegation. However, Canada would be watching the proceedings in the ICJ “very closely.” On the same day, Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, stated: “Our wholehearted support of the ICJ and its processes does not mean that we support the premise of the case brought forward by South Africa.” The Canadian Conservative Leader, Pierre Poilievre, criticised Trudeau and stated that the conservative party would have not rejected South Africa’s claim. 

The US: Death of three migrants increases tensions between Texas and federal government 
On 12 January, two children and a woman drowned in the Rio Grande River while crossing the US–Mexico border after Texas military officers prevented federal border officials from aiding them. This river is not a legal port of entry. The deaths intensified the migration dispute between Texas and the federal government. Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, has pushed to impose border controls. On the same day, in a filing in the US Supreme Court, the federal government accused Texas of installing new barriers to prevent US Border Patrol agents from reaching a boat ramp used to access the Rio Grande. In response, on 13 January, Texas authorities stated that the ramp was no longer being used and that it was “unaware of federal law enforcement’s current objections and was working promptly to address them.” 

Issues
Climate Change
Mauritius: Heavy rains ahead of cyclone Belal
On 15 January, BBC reported that cyclone Belal which was formed in the Indian Ocean hit the Mauritius and French territory of Réunion. A major part of the Réunion island is inaccessible to power and fresh water. People have been advised to stay indoors until the cyclone crosses the island. Two people died; one in Réunion and the other in Mauritius. Mauritius Meteorological Services stated: "Belal is dangerously approaching Mauritius and it represents a threat.” A curfew was imposed and the international airport, government offices, banks and other firms were shut in advance of expected torrential rain. Additionally, heavy destruction of properties was reported. Cyclones are common in southern Africa region during the January to March months with the southern hemisphere reaching their warmest temperatures. In 2022, the World Weather Attribution stated that climate change has caused an increase in rainfall in the region causing extreme weather conditions. 

Iceland: Second volcano eruption forces evacuation
On 14 January, a volcano in southwest Iceland erupted for the second time in less than a month. Nearly 3,800 inhabitants of Iceland’s Grindavik town who were forcefully evacuated during a volcano eruption in December 2023 were evacuated again due to the fear of another eruption. Although no lives were threatened, infrastructure is at risk of being damaged. As the eruption did not produce ample ash, it is not anticipated to cause any problems for air traffic. 

Newsmakers This Week
Who are the Jaish-al-Adl? 
Rohini Reenum

On 16 January, Iran launched missile and drone attacks in Pakistan, targeting the terror bases of a militant group, Jaish-al-Adl, in Balochistan’s Panjgur province. According to Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, two children were killed and three girls were injured during the attack. 

The Jaish-al-Adl (Army of Justice) is a Sunni Salafist militant group operational in the border regions of Pakistan and Iran. According to the Indian Express, it has bases in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and is one amongst the many Sunni militant separatist groups, fighting for the independence of the Sistan and Baluchestan, known as Asli Balouchestan province in Iran. The group has been described as a faction or an 'avatar' of the old Jundallah terrorist organisation based in Pakistan’s Balochistan. According to the Counter-Terrorism Guide of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) of the US, the Jundallah renamed itself Jaish al-Adl (JAA) in 2012. According to Al Jazeera, the group has been targeting and launching attacks against the Iranian border guards since 2013. 

This Week in History
18 January 1919: The Remembrance of the Paris Peace Conference
Anu Maria Joseph

18 January 1919 marks the formal opening of the Paris Peace Conference, the international conference where the victorious Allies formulated the terms of peace for the defeated Central Powers following the First World War. The conference was led by the leaders of the "Big Four" Allies, including Great Britain's Prime Minister, Lloyd George, French Prime Minister, Georges Clemenceau, Italian Prime Minister, Vittorio Orlando and US President, Woodrow Wilson. Representatives from 32 countries were involved in the conference. The Central Powers, including Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria were not invited. 

The major outcomes of the conference were the Covenant of the League of Nations and the five treaties, including the Treaty of Versailles, the Treaty of Sain-Germain, the Treaty of Neuily, the Treaty of Trianon and the Treaty of Sèvres. The Treaty of Versailles, signed on 28 June 1919 was the most important. It placed the responsibility of the war on "the aggression of Germany and her allies." Germany lost a tenth of its population which is nearly 6.1 million people and one-seventh of its territory and was asked to pay huge money in reparations of the war. The treaty, that found humiliating for the German people later led to political resentment and the onset of the Second World War. Besides, German and Ottoman overseas possessions were distributed between the British Empire and France.

It was evident that all the decisions in the conference were controlled by the "Big Fours." Nevertheless, the "Big Fours" had their own contradictory agendas. For France, the priority was to contain Germany, the single most focused agenda of the conference. For the British, the objective was to bring a "balance of power" against the potential prospect of a French hegemony. Meanwhile, the US aimed for "just peace" and the creation of a League of Nations with the implementation of the principle of national "self-determination." More than arriving at the terms of peace, the hard part was a compromise between the victorious Allies.

17 January 1991: The first Persian-Gulf War
Shamini Velayutham

On 17 January 1991, Iraq's oil refineries, air defences and other vital facilities were destroyed by a US-led offensive known as the ‘Operation Desert Storm’ that onset the first Persian-Gulf War. The coalition forces, led by the US, included forces from 30 other countries, including Britain, France, Germany, the Soviet Union, Japan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. This was an aircraft and naval bombardment offensive using the latest military technology, including Stealth bombers, Cruise missiles, “Smart” bombs with laser-guidance systems and infrared night-bombing equipment. Meanwhile, Iraq had support from Jordan, Algeria, Sudan, Yemen, Tunisia and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). 

The offence was in response to Iraq under Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait on 2 August 1990 aiming to seize its enormous oil riches. Hussein believed Iraq could become a major player in international negotiations if it possessed large oil reserves. The offensive began after Hussein failed the UNSC ultimatum to use “all necessary means” of force if Iraq refused to withdraw from Kuwait by 15 January 1991. 

On 24 February the coalition forces began Operation Desert Sabre, a ground offensive against Iraq's ground forces in Kuwait and southern Iraq. On 28 February 1991, the war officially ended with Hussein signing a ceasefire. 

About the authors
Nuha Amina, Rosemary Kurian and Alka Bala are Undergraduate Scholars at St Joseph’s University, Bangalore. 

Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD scholars at NIAS. 

Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. 

Femy Francis, Rishika Yadav, Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith and Shamini Velayutham are Research Assistants at NIAS. 

Navinan G, Gopikesav, Vetriselvi Baskaran and Narmatha S are postgraduate scholars at the University of Madras. Rishita Verma and Gananthula Uma Maheshwari are postgraduate scholars from Pondicherry University.

The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of any institutions or organisations.

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